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Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method
Abstract
Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over twenty-five years ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences." "Requiring only a basic, introductory knowledge of probability and statistics, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method.
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“Convergence to low variability in terms of mean and standard deviations is reached at M=103, where both metrics stabilized with minimal variation beyond that point and correspond to the plateau of the coefficient of variation [40].”
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Application of Monte Carlo Analysis to Life Cycle Assessment
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A comparison of the parameter estimating procedures for the Michaelis-Menten model
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“A variety of variance-reduction techniques are available, including control variates, antithetic variates, stratified sampling, correlated sampling and importance sampling;([10-12]) however, none are routinely used within economic models.”
MethodComparison of three different kinematic sensor assemblies for locomotion study
Giansanti, D., & Maccioni, G. (2005) · Physiological Measurement · doi:10.1088/0967-3334/26/5/010 · Cited by 32
Peeta, S., & Zhou, C. (1999) · Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies · doi:10.1016/s0968-090x(99)00023-6 · Cited by 31
“A Monte Carlo simulation (Rubinstein, 1981) based approach is used to solve the a priori stochastic DTA problem.”
MethodLoad modeling using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process
Perninge, M., Amelin, M., & Knazkins, V. (2008) · IEEE International Power and Energy Conference · doi:10.1109/pecon.2008.4762586 · Cited by 31
Parallel Funding of R&D Tasks with Probabilistic Outcomes
Bard, J. F. (1985) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.31.7.814 · Cited by 31
A practical methodology for the statistical design of complex logic products for performance
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Small failure probability: principles, progress and perspectives
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“In estimating small failure probabilities, variance-reduced simulation methods and other efficient simulation techniques have been developed to reduce the com- I. Lee et al. 1 3 326 Page 24 of 34 putational burden instead of CMC requiring excessive number of simulations.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialWavelet density-based adaptive importance sampling method
Dai, H., Zhang, H., Rasmussen, K. J. R., et al. (2014) · Structural Safety · doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2014.02.003 · Cited by 30
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Jung, Y., Lee, J., Lee, M., et al. (2020) · Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization · doi:10.1007/s00158-019-02455-9 · Cited by 30
“On the other hands, the sampling methods mainly use random sampling in the probabilistic domain (Denny 2001; Rubinstein and Kroese 2016).”
Soltanpour, Z., Mohammadian, Y., & Fakhri, Y. (2021) · Toxicology and Industrial Health · doi:10.1177/0748233720981218 · Cited by 30
“A total of 10,000 replicates were performed using the Oracle Crystal ball software version 11.1.2 (EPA, 2017; Rubinstein and Kroese, 2016).”
MethodInfluentialMining Optimal Policies: A Pattern Recognition Approach to Model Analysis
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Life cycle assessment as a tool for evaluating chemical processes at industrial scale: a review
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“The usability of MCS had efficient performance to produce knowledge extraction of the best predictors while considering the uncertainties of meteorological and hydrological variables in streamflow forecasts (Adeloye, 2012; Kroese et al. 2014; Rubinstein and Kroese 2016).”
MethodSafety assessment of trajectories for navigation in uncertain and dynamic environments
Althoff, D., Wollherr, D., & BUSS, M. J. (2011) · Proceedings - IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation/Proceedings · doi:10.1109/icra.2011.5980115 · Cited by 31
“where ui,n is a random sample from f (ui ) as proposed by Rubinstein and Kroese (1981) and Ns is the number of samples.”
BackgroundThe PEAR Method for Sample Sizes in Multiple Linear Regression
Brooks, G. P., & Barcikowski, R. S. (2012) · General Linear Model Journal · Cited by 30
Schoener, T. W. (1988) · Evolutionary Ecology · doi:10.1007/bf02071585 · Cited by 30
An analytically derived cooling schedule for simulated annealing
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“[15, 17 ]). As the temperature parameter decreases to zero, the Boltzmann distribution concentrates more around the global optimum.”
BackgroundGalerkin Sampling Method for Stochastic Mechanics Problems
Spanos, P. D., & Zeldin, B. A. (1994) · Journal of Engineering Mechanics · doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9399(1994)120:5(1091 · Cited by 30
Using Monte Carlo method for ranking efficient DMUs
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“The BER is estimated via Monte Carlo simulation [ 14 ].”
MethodChung, Y., & Peleg, A. (2005) · Nonlinearity · doi:10.1088/0951-7715/18/4/007 · Cited by 30
Computer generation of dirichlet random vectors
Narayanan, A. (1990) · Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation · doi:10.1080/00949659008811250 · Cited by 30
Bayesian reinforcement learning reliability analysis
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Ma, T., Liu, K., Qiu, Y., et al. (2024) · Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering · doi:10.1007/s00603-024-04206-9 · Cited by 29
“Monte Carlo simulation is a commonly used method that involves sampling many random distributions of uncertain parameters and evaluating the response results of the model (Rubinstein and Kroese 2016).”
A cascading failure model based on AC optimal power flow: Case study
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“These values help solve the problem as a deterministic problem (Rubinstein and Kroese, 2016).”
BackgroundEstimation of posterior density functions from a posterior sample
Oh, M. (1999) · Computational Statistics & Data Analysis · doi:10.1016/s0167-9473(98)00068-1 · Cited by 29
Internal bremsstrahlung spectra of β− particle emitters using the Monte Carlo method
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Factorized high dimensional model representation for structural reliability analysis
., B. N. R., & Chowdhury, R. (2008) · Engineering Computations · doi:10.1108/02644400810909580 · Cited by 29
“In these cases, simulation methods (Schuëller et al., 2004; Au and Beck, 2001; Melchers, 1989; Bjerager, 1988; Rubinstein, 1981) seem to be a suitable alternative.”
MethodA saddlepoint approximation based simulation method for uncertainty analysis
Huang, B., Du, X., & Lakshminarayana, R. E. (2006) · International Journal of Reliability and Safety · doi:10.1504/ijrs.2006.010698 · Cited by 29
“Some variants of MCS (Dey and Mahadevan, 1998; Moarefzadeh and Melchers, 1999; Rubinstein, 1981), such as importance sampling and adaptive importance sampling, have been developed to address rare events with small probability.”
BackgroundReliability-based optimal load factors for seismic design of buildings
Bojórquez, J., Ruiz, S. E., Ellingwood, B. R., et al. (2017) · Engineering Structures · doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2017.08.046 · Cited by 29
Probabilistic analysis of time-dependent deflections of RC flexural members
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Chapter IX Global optimization
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Combined Robust Parameter and Tolerance Design Using Orthogonal Arrays
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“In this study, a Monte Carlo simulation is adopted [ 2 ].”
MethodGeysen, S., Escalona, V. H., VERLINDEN, B. E., Aertsen, A., Geeraerd, A. H., Michiels, C. W., van Impe, J. F. M., & Nicolaï, B. M. (2006) · International Journal of Food Microbiology · doi:10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2006.04.044 · Cited by 29
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Uncertainty in growth and yield projections due to annual variation of diameter growth
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Effect of heterogeneous oxygen delivery on the oxygen distribution in skeletal muscle
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“Using this sequence, sequences following arbitrary probability distributions can be constructed using the procedures described in [28].”
MethodInfluentialOutput Analysis for Simulation
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On Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Electricity Markets
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Statistical and machine learning approaches for energy efficient buildings
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“2005b) and because a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rubinstein 1981), requiring multiple model repetitions, is often used for ABM, significant computational power is consumed during each step of agent-based modeling (e.g., development, calibration, validation, and experimentation).”
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“estimation approach additionally includes an adaptive sample size procedure based on Student’s t test and two variance reduction techniques: the method of common random numbers and importance sampling [44].”
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“See for example Devroye (1986) or Rubinstein (1981).”
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“We first apply this importance sampling approach [33] to WMC, yielding the MC-WMC algorithm.”
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Hemodynamic Flow Modeling Through an Abdominal Aorta Aneurysm Using Data Mining Tools
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“sequently, the resulting data are postprocessed to estimate the output statistics [10].”
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The Utilization of Outpatient Medical Services in Japan
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A 1-1 poly-t random variable generator with application to Monte Carlo integration
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“Repeated rounds of Monte Carlo simulation were used to find the most efficient and robust experimental design (12, 23, 24).”
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“(10) cannot be solved analytically, but by using Monte Carlo method [71, 72], we can approximate the cost function as”
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Importance Sampling for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis
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“Various methods, including first and second order reliability methods (FORM & SORM) [2], random simulation methods [3], [4], surrogate model-based methods [5]–[7], etc.”
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“These include, among others, crude Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) (Rubinstein and Kroese 2016; Fishman 1996), importance sampling (Echard et al. 2013), sub-set simulation (SS) (Au and Beck 2001), first or second order reliability method (FORM & SORM) (Rackwitz and Flessler 1978; Der Kiureghian and De…”
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A Deep-Learning-Based Surrogate Model for Thermal Signature Prediction in Laser Metal Deposition
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“%) and usually the higher the better [51].”
BackgroundJangjoo, M. A., Allahbakhshi, M., & Mirzaei, H. R. (2023) · Electric Power Systems Research · doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2023.109174 · Cited by 27
Kim, J., Qi, M., Park, J., & Moon, I. (2023) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121015 · Cited by 28
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“Subsequently, each particle in the sample population is assigned to an appropriately selected volume, Vi , and an appropriately selected value of the internal property, xi , so that the particle array at time zero, Ns(0), closely represents the initial distribution, according to the “inverse transform method” (Rubinst…”
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“The estimation of the likelihood function is performed using the Monte Carlo simulation method (see [18]) with ns = 350 simulations for which the convergence is achieved.”
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“For this purpose, we use the variance reduction technique known as importance sampling (Rubinstein, 1981).”
MethodDeformation band populations in fault damage zone—impact on fluid flow
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“The standard estimation has the following form [ 27 ]:”
BackgroundMultilevel model reduction for uncertainty quantification in computational structural dynamics
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“…by The hyperparameter δ A of random matrix [ G n (δ A ) ] has to verify 0 δ δ max with δ max given by Using the Monte-Carlo simulation method [122], the C-SROM allows for computing the random displacements vector U (ω) associated with U (ω) , in which the random complex vector Q (ω) of the…”
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Quantum-enhanced analysis of discrete stochastic processes
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Adaptive radial-based direction sampling: some flexible and robust Monte Carlo integration methods
Bauwens, L., Bos, C. S., van Dijk, H. K., et al. (2004) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2003.12.002 · Cited by 27
“See e.g. Rubinstein (1981) (p. 86-87).”
Estimation of performance measures for product form cellular mobile communications networks
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A global least mean square algorithm for adaptive IIR filtering
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“with as where is the global minimum of The application of this technique to the LMS algorithm requires a gradient operation on the functional i.e., As described in [5], [ 14 ], if is a standard multinormal distribution, then the unbiased gradient estimate of the smoothed functional when only the gradient of is known c…”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Rubinstein, R. Y., & Kroese, D. P.
- ORCID
- Kroese, Dirk P.
- Venue
- Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2016-11-21
- ISSN
- 1940-6347 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2147632348
- Cited by
- 3,356
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 131 · 2025: 182 · 2024: 168 · 2023: 157 · 2022: 167 · 2021: 162 · 2020: 171 · 2019: 139 · 2018: 118 · 2017: 66 · 2016: 41
- FWCI
- 52.82
- Type
- book
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Wiley series in probability and statistics (publishedVersion)
- CERN Document Server (European Organization for Nuclear Research) (submittedVersion)
- International Linear Collider (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Simulation Techniques and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Numerical Analysis › Mathematical Approximation and Integration
- Keywords
- Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic simulation, random number generation, probability distributions, variance reduction, Markov chain Monte Carlo
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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