Risk of multiple sclerosis following clinically isolated syndrome: a 4-year prospective study
Abstract
The aim of the study was to estimate the rate of conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to multiple sclerosis (MS) and to investigate variables predicting conversion in a cohort of patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of MS. Patients with a first symptom suggestive of MS in the preceding 6 months and exclusion of other diseases were enrolled in an observational prospective study from December 2004 through June 2007. Conversion from CIS to MS according to both McDonald and Clinically Defined Multiple Sclerosis (CDMS) criteria was prospectively recorded until March 2010. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the best predictive factors of conversion from CIS to MS. Among 168 patients included in the analysis, 122 converted to MS according to McDonald criteria whereas 81 converted to MS according to CDMS criteria. The 2-year probability of conversion was 57% for McDonald Criteria and 36% for CDMS criteria. Variables at enrolment significantly associated with conversion according to McDonald criteria were age and positivity for Barkhof criteria, and according to Poser's CDMS criteria, age, positivity for Barkhof criteria and no disease modifying therapy. In this large prospective cohort study the conversion rate from CIS to MS in patients presenting with recent symptoms suggestive of MS was within the range of previous observational studies and lower than that reported in the placebo arm of randomized trials. We confirm the prognost…
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Additional studies concerning the applicability of the 2010 McDonald Criteria in Asian, Middle Eastern, and Latin American populations have been published since 2010, though tended to be small.
“Additional studies concerning the applicability of the 2010 McDonald Criteria in Asian, 22-24 Middle Eastern, 25,26 and Latin American 27 populations have been published since 2010, though tended to be small.”
From Diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: 2017 revisions of the McDonald criteria (2018) · cites this paper as [23]
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Diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: 2017 revisions of the McDonald criteria
Thompson, A. J., Banwell, B. L., Barkhof, F., Carroll, W. M., Coetzee, T., Comi, G., Correale, J., Fazekas, F., Filippi, M., Freedman, M. S., et al. (2018) · The Lancet Neurology · doi:10.1016/s1474-4422(17)30470-2 · Cited by 8,167 · see citing works
Cramer, S. P., Modvig, S., Simonsen, H. J., Frederiksen, J. L., & Larsson, H. B. W. (2015) · Brain · doi:10.1093/brain/awv203 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
- Authors
- D’Alessandro, R., Vignatelli, L., Lugaresi, A., Baldin, E., Granella, F., Tola, M. R., Malagù, S., Motti, L., Neri, W., Galeotti, M., Santangelo, M., Fiorani, L., Montanari, E., Scandellari, C., Benedetti, M. D., & Leone, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Bologna (IT)
- University of Chieti-Pescara (IT)
- Columbia University (US)
- University of Parma (IT)
- University of Ferrara (IT)
- Ospedale “M. Bufalini” di Cesena (IT)
- Santa Maria Nuova Hospital (IT)
- Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale Della Romagna (IT)
- Ospedale "Santa Maria delle Croci" di Ravenna (IT)
- Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Modena (IT)
- Istituto delle Scienze Neurologiche di Bologna (IT)
- Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Integrata Verona (IT)
- Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Maggiore della Carita (IT)
- Corresponding author
- D’Alessandro, Roberto
- Venue
- Journal of Neurology
- Published
- 2013-02-03
- Volume
- 260
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1583-1593
- ISSN
- 0012-1037 (ISSN-L)
- 0340-5354
- 1432-1459
- OpenAlex
- W2003503918
- Cited by
- 37
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 2.75
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Journal of Neurology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Biogen
- IC Design Education Center
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Multiple Sclerosis Research Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Polyomavirus and related diseases
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Keywords
- multiple sclerosis, clinically isolated syndrome, conversion to multiple sclerosis, risk factors, Barkhof criteria, magnetic resonance imaging, disease-modifying therapy, Poser criteria, McDonald criteria
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Demyelinating Diseases, Female, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Middle Aged, Multiple Sclerosis, Neurologic Examination, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Cohort Studies, Proportional Hazards Models, Disease Progression
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