Predicting future citation behavior
Abstract
In this article we further develop the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. More precisely, we investigate the conditional distribution—and its mean—of the number of citations to a paper after time t, given the number of citations it has received up to time t. In an important parametric case it is shown that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, this being interpretable as an example of a success‐breeds‐success phenomenon.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The more frequently a publication is cited, the more frequently it will be cited in future.
“the more frequently a publication is cited, the more frequently it will be cited in future”
From What do citation counts measure? A review of studies on citing behavior (2008) · cites this paper as Burrell, 2003
The expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number.
“the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number”
From What do citation counts measure? A review of studies on citing behavior (2008) · cites this paper as Burrell, 2003
Cited by
Sorted by citations
What do citation counts measure? A review of studies on citing behavior
Bornmann, L., & Daniel, H. (2008) · Journal of Documentation · doi:10.1108/00220410810844150 · Cited by 1,607 · see citing works
A Review of Theory and Practice in Scientometrics
Mingers, J., & Leydesdorff, L. (2015) · European Journal of Operational Research · doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.04.002 · Cited by 1,002 · see citing works
A mathematical theory of citing
Simkin, M. V., & Roychowdhury, V. P. (2007) · Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology · doi:10.1002/asi.20653 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
- Authors
- Burrell, Q. L.
- Corresponding author
- Burrell, Quentin L.
- Venue
- Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2003-01-30
- Volume
- 54
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 372-378
- ISSN
- 1532-2882 (ISSN-L)
- 1532-2890
- OpenAlex
- W1991901918
- Cited by
- 80
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 1.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Information Systems › Web visibility and informetrics
- Keywords
- citation behavior, obsolescence, citation growth, bibliometric analysis
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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