Cited by 9

The DOI matches its Crossref record.

Deterministic Versus Probabilistic Volcano Monitoring: Not “or” But “and”

Rouwet, D., Constantinescu, R., Sandri, L.·2017·Advances in Volcanology

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/11157_2017_8

Cites

Statistics

Figures

Fig. 1 From dichotomic monitoring setups (deterministic vs. probabilistic forecast, ' or ' setups) to an ' and ' strategy. The picture shows VUELCO target volcano Popocat é petl,
Fig. 1 From dichotomic monitoring setups (deterministic vs. probabilistic forecast, ' or ' setups) to an ' and ' strategy. The picture shows VUELCO target volcano Popocat é petl,CC-BY · From the PDF

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 37

  1. Aspinall WP (2006) Structured elicitation of expert judgement for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader HM, Coles SG, Connor CB, Connor LJ (eds). Statistics in volcanology. IAVCEI Publications. ISBN: 978-1-86239-208-3. pp 15–30 · DOI
  2. Aspinall WP (2010) A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463(21):294–295 · DOI
  3. Aspinall WP, Woo G, Voight B, Baxter PJ (2003) Evidence-based volcanology: application to vol canic crises. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 128:273–285 · DOI
  4. Bartolini S, Cappello A, Martí J, Del Negro C (2013) QVAST: a new quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:3031–3042. doi: 10.5194/nhess-13-3031-2013 · DOI
  5. Becerril L, Bartolini S, Sobradelo R, Marti J, Morales JM, Galiendo I (2014) Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:1853–1870. doi: 10.5194/nhess-14-1853-2014 · DOI
  6. Bretton RJ, Gottsmann J, Aspinall WP, Christie R (2015) Implications of legal scrutiny processes (including the L’Aquila trial and other recent court cases) for future volcanic risk governance. J Appl Volcanol 4:18. doi: 10.1186/s13617-015-0034-x · DOI
  7. Christie R, Cooke O, Gottsmann J (2015) Fearing the knock on the door: critical security studies insights into limited cooperation with disaster management regimes. J Appl Volcanol 4:19. doi: 10.1186/s13617-13015-10037-13617 · DOI
  8. Constantinescu R, Robertson R, Lindsay JM, Tonini R, Sandri L, Rouwet D, Patrick Smith P, Stewart R (2016) Application of the probabilistic model BET_UNREST during a volcanic unrest simulation exercise in Dominica, Lesser Antilles. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 17:4438–4456. doi: 10.1002/2016GC006485 · DOI
  9. Cooke RM (1991) Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780195064650 · DOI
  10. Dohaney J, Brogt E, Kennedy B, Wilson TM, Lindsay JM (2015) Training in crisis communication and volcanic eruption forecasting: design and evaluation of an authentic role-play simulation. J Appl Volcanol 4:12. doi: 10.1186/s13617-015-0030-1 · DOI
  11. Donovan A, Oppenheimer C, Bravo M (2011) Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes. Bull Volcanol. doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0547-z · DOI
  12. Gregg CE, Houghton BF, Johnston DM, Paton D, Swanson DA (2004) The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai’i. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 130:179–196 · DOI
  13. Haynes K, Barclay J, Pidgeon N (2008) The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis. Bull Volcanol 70:605–621. doi: 10.1007/s00445-007-0156-z · DOI
  14. Hicks A, Few R (2015) Trajectories of social vulnerability during the Soufrière Hills volcanic crisis. J Appl Volcanol 4:10. doi: 10.1186/s13617-015-0029-7 · DOI
  15. Lindsay J, Marzocchi W, Jolly G, Constantinescu R, Selva J, Sandri L (2010) Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’. Bull Volcanol 72:185–204. doi: 10.1007/s00445-009-0311-9 · DOI
  16. Marzocchi W, Woo G (2007) Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an evacuation. Geophys Res Lett 34:L22310. doi: 10.21029/22007GL031922 · DOI
  17. Marzocchi W, Bebbington M (2012) Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales. Bull Volcanol. doi: 10.1007/s00445-012-0633-x · DOI
  18. Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Gasparini P, Newhall C, Boschi E (2004) Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius. J Geophys Res 109:B11201. doi: 10.1029/2004JB003155 · DOI
  19. Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Selva J (2008) BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term erup tion forecasting. Bull Volcanol 70:623–632. doi: 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y · DOI
  20. Moran SC, Newhall C, Roman DC (2011) Failed magmatic eruptions: late-stage cessation of mag ma ascent. Bull Volcanol 73:115–122. doi: 10.1007/s00445-010-0444-x · DOI
  21. Newhall C, Hoblitt RP (2002) Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull Volcanol 64:3–20. doi: 10.1007/s004450100173 · DOI · Paper page
  22. Newhall C, Pallister J (2015) Using multi data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees. In: Schroder JF, Papale P (eds) Volcanic hazards, risks, and disasters. Hazards and disasters series. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 203–232
  23. Phillipson G, Sobradelo R, Gottsmann J (2013) Global volcanic unrest in the 21st century: an ana lysis of the first decade. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 264:183–196 · DOI
  24. Rouwet D, Iorio M, Polgovsky D (2013) A science & arts sensitization program in Chapultenango, 25 years after the 1982 El Chichón eruptions (Chiapas, Mexico). J Appl Volcanol 2:6. doi: 10.1186/2191-5040-2-6 · DOI
  25. Rouwet D, Sandri L, Marzocchi W, Gottsmann J, Selva J, Tonini R, Papale P (2014) Recognizing and tracking hazards related to non-magmatic unrest: a review. J Appl Volcanol 3:17. doi: 10.1186/s13617-014-0017-3 · DOI
  26. Sandri L, Guidoboni E, Marzocchi W, Selva J (2009) Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesusvius, Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption. Bull Volcanol 71:729–745. doi: 10.1007/s00445-008-0261-7 · DOI
  27. Sandri L, Jolly G, Lindsay J, Howe T, Marzocchi W (2012) Combining long-term and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. Bull Volcanol 74:705–723. doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0556-y · DOI
  28. Sandri L, Thouret J-C, Constantinescu R, Biass S, Tonini R (2014) Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru). Bull Volcanol 76:771. doi: 10.1007/s00445-013-0771-9 · DOI
  29. Sandri L, Tonini R, Rouwet D, Constantinescu R, Mendoza-Rosas AT, Andrade D, Bernard B (2017) The need to quantify hazard related to non-magmatic unrest: from BET_EF to BET_UNREST. In: Gottsmann J, Neuberg, J, Scheu B (eds) Volcanic unrest: from science to society—IAVCEI advances in volcanology. Springer · DOI
  30. Selva J, Costa A, Marzocchi W, Sandri L (2010) BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy). Bull Volcanol 72:717–733. doi: 10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7 · DOI
  31. Selva J, Marzocchi W, Papale P, Sandri L (2012) Operational eruption forecasting at high-risk vol canoes: the case of Campi Flegrei, Naples. J Appl Volcanol 1:5. http://www.appliedvolc.com/ content/1/1/5 · DOI
  32. Selva J, Orsi G, Di Vito MA, Marzocchi W, Sandri L (2011) Probability hazard map for future vent opening at Campi Felgrei caldera. Bull Volcanol, Italy. doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2 · DOI
  33. Sobradelo R, Bartolini S, Marti J (2014) HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference. Bull Volcanol 76:770. doi: 10.1007/s00445-013-0770-x · DOI
  34. Sobradelo R, Marti J (2015) Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 290:1–11. doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2014.11.011 · DOI
  35. Sparks RSJ (2003) Forecasting volcanic eruptions. Earth Planet Sci Lett 210:1–15. doi: 10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00124-9 · DOI
  36. Sparks RSJ, Aspinall WP (2004) Volcanic activity: frontiers and challenges in forecasting, pre diction and risk assessment. The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geo physics. Geophysical Monograph 150, IUGG Volume 19. doi: 10.1029/150GM28 · DOI
  37. Tonini R, Sandri L, Rouwet D, Caudron C, Marzocchi W, Suparjan P (2016) A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 17:2539–2555. doi: 10.1002/2016GC006327 · DOI

Cited by

Metadata

Authors
Rouwet, D., Constantinescu, R., & Sandri, L.
Venue
Advances in Volcanology
Published
2017
Pages
35-46
ISSN
  • 2364-3277
  • 2364-3285
Cited by
9
References
0

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review