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Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high‐resolution seasonal forecast system
Open accessAbstract
This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D‐Var assimilation system for ocean and sea‐ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year‐to‐year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.
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Cites
The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set.
Large, W. G., & Yeager, S. G. (2009) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3 · Cited by 1,636
The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system
Donlon, C. J., Martin, M., Stark, J., Roberts-Jones, J., Fiedler, E., & Wimmer, W. (2012) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2010.10.017 · Cited by 1,394
Cited by
The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., & Brunet, G. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14956 · Cited by 2,729
A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science
Scaife, A. A., & Smith, D. (2018) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4 · Cited by 411
Self-citationInitialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Meehl, G. A., Richter, J. H., Teng, H., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Donat, M. G., England, M. H., Fyfe, J. C., Han, W., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x · Cited by 231
Self-citationPrediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation: A Review
Kim, H., Vitart, F., & Waliser, D. E. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0210.1 · Cited by 181
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Scaife, A. A., Baldwin, M. P., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., Haynes, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Lim, E.-P., et al. (2022) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022 · Cited by 85
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Metadata
- Authors
- MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Peterson, K. A., Maidens, A., Fereday, D., Scaife, A. A., Gordon, M., Vellinga, M., Williams, A., Comer, R. E., Camp, J., Xavier, P., & Madec, G.
- Venue
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2014-06-27
- Volume
- 141
- Issue
- 689
- Pages
- 1072-1084
- ISSN
- 0035-9009 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-870X
- OpenAlex
- W2118002644
- Cited by
- 727
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 34.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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