Improved modeling of snow and glacier melting by a progressive two‐stage calibration strategy with GRACE and multisource data: How snow and glacier meltwater contributes to the runoff of the Upper Brahmaputra River basin?

Abstract

Snow and glacier melting and accumulation are important processes of the hydrological cycle in the cryosphere, e.g., high‐mountain areas. Glaciers and snow cover respond to climate change notably over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as the Earth's Third Pole where complex topography and lack of ground‐based observations result in knowledge gaps in hydrological processes and large uncertainties in model output. This study develops a snow and glacier melt model for a distributed hydrological model (Coupled Routing and Excess Storage model, CREST) using the Upper Brahmaputra River (UBR) basin in the TP as a case study. Satellite and ground‐based precipitation and land surface temperature are jointly used as model forcing. A progressive two‐stage calibration strategy is developed to derive model parameters, i.e., (1) snow melting processes (stage I) and (2) glacier melting and runoff generation and routing using multisource data (stage II). Stage‐I calibration is performed using the MODIS snow cover area (SCA) product and a blending snow water equivalent (SWE) product combined with partial in situ measurements. Stage‐II calibration is based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite‐derived total water storage (TWS) changes and streamflow observed at a gauging station of the lower reach of the UBR. Results indicate that the developed two‐stage calibration method provides more reliable streamflow, snow (both SCA and SWE), and TWS change simulations against corresponding observations than commonly used methods based on streamflow and/or SCA performance. The simulated TWS time series shows high consistency with GRACE counterparts for the study period 2003–2014, and overestimated melting rates and contributions of glacier meltwater to runoff in previous studies are improved to some degree by the developed model and calibration strategy. Snow and glacier runoff contributed 10.6% and 9.9% to the total runoff, and the depletion rate of glacier mass was ∼ −10 mm/a (∼ −2.4 Gt/a, Gt/a is gigaton (km 3 of water) per year) over the UBR basin during the study period. This study is valuable in examining the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes of cryospheric regions and providing an improved approach for simulating more reliable hydrological variables over the UBR basin and potentially similar regions globally.