Radiologically Isolated Syndrome: 10‐Year Risk Estimate of a Clinical Event
Open accessAbstract
Objective: We have previously identified male sex, younger age, and the presence of spinal cord lesions as independent factors that increase the 5‐year risk for evolution from radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) to multiple sclerosis. Here, we investigate risk factors for the development of a clinical event using a 10‐year, multinational, retrospectively identified RIS dataset. Methods: RIS subjects were identified according to 2009 RIS criteria and followed longitudinally as part of a worldwide cohort study. We analyzed data from 21 individual databases from 5 different countries. Associations between clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics and the risk of developing a first clinical event were determined using multivariate Cox regression models. Results: Additional follow‐up data were available in 277 of 451 RIS subjects (86% female). The mean age at RIS diagnosis was 37.2 years (range, 11–74 years), with a median clinical follow‐up of 6.7 years. The cumulative probability of a first clinical event at 10 years was 51.2%. Age, positive cerebrospinal fluid for oligoclonal bands, infratentorial lesions on MRI, and spinal cord lesions, were baseline independent predictors associated with a subsequent clinical event. The presence of gadolinium‐enhanced lesions during follow‐up was also associated with the risk of a seminal event. The reason for MRI and gadolinium‐enhancing lesions at baseline did not influence the risk of a subsequent clinical event. Interpretation: Approximately half of all individuals with RIS experience a first clinical event within 10 years of the index MRI. The identification of independent predictors of risk for symptom onset may guide education and clinical management of individuals with RIS. ANN NEUROL 2020;88:407–417.
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Oligoclonal bands constitute an independent risk factor for conversion of RIS to MS.
“the finding that oligoclonal bands constitute an independent risk factor for conversion of RIS to MS.”
From Applying the 2024-revised McDonald criteria for multiple sclerosis using conventional diagnostic tools: a single-centre prospective cohort study in Germany (2026) · cites this paper as [30]
The Procedures section defines positive CSF as either an elevated IgG index or at least two unique oligoclonal bands. The Discussion identifies positive CSF as an independent predictor of a first clinical event in RIS, but the paper does not establish oligoclonal bands alone as an independent predictor of conversion to MS. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIntrathecal inflammation is associated with a higher risk of conversion to MS.
“frequently demonstrated intrathecal inflammation, which is associated with a higher risk of conversion to MS.”
From Applying the 2024-revised McDonald criteria for multiple sclerosis using conventional diagnostic tools: a single-centre prospective cohort study in Germany (2026) · cites this paper as [30]
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References 30 · Cited by 204
Research works printed but not linked: 27
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- Authors
- Lebrun‐Frenay, C., Kantarci, O., Siva, A., Sormani, M. P., Pelletier, D., Okuda, D. T., & for the 10‐year RISC study group on behalf of SFSEP, O.
- Affiliations
- Côte d'Azur University, UR2CA, URRIS CHU de Nice, Pasteur2 Hospital Nice France
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- Department of Neurology Istanbul University Cerrahpasa School of Medicine Istanbul Turkey
- Ospedale Policlinico San Martino (IT)
- University of Southern California (US)
- The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center (US)
- Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques (FR)
- Venue
- Annals of Neurology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2020-06-29
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 407-417
- ISSN
- 0364-5134 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-8249
- OpenAlex
- W3033592822
- Cited by
- 204
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 47 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 3
- FWCI
- 14.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- Locations
- Annals of Neurology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CINECA IRIS Institutial Research Information System (University of Genoa) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- CINECA IRIS Institutial Research Information System (University of Genoa) (submittedVersion)
- Use Siena air (University of Siena) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-10-COHO-0002)
- National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (K23NS101099)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Multiple Sclerosis Research Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Polyomavirus and related diseases
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Keywords
- radiologically isolated syndrome, multiple sclerosis, risk factors, spinal cord lesions, infratentorial lesions, gadolinium-enhancing lesions, oligoclonal bands, cerebrospinal fluid, MRI lesions, longitudinal follow-up
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Demyelinating Diseases, Female, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Middle Aged, Multiple Sclerosis, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Disease Progression, Young Adult
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