The DOI matches its Crossref record; 65 of the 65 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results
Open accessAbstract
An “offline” approach to DA is used, where static ensemble samples are drawn from existing CMIP climate‐model simulations to serve as the prior estimate of climate variables. We use linear, univariate forward models (“proxy system models (PSMs)”) that map climate variables to proxy measurements by fitting proxy data to 2 m air temperature from gridded instrumental temperature data; the linear PSMs are then used to predict proxy values from the prior estimate. Results for the LMR are compared against six gridded instrumental temperature data sets and 25% of the proxy records are withheld from assimilation for independent verification. Results show broad agreement with previous reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean 2 m air temperature, with millennial‐scale cooling, a multicentennial warm period around 1000 C.E., and a cold period coincident with the Little Ice Age (circa 1450–1800 C.E.). Verification against gridded instrumental data sets during 1880–2000 C.E. reveals greatest skill in the tropics and lowest skill over Northern Hemisphere land areas. Verification against independent proxy records indicates substantial improvement relative to the model (prior) data without proxy assimilation. As an illustrative example, we present multivariate reconstructed fields for a singular event, the 1808/1809 “mystery” volcanic eruption, which reveal global cooling that is strongly enhanced locally due to the presence of the Pacific‐North America wave pattern in the 500 hPa geopotential height field.
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Cites
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The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
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River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles
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An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Ridge regression: Biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems
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Statistical Analysis with Missing Data
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The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation
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The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
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Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability
Kalnay, E. (2002) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511802270 · Cited by 3,391 · cited 1×
“Specifically, we use an “offline” (no cycling) [Oke et al., 2002; Evensen, 2003; Bhend et al., 2012; Steiger et al., 2014; Matsikaris et al., 2015] data assimilation approach and a fixed prior to solve the update equation of the Kalman filter [see, e.g., Kalnay, 2003], xa = xp + K[y −(xp)].”
Method
Cited by
Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum
Osman, M. B., Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., Tardif, R., Hakim, G. J., King, J., & Poulsen, C. J. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4 · Cited by 574
Self-citationGlacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited
Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J., King, J., Malevich, S. B., Hakim, G. J., & Poulsen, C. J. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2617-x · Cited by 573
Self-citation(2023) · Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis · doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003 · Cited by 298
Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. H., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x · Cited by 231
Metadata
- Authors
- Hakim, G. J., Emile‐Geay, J., Steig, E. J., Noone, D., Anderson, D. M., Tardif, R., Steiger, N., & Perkins, W. A.
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2016-06-22
- Volume
- 121
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 6745-6764
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W2401390312
- Cited by
- 293
- References
- 65
- FWCI
- 14.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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