Assessing the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: Evidence from major crop yields

Abstract

This study empirically examines the effect of climate change on the yields of primary food as well as non‐food crops in India. The present study uses annual time‐series data of seven major crops such as rice, wheat, pulses, rapeseeds and mustard, cotton, sugarcane, and groundnut for 58 years (1961–20 17) to assess the influence climatic variables namely rainfall, maximum, and minimum temperatures on crop yields. The empirical findings of the study indicate that a significant effect on major crop yields from rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, but the level of impact varies across the crops studied. A rise in rainfall has an adverse effect on food crops except for pulses, however it has a positive relationship with non‐food crops throughout the study period. Further, the average maximum temperature has a positive influence on food and non‐food crops excluding rice. The average minimum temperature has an adverse impact on non‐food crops, but it has a positive association with food crops. The adverse effects of climatic factors on crop yields may be likely to pose severe implications for food and nutritional security. Conclusively, this study recommends taking adaptation activities to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.