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“How Probable is Probable? A Numerical Translation of Verbal Probability Expressions.”

Beyth‐Marom, Ruth·1982·Journal of Forecasting

DOI 10.1002/for.3980010305

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Abstract

Abstract The reported experiment took place in a professional forecasting organization accustomed to giving verbal probability assessments (‘likely’, ‘probable’, etc.). It attempts to highlight the communication problems caused by verbal probability expressions and to offer possible solutions that are compatible with the forecasters overall perspective on their jobs Experts in the organization were first asked to give a numerical translation to 30 different verbal probability expressions most of which were taken from the organization's own published political forecasts. In a second part of the experiment the experts were given 15 paragraphs selected from the organization's political publications each of which contained at least one verbal expression of probability. Subjects were again asked to give a numerical translation to each verbal probability expression The results indicate that (a) there is a high variability in the interpretation of verbal probability expressions and (b) the variability is even higher in context. Possible reasons for the context effect are discussed and practical implications are suggested.

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Authors: Beyth‐Marom, R.
Corresponding author: Beyth‐Marom, Ruth
Venue: Journal of Forecasting
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 1982-07
Volume: 1
Issue: 3
Pages: 257-269
ISSN: 0277-6693 (ISSN-L)
1099-131X
DOI: 10.1002/for.3980010305
OpenAlex: W2004776030
Cited by: 527
References: 9
Citations by year: 2026: 7 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 63 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 11
FWCI: 6.32
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 8894 d)
Locations: Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
Funders: Office of Naval Research
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Categorization, perception, and language
Keywords: verbal probability expressions, probability communication, political forecasting, expert opinion, context effects

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“How Probable is Probable? A Numerical Translation of Verbal Probability Expressions.”

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