Prognostic Factors in Meningococcal Disease: Development of a Bedside Predictive Model and Scoring System
Abstract
Context Meningococcal disease is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Development of a prognostic model based on clinical findings may be useful for identification and management of patients with meningococcal infection. Objectives To construct and validate a bedside model and scoring system for prognosis in meningococcal disease. Design Prospective, population-based study. Setting Twenty-four hospitals in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain. Patients A total of 907 patients with microbiologically proven meningococcal disease. Patients diagnosed with meningococcal disease from 1987 through 1990 were used to develop the prognostic model, and those diagnosed in 1991 and 1992 were used to validate it. Outcome measures Clinical independent prognostic factors for mortality in meningococcal disease. The association between outcome and independent prognostic factors was determined by logistic regression analysis. A scoring system was constructed and tested using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results Among 624 patients in the derivation set, 287 (46%) were male, the mean age was 12.4 years, and 34 patients (5.4%) died. Among 283 patients in the validation set, 124 (43.8%) were male, the mean age was 12.7 years, and 17 patients (6.0%) died. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of death were hemorrhagic diathesis (odds ratio [OR], 101; 95% confidence interval [CI], 30-333), focal neurologic signs (OR, 25; 95% CI, 7-83), and age 60 years or…
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Delays in CSF testing can have significant clinical consequences if therapy is delayed or incorrectly administered.
“This leads to delays, which can have significant clinical consequences if therapy is delayed or incorrectly administered (9–11).”
From Multicenter Evaluation of BioFire FilmArray Meningitis/Encephalitis Panel for Detection of Bacteria, Viruses, and Yeast in Cerebrospinal Fluid Specimens (2016) · cites this paper as [10]
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A REVIEW OF GOODNESS OF FIT STATISTICS FOR USE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS1
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Leber, A. L., Everhart, K., Balada-Llasat, J.-M., Cullison, J., Daly, J., Holt, S., Lephart, P., Salimnia, H., Schreckenberger, P. C., DesJarlais, S., et al. (2016) · Journal of Clinical Microbiology · doi:10.1128/jcm.00730-16 · Cited by 609 · see citing works
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Bårnes, G. K., Gudina, E. K., Berhane, M., Abdissa, A., Tesfaw, G., Abebe, G., Feruglio, S. L., Caugant, D. A., & Jørgensen, H. J. (2018) · BMC Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1186/s12879-018-3589-4 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Barquet, N.
- Affiliations
- Institut Català de la Salut (ES)
- Corresponding author
- Barquet, Nicolau
- Venue
- JAMA
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 1997-08-13
- Volume
- 278
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 491
- ISSN
- 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
- 0098-7484
- OpenAlex
- W2087872288
- Cited by
- 54
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2022: 1 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 1.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- JAMA (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Microbiology › Bacterial Infections and Vaccines
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Clinical Biochemistry › Bacterial Identification and Susceptibility Testing
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Sepsis Diagnosis and Treatment
- Keywords
- meningococcal disease, meningococcal meningitis, prognostic factors, mortality prediction, clinical scoring systems, bleeding tendency, focal neurologic signs, age as risk factor, mortality risk stratification, meningococcal surveillance
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Algorithms, Anti-Bacterial Agents, Central Nervous System Diseases, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Hemorrhagic Disorders, Hospitals, Urban, Humans, Infant, Male, Meningococcal Infections, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, ROC Curve, Severity of Illness Index, Spain, Models, Statistical, Multivariate Analysis, Logistic Models, Hospital Mortality, Outcome Assessment, Health Care
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