The DOI matches its Crossref record; 32 of the 32 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise
Open accessAbstract
Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevation thresholds established by the National Weather Service (NWS) at U.S. tide gauges over the last half‐century. For threshold levels below 0.5 m above high tide, the rates of annual exceedances are accelerating along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, primarily from evolution of tidal water level distributions to higher elevations impinging on the flood threshold. These accelerations are quantified in terms of the local RSLR rate and tidal range through multiple regression analysis. Along the U.S. West Coast, annual exceedance rates are linearly increasing, complicated by sharp punctuations in RSLR anomalies during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and we account for annual exceedance variability along the U.S. West and East Coasts from ENSO forcing. Projections of annual exceedances above local NWS nuisance levels at U.S. tide gauges are estimated by shifting probability estimates of daily maximum water levels over a contemporary 5‐year period following probabilistic RSLR projections of Kopp et al. (2014) for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We suggest a tipping point for coastal inundation (30 days/per year with a threshold exceedance) based on the evolution of exceedance probabilities. Under forcing associated with the local‐median projections of RSLR, the majority of locations surpass the tipping point over the next several decades regardless of specific RCP.
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Cites
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Sea level rise and its coastal impacts
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Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
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Sea-level rise and human migration
Hauer, M. E., Fussell, E., Mueller, V., Burkett, M., Call, M., Abel, K., McLeman, R., & Wrathall, D. (2019) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-019-0002-9 · Cited by 426
Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast
Woodworth, P. L., Melet, A., Marcos, M., Ray, R. D., Wöppelmann, G., Sasaki, Y. N., Cirano, M., Hibbert, A., Huthnance, J. M., Monserrat, S., et al. (2019) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s10712-019-09531-1 · Cited by 348
Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency
Taherkhani, M., Vitousek, S., Barnard, P. L., Frazer, N., Anderson, T. R., & Fletcher, C. H. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-62188-4 · Cited by 346
A comprehensive review of compound inundation models in low-gradient coastal watersheds
Santiago-Collazo, F. L., Bilskie, M. V., & Hagen, S. C. (2019) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.002 · Cited by 258
Metadata
- Authors
- Sweet, W. V., & Park, J.
- Venue
- Earth's Future
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2014-12
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 579-600
- ISSN
- 2328-4277 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1506222503
- Cited by
- 381
- References
- 32
- FWCI
- 26.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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