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Cited by 209Atmospheric chemistry and aerosolsAtmospheric Ozone and ClimateAtmospheric aerosols and clouds

Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: A multi‐model study

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Doherty, R. M., Wild, O., Shindell, D. T., Zeng, G., MacKenzie, I. A., Collins, W. J., Fiore, A. M., Stevenson, D. S. +5 more·2013·Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
DOI 10.1002/jgrd.50266
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Abstract

The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O 3 source‐receptor (S‐R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate‐chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O 3 increases that occur within parts of high NO x emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O 3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O 3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes—(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission—largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual‐mean surface O 3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual‐mean surface O 3 response through changes in climate‐sensitive O 3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO‐like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual‐mean surface O 3 change to 20% regional O 3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present‐day climate. The surface O 3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present‐day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual‐mean surface O 3.

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  • Prior studies have identified a 'climate penalty' on air quality, in which rising temperatures and shifts in meteorology under climate change can increase surface ozone and fine particulate concentrations, resulting in increases in air pollution-related mortality.

    “Prior studies have identified a 'climate penalty' on air quality, in which rising temperatures and shifts in meteorology under climate change can increase surface ozone and fine particulate concentrations, resulting in increases in air pollution-related mortality (Fiore et al., 2015; Doherty et al., 2013; Fu and Tian, 2019; Silva et al., 2017).”

    From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Doherty et al., 2013

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  • Reductions in temperature and humidity can suppress photochemical ozone formation in NOx-rich environments.

    “This behavior is consistent with previous work demonstrating that reductions in temperature and humidity can suppress photochemical ozone formation in NO x -rich environments (Archibald et al., 2020; Rasmussen et al., 2013; Doherty et al., 2013; Zanis et al., 2022).”

    From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Doherty et al., 2013

    Section 3 (§34) says ozone increases with temperature in polluted regions, supporting the temperature part of the claim. It does not establish that reduced humidity suppresses photochemical ozone formation in NOx-rich regions: Section 2.3 (§25) says humidity-related increases in OH can either enhance or suppress formation, while Section 5 (§48) attributes lower surface ozone under increased humidity chiefly to greater ozone destruction. The humidity part therefore conflates ozone concentration with photochemical formation. (LLM, conf=0.84)

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Research works printed but not linked: 48

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Authors
Doherty, R. M., Wild, O., Shindell, D. T., Zeng, G., MacKenzie, I. A., Collins, W. J., Fiore, A. M., Stevenson, D. S., Dentener, F. J., Schultz, M. G., Hess, P., Derwent, R. G., & Keating, T. J.
Affiliations
  • University of Edinburgh (GB)
  • Lancaster University (GB)
  • Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
  • National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NZ)
  • Met Office (GB)
  • Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
  • European Commission (BE)
  • Forschungszentrum Jülich (DE)
  • Cornell University (US)
  • rdscientific Newbury Berkshire UK
  • Environmental Protection Agency (US)
Corresponding author
Doherty, R. M.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2013-05-07
Volume
118
Issue
9
Pages
3744-3763
ISSN
  • 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
  • 2169-897X
  • 2169-8996
DOI
10.1002/jgrd.50266
OpenAlex
W1491889620
Cited by
209
References
85
Citations by year
2026: 13 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 25 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 1
FWCI
11.73
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations
  • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
  • Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • NASA STI Repository (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (submittedVersion)
  • JuSER (Forschungszentrum Jülich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Columbia Academic Commons (Columbia University)
Funders
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
  • European Commission
  • Met Office
  • Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/K001329/1)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords
climate change impacts, surface ozone, source-receptor relationships, SRES A2 scenario, water vapor, isoprene emissions, ozone transport

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