Inductive Confidence Machines for Regression

The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory

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An Introduction to Kolmogorov Complexity and Its Applications

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An Introduction to Kolmogorov Complexity and Its Applications

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Learning by TransductionPreprint

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Transduction with Confidence and Credibility

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Conformal Prediction Strategies for the Cherry Blossom Day Problem

Shrishti, F., Singha, N., Pu, S., & Cohen, A. (2026) · IEEE SoutheastCon · doi:10.1109/southeastcon63549.2026.11476689

Predicting Conformance Deviations and Their Positions in Future Event Sequences

Mustroph, H., Kunkler, M., & Rinderle‐Ma, S. (2026) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-28117-3_11

Conformal outlier detection for multivariate functional data

Kim, H., & Park, J. (2026) · Computational Statistics · doi:10.1007/s00180-026-01763-1

Uncertainty Estimation in Predicting Suspended Sediment Load Using Probabilistic Machine Learning and Conformal Prediction

Pal, M., Selwal, D., & Bisht, P. (2026) · Journal of Hydrologic Engineering · doi:10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-6825

Calibrated Uncertainty Quantification for Patient-Level AML Drug Sensitivity Prediction Using Split Conformal PredictionPreprint

Shokrzadeh, A. J., & Shokrzadeh, P. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.06.07.730728

Conformal Prediction and the Many-Worlds of Fairness

Brodén, J., Simson, J., & Kern, C. A. (2026) · ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT) · doi:10.1145/3805689.3812391

Hybrid Time Series Diffusion Model and Conformal Prediction for Incomplete Time Series

Shirakami, R., Hirose, S., & Takeuchi, K. (2026) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-981-92-1947-6_31

Hierarchical probabilistic conformal prediction for distributed energy resources adoption

Zhou, W., & Zhu, S. (2026) · The Annals of Applied Statistics · doi:10.1214/26-aoas2199

Stabilized adaptive robust conformal inference for small-sample regression under contamination and heavy-tailed errors

Alrefaee, S. D., & Alkailany, M. A. (2026) · Информатика Экономика Управление - Informatics Economics Management · doi:10.47813/2782-5280-2026-5-2-2050-2061

Ensemble Conformal Predictor (EnCP): A New Conformal Predictor with Robustness Guarantees Against Data Poisoning Attacks

Yang, Y., Li, Q., Feng, R., Shan, L., & Wang, B. (2026) · IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy (S&P) · doi:10.1109/sp63933.2026.00043

Coordinate Singularities Break Conformal Coverage for Gaze and Head Pose

Jamalifard, M., Lei, Y., Azizinezhad, P., & Andreu-Pérez, J. (2026) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-37252-9_17

The Role of Algorithmic Stability in Distribution-free Inference

Barber, R. F. (2026) · Volume 7: Invited Lectures: Sections 15–20 · doi:10.1137/25m1806788

Conformal Prediction for Crowdfunding Risk Assessment: A Distribution-Free Approach to Uncertainty Quantification

Jakhanov, S., & Мухитулы, Т. Ж. (2026) · IEEE International Conference on Smart Information Systems and Technologies (SIST) · doi:10.1109/sist61674.2026.11596168

Probabilistic pedotransfer functions for soil bulk density with calibrated uncertainty: a comparison of quantile regression and conformal prediction across 735 Brazilian catchments

Sahu, M. (2025) · International Journal of Agriculture and Animal Production · doi:10.55529/ijaap.52.81.92

CRISP: Conformal Resilient Intrusion Detection with Selective Prediction

Moccardi, A., Amato, A., Ghosh, R. C., & Cirillo, E. (2026) · International Conference on Machine Learning and Intelligent Systems Engineering (MLISE) · doi:10.1109/mlise70044.2026.11607513

CALIBER: A Reliability-aware Information-analytical System for Composite material Strength Prediction with Cross-dataset Validation

Sarsenbay, M., Serik, Z., Shayea, I., & Bakytzhan, A. (2026) · International journal of intelligent engineering and systems · doi:10.22266/ijies2026.0831.50

Conformal Neural Operators with SWAN for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Uncertainty Quantification

蔡, 铠. (2026) · Statistics and Applications · doi:10.12677/sa.2026.157167

Insurance Cost Prediction with Stacked Ensembles, Conformal Intervals, SHAP Explainability, and Fairness Auditing

Ataby, A. A., Moutassem, F., & Al‐Nuaimy, W. (2026) · Engineering Technology & Applied Science Research · doi:10.48084/etasr.19923 · Cited by 1

Receiver-Native GNSS Telemetry Sensing for Jamming-Impact Monitoring With Claim-Eligible Reliability

Liu, P., Zhang, H., Tan, S., Xue, P., Wang, Z., & An, Y. (2026) · IEEE Sensors Journal · doi:10.1109/jsen.2026.3720701

A conformal prediction-based probabilistic weighting method for GNSS NLOS mitigation in urban canyons

Xu, Z., Meng, L., Tang, L., Zhu, H., Deng, Z., Xu, A., & Yang, N. (2026) · Measurement Science and Technology · doi:10.1088/1361-6501/ae9c60

Uncertainty-aware machine learning with conformal prediction for gamma-ray attenuation performance in TeO2-Na2O-BaO-TiO2 glasses

Baskin, M. U., Alzahrani, J. S., & Al-Buriahi, M. S. (2026) · Applied Radiation and Isotopes · doi:10.1016/j.apradiso.2026.112914

IUCA: A Model-Agnostic In Situ Uncertainty Calibration Framework for High-Dimensional State Estimation in AIoT Robotic Systems

Wu, Y., Zhang, J., Wu, S., & Mao, S. (2026) · IEEE Journal of Selected Areas in Sensors · doi:10.1109/jsas.2026.3731931

Uncertainty Estimation in Predicting River Discharge Using Probabilistic Machine Learning and Conformal Prediction

Abdi, E., Sattari, M. T., Pal, M., Milewski, A. M., & Apaydın, H. (2026) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s26185800

Robust Wind Power Interval Forecasting via Adaptive Graph Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shifts

Bian, Y., Bao, J., Cao, S., & Luo, R. (2026) · IEEE Sensor Array and Multichannel Signal Processing Workshop (SAM) · doi:10.1109/sam68950.2026.11687984

Bounded Density-Rank Reweighting for Split Conformal Prediction

Cao, X., Xu, K., Xing, H., Li, Y., Zhu, X., Lu, J., Ma, S., & You, Y. (2026) · International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things and Cloud Computing Technology (AIoTC) · doi:10.1109/aiotc71250.2026.11688914

Hardware-benchmarked uncertainty-aware virtual NOx sensor for onboard emission monitoring of off-highway diesel machinery

Cho, S., & Lee, D. (2026) · Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part D Journal of Automobile Engineering · doi:10.1177/09544070261490676

An Uncertainty-Aware Decision-Support System for Composite-Property Prediction with Physically Admissible Conformal Intervals

Sarsenbay, M., Serik, Z., Баенова, Г. М., Alkhanova, G., Niyazova, R., & Bakytzhan, A. (2026) · Information · doi:10.3390/info17100946

Conformal 3D Lesion Segmentation with Balanced Risk Control

Tan, B., Wang, Z., Duan, J., Xu, K., Shen, H. T., Shen, F., & Shi, X. (2026) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-38085-2_11

Aggregated Inductive Conformal Prediction for Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Near-Infrared Spectroscopy: Application to Botanical AdulterationPreprint

崔荟楠, Qiao, Y., & Sun, C. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7528488

Medical Image Segmentation via Morphological Conformal Prediction and Fractional Iterations

Mukama, B. C., Messoudi, S., Rousseau, S., & Destercke, S. (2026) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-39518-4_36

A novel hybrid Elk-Eel and grouper optimizer coupled with machine learning for integrated irrigation water quality index prediction and Pareto-optimal monitoring cost reduction

Abd-Elmaboud, M. E., Youssef, Y. M., Abdellatief, M., Elkollaly, M., Sherif, M. M., El‐Shafie, A., & Saqr, A. M. (2026) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104014

Conformal Prediction for Statistically Controlled Perception Risk in Semantic Segmentation for GNSS-Integrated Navigation Systems

Gopalakrishnan, S., Ordonez, L., & Mohanty, A. (2026) · Proceedings of the Satellite Division's International Technical Meeting (Online)/Proceedings of the Satellite Division's International Technical Meeting (CD-ROM) · doi:10.33012/2026.20690

Assessing Uncertainty in Performance Modeling: Conformal Prediction vs. Bayesian Regression

Jahns, S., Dorn, J., Weber, M., Apel, S., & Siegmund, N. (2026) · IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering (ASE) · doi:10.1145/3832783.3837425

Prediction set size as a diagnostic for data corruption: a conformal perspective on label noise and distribution shift

Alur, A., & Das, B. (2026) · International Journal of Data Science and Analytics · doi:10.1007/s41060-026-01331-2

Cross-Item Pooled Calibration of Safety Stocks: Impossibility, Finite-Sample Coverage, and the Price of Per-Item Validity

Zhang, J., & Sun, Z. (2026) · Mathematics · doi:10.3390/math14203701

Probabilistic Modelling of Base Editing Efficiency and Bystander Outcome CompositionPreprint

Özden, F., & Mináry, P. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.10.09.757916

Similarity-calibrated conformal prediction: data-free coverage guarantees for remaining-useful-life intervals under operating-regime transfer

Busico, B. (2026) · Reliability Engineering & System Safety · doi:10.1016/j.ress.2026.113634

Anticipating the Next Recorded Bacterial Hosts of Plasmid-Borne Antimicrobial Resistance Genes: A Temporal Graph Analysis of Plasmid and Surveillance Data

Aljohani, W. A. (2026) · Genes · doi:10.3390/genes17101291

AgroConform: Coverage-Guaranteed Crop Recommendation with Sensor-Noise-Aware Calibration, Distribution-Shift Monitoring and Cost-Aware Agronomic Recourse

Chowdhury, P. (2026) · International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning · doi:10.51483/ijaiml.2937

Conformal Prediction for Distribution-Free Uncertainty in Machine Learning Models

Mini, T., V (2026) · Eduschool International Journal of Data Science and Machine learning (EIJDSML) · doi:10.63090/eijdsml/3139.7344.0011

Uncertainty-Calibrated Explainable AI for Cybersecurity Alert Prioritization: Improving Detection Reliability and Human Decision-Making

Zenia, M. M. (2024) · American Journal of Scholarly Research and Innovation · doi:10.63125/an0pcq39 · Cited by 2

Calibrated but not safe: Conformal prediction intervals for turbofan remaining useful life near end of life and under operating shift

Domingues, N. A. S., & Ather, D. (2026) · Journal of Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning and Neural Network · doi:10.55529/jaimlnn.62.106.119

Beyond point predictions: Uncertainty-aware timber compressive strength estimation using machine learning and conformal prediction

Abbara, A. A., Rameezdeen, R., Zhuge, Y., Ma, X., O’Hehir, J., & Liang, Y. (2026) · Journal of Building Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.jobe.2026.117649

Conformal Prediction for Uncertainty-Aware SAR-Based Terrain-Aided Navigation

Bertrand, S., Vacar, C., & Bombrun, L. (2026) · International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION) · doi:10.23919/fusion67272.2026.11726608

Machine-learning ultrasonic detection of fatigue cracks: a physics-based simulation study

Hu, S., Chen, S., & WANG, C. (2026) · Frontiers in Materials · doi:10.3389/fmats.2026.1961699

Valid but Uninformative: AI Process Alarms Beyond the Commissioned Operating Range

Saydirasulovic, N. S., & Cho, Y. I. (2026) · Processes · doi:10.3390/pr14213483

Conformal Prediction for River Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) Prediction and Risk Quantification

Pal, M., Abdi, E., & Haghighi, A. T. (2026) · Khazar Journal of Water and Environment · doi:10.68277/kjwe.2026.11

Cavity-Calibrated Prediction Sets

Cheng, Z., Dai, W., & Sun, J. (2026) · ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM) · doi:10.1145/3799682.3840611

Conformal prediction for network intrusion triage and analysis of unseen attack families

Arepalli, S. V., Irrink, U., Morampudi, A., & Surapani, R. K. (2026) · Discover Informatics · doi:10.1007/s44564-026-00033-y

Conformal Prediction Sets for Imbalanced Tabular Classification: A Study of Score Functions and Calibration Schemes

Chinnam, Y., Swapna, N., Tripathi, S., Yesubabu, M., Gogineni, S., & Suryanarayana, G. (2026) · doi:10.1109/icact70625.2026.11748683

Qualified Predictions for Large Data Sets

Papadopoulos, H. (2009) · The Knowledge Engineering Review · doi:10.1017/s0269888909990221 · Cited by 2

Ridge Regression Confidence Machine

Nouretdinov, I., Melluish, T., & Vovk, V. (2001) · Cited by 72

Transductive confidence machines

Rogers, J. (2011) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Computational Statistics · doi:10.1002/wics.154 · Cited by 2

On-line confidence machines are well-calibrated

Vovk, V. (2003) · Annual Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science · doi:10.1109/sfcs.2002.1181895 · Cited by 49

Transductive Confidence Machine

Nouretdinov, I., & Vovk, V. (2003)