Evidence for widespread changes in the structure, composition, and fire regimes of western North American forests
Open accessAbstract
Implementation of wildfire‐ and climate‐adaptation strategies in seasonally dry forests of western North America is impeded by numerous constraints and uncertainties. After more than a century of resource and land use change, some question the need for proactive management, particularly given novel social, ecological, and climatic conditions. To address this question, we first provide a framework for assessing changes in landscape conditions and fire regimes. Using this framework, we then evaluate evidence of change in contemporary conditions relative to those maintained by active fire regimes, i.e., those uninterrupted by a century or more of human‐induced fire exclusion. The cumulative results of more than a century of research document a persistent and substantial fire deficit and widespread alterations to ecological structures and functions. These changes are not necessarily apparent at all spatial scales or in all dimensions of fire regimes and forest and nonforest conditions. Nonetheless, loss of the once abundant influence of low‐ and moderate‐severity fires suggests that even the least fire‐prone ecosystems may be affected by alteration of the surrounding landscape and, consequently, ecosystem functions. Vegetation spatial patterns in fire‐excluded forested landscapes no longer reflect the heterogeneity maintained by interacting fires of active fire regimes. Live and dead vegetation (surface and canopy fuels) is generally more abundant and continuous than before European colonization. As a result, current conditions are more vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of seasonal and episodic increases in drought and fire, especially under a rapidly warming climate. Long‐term fire exclusion and contemporaneous social‐ecological influences continue to extensively modify seasonally dry forested landscapes. Management that realigns or adapts fire‐excluded conditions to seasonal and episodic increases in drought and fire can moderate ecosystem transitions as forests and human communities adapt to changing climatic and disturbance regimes. As adaptation strategies are developed, evaluated, and implemented, objective scientific evaluation of ongoing research and monitoring can aid differentiation of warranted and unwarranted uncertainties.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
With more than 4,000 individual tree records and more than 400 site records published for the region, there is a robust pattern of frequent (once or twice per decade) surface fires that largely left mature trees alive but occasionally killed patches of trees up to 100 ha.
“With more than 4,000 individual tree records and more than 400 site records published for the region (21), there is a robust pattern of frequent (once or twice per decade) surface fires that largely left mature trees alive but occasionally killed patches of trees up to 100 ha (9).”
From Tree rings reveal persistent Western Apache (Ndee) fire stewardship and niche construction in the American Southwest (2025) · cites this paper as [9]
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredDry pine forests in the Western United States require frequent, low-severity surface fires for their ecological integrity.
“While this study continues to reinforce the perspective that dry pine forests in the Western United States require frequent, low-severity surface fires for their ecological integrity (9)”
From Tree rings reveal persistent Western Apache (Ndee) fire stewardship and niche construction in the American Southwest (2025) · cites this paper as [9]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet
References 333 · Cited by 400
Research works printed but not linked: 16
- Baker, W. L., and D. Ehle. 2003. Uncertainty in fire history and restoration of ponderosa pine forests in the western United States. Pages 319– 333 in P. N. Omi, and L. A. Joyce, editors. Fire, fuel treatments, and ecological restoration: Conference proceedings. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
- Collins, B. M., J. D. Miller, and S. L. Stephens. 2016. To the editor: a response to Hanson and Odion. Natural Areas Journal 36: 234– 242.
- Falk, D. A. 2013. Are Madrean ecosystems approaching tipping points? Anticipating interactions of landscape disturbance and climate change. Pages 40– 47 in G. J. Gottfried, P. F. Ffolliott, B. S. Gebow, L. G. Eskew, and L. C. Collins, comps. 2013. Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III; 2012 May 1‐5; Tucson, AZ. Proceedings. RMRS‐P‐67. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
- Falk, D. A., and T. W. Swetnam. 2003. Scaling rules and probability models for surface fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests. Pages 301– 318 in P. N. Omi and L. A. Joyce, editors. Fire, Fuel Treatments and Ecological Restoration: Conference Proceedings: April 16‐18, 2002. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRSP‐29. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
- Grafe, E., and P. Horsted. 2002. Exploring with custer: the 1874 Black Hills expedition. Golden Valley Press, Custer, South Dakota, USA.
- Hanberry, B. B., and R. K. Dumroese. 2020. Biodiversity and representative species in dry pine forests. Pages 85– 100 in R. K. Dumroese and W. K. Moser, editors. Northeastern California plateaus bioregion science synthesis. RMRS‐GTR‐409. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
- Hann, W. J., et al. 1997. Chapter 3: Landscape dynamics of the basin. In T. M. Quigley and S. J. Arbelbide, editors. An assessment of ecosystem components in the interior Columbia basin and portions of the Klamath and Great Basins: Volume II. PNW‐GTR‐405. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon, USA.
- Higgs, E., G. Bartley, and A. Fisher. 2009. The Mountain legacy project. Second edition. University of Victoria Press, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
- Keane, R. E. 2019. Applying ecosystem and landscape models in natural resource management. CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group, Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
- Keane, R. E., R. Parsons, and M. G. Rollins 2004. Predicting fire regimes across multiple scales. Pages 55– 69 in A. Perera and L. Buse, editors. Emulating natural disturbances: concepts and techniques. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
- Skinner, C. N., A. H. Taylor, J. K. Agee, C. E. Briles, and C. L. Whitlock. 2018. Klamath mountains bioregion. Pages 171– 194 in J. W. van Wagtendonk, N. G. Sugihara, S. L. Stephens, A. E. Thode, K. E. Shaffer, and J. Fites‐Kaufman, editors. Fire in California’s ecosystems. Second edition. University of California Press, Berkeley, California, USA.
- Stephens, S. L., J. W. Kanem, J. D. Stuart. 2018b. North coast bioregion. Pages 149– 170 in J. Van Wagtendonk, editor. Fire in California’s ecosystems. Second edition. University of California Press, Berkeley, California, USA.
- Sugihara, N. G., J. W. van Wagtendonk, and J. Fites‐Kaufman. 2018. Fire as an ecological process. Pages 58– 74 in J. W. van Wagtendonk, N. G. Sugihara, S. L. Stephens, A. E. Thode, K. E. Shaffer, and J. A. Fites‐Kaufman, editors. Fire in California’s ecosystems. Second edition. University of California Press, Berkeley, California, USA.
- Swetnam, T., and C. Baisan. 1996. Historical fire regime patterns in the southwestern United States since 1700. Pages 11– 32 in C. D. Allen, editor. Fire Effects in Southwestern Forests, Proceedings of the Second La Mesa Fire Symposium, March 29–31, 1994, Los Alamos, New Mexico. RM‐GTR‐286. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station.
- van Wagtendonk, J. W., J. A. Fites‐Kaufman, H. D. Safford, M. P. North, and B. M. Collins. 2018a. Sierra Nevada bioregion. Pages 249– 278 in J. van Wagtendonk, N. G. Sugihara, S. L. Stephens, A. E. Thode, K. E. Shaffer, and J. Fites‐Kaufman, editors. Fire in California’s ecosystems. Second edition. University of California Press, Berkeley, California, USA.
- van Wagtendonk, J. W., N. G. Sugihara, S. L. Stephens, A. E. Thode, K. E. Shaffer, and J. Fites‐Kaufman, editors. 2018b. Fire in California’s ecosystems. Univ of California Press, Berkeley, California, USA.
- Authors
- Hagmann, R. K., Hessburg, P. F., Prichard, S. J., Povak, N. A., Brown, P. M., Fulé, P. Z., Keane, R. E., Knapp, E. E., Lydersen, J. M., Metlen, K. L., Reilly, M. J., Sánchez Meador, A. J., Stephens, S. L., Stevens, J. T., Taylor, A. H., Yocom, L. L., Battaglia, M. A., Churchill, D. J., Daniels, L. D., Falk, D. A., Henson, P., Johnston, J. D., Krawchuk, M. A., Levine, C. R., Meigs, G. W., Merschel, A. G., North, M. P., Safford, H. D., Swetnam, T. W., & Waltz, A. E. M.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- US Forest Service (US)
- Rocky Mountain Tree‐Ring Research Fort Collins Colorado 80526 USA
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- Rocky Mountain Research Station (US)
- Pacific Southwest Research Station (US)
- California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (US)
- The Nature Conservancy (US)
- Ecological Restoration Institute Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona 86011 USA
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Fort Collins Science Center (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Utah State University (US)
- United States Department of Agriculture (US)
- Washington Department of Natural Resources (US)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- University of Arizona (US)
- Oregon Fish and Wildlife Office USDI Fish & Wildlife Service Portland Oregon 97232 USA
- Oregon State University (US)
- Spatial Informatics Group Pleasanton California 94566 USA
- Corresponding author
- Hagmann, R. K.
- ORCID
- Hagmann, R. K.
- Hessburg, P. F.
- Prichard, S. J.
- Povak, N. A.
- Brown, P. M.
- Fulé, P. Z.
- Keane, R. E.
- Knapp, E. E.
- Lydersen, J. M.
- Metlen, K. L.
- Reilly, M. J.
- Sánchez Meador, A. J.
- Stephens, S. L.
- Stevens, J. T.
- Yocom, L. L.
- Battaglia, M. A.
- Churchill, D. J.
- Daniels, L. D.
- Falk, D. A.
- Krawchuk, M. A.
- Levine, C. R.
- Meigs, G. W.
- Merschel, A. G.
- North, M. P.
- Safford, H. D.
- Swetnam, T. W.
- Waltz, A. E. M.
- Venue
- Ecological Applications
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2021-10-12
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- e02431-e02431
- ISSN
- 1051-0761 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-5582
- PMC
- PMC9285092
- OpenAlex
- W3187547767
- Cited by
- 400
- References
- 333
- Citations by year
- 2026: 75 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 83 · 2023: 82 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 12
- FWCI
- 23.26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Ecological Applications (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Keywords
- fire regimes, fire suppression, tropical dry forest, wildfire management, climate change adaptation, drought, fuel continuity, vegetation spatial patterns, forest structure and composition, social-ecological systems, ecosystem transitions, European colonization
- MeSH terms
- Wildfires, Fires, Humans, North America, Ecosystem, Forests
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review