Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography
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The total fertility rate (TFR) has been decreasing dramatically for decades in many countries.
“Within this context, it is now recognized that the total fertility rate (TFR), defined as the number of children born per woman living to the end of childbearing years (15–49 years), has been decreasing dramatically for decades in many countries.”
From Declining global fertility rates and the implications for family planning and family building: an IFFS consensus document based on a narrative review of the literature (2024) · cites this paper as Dao et al., 2021
The Forecasting section (page unavailable) discusses falling fertility rates in its future demographic scenarios, particularly in high-fertility countries. It does not establish that TFR has decreased dramatically for decades in many countries, or provide the cited sentence’s definition of TFR. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBy 2100, 93% of all countries will have a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
“By 2050 and 2100, respectively, 77% of predominantly high-income countries and 93% of all countries will have a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.”
From Declining global fertility rates and the implications for family planning and family building: an IFFS consensus document based on a narrative review of the literature (2024) · cites this paper as Dao et al., 2021
The ‘Projection scenarios’ passage in Section 4 discusses future fertility trends but does not give the share of countries projected to fall below replacement fertility. Searches for ‘93%’, ‘77%’, and ‘replacement level 2.1’ found no passage supporting the claimed 2100 figure; page numbers were unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBy 2050, 77% of predominantly high-income countries will have a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
“By 2050 and 2100, respectively, 77% of predominantly high-income countries and 93% of all countries will have a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.”
From Declining global fertility rates and the implications for family planning and family building: an IFFS consensus document based on a narrative review of the literature (2024) · cites this paper as Dao et al., 2021
The Forecasting section discusses fertility trends under two demographic scenarios, but gives no country-level TFR count or replacement-level threshold. Searches for “77%,” “2.1,” and fertility below replacement found no passage supporting the projection that 77% of predominantly high-income countries will be below 2.1 by 2050. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredNot including the effects of migration, many countries are predicted to have a population decline of more than 50% from 2017 to 2100.
“Not including the effects of migration, many countries are predicted to have a population decline of more than 50% from 2017 to 2100 (Vollset et al., 2020; Dao et al., 2021).”
From Declining global fertility rates and the implications for family planning and family building: an IFFS consensus document based on a narrative review of the literature (2024) · cites this paper as Dao et al., 2021
Section 4 (Forecasting; page unavailable) says the paper uses population projections through 2100 to forecast migration, but it does not report that many countries would lose more than 50% of their populations without migration. Searches for the 2017–2100 period, the 50% threshold, and no-migration population declines found no passage establishing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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References 72 · Cited by 76
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- [16]16. Bolt, J., & Van Zanden, J. (2014). The maddison project: Collaborative research on historical national accounts. Economic History Review, 67(3), 627-651.
- [25]25. Clark, X., Hatton, T., & Williamson, J. (2007). Explaining us immigration, 1971-1998. Review of Eco- nomics and Statistics, 89(2), 359-373.
- Authors
- Dao, T. H., Docquier, F., Maurel, M., & Schaus, P.
- Affiliations
- Bielefeld University (DE)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- UCLouvain (BE)
- Corresponding author
- Dao, Thu Hien
- Venue
- Review of World Economics
- Published
- 2021-01-13
- Volume
- 157
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 417-449
- ISSN
- 0043-2636 (ISSN-L)
- 1610-2878
- 1610-2886
- PMC
- PMC7806256
- OpenAlex
- W3119716551
- Cited by
- 76
- References
- 72
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 6 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 11.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Review of World Economics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Digital Access to Libraries (Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), l'Université de Namur (UNamur) and the Université Saint-Louis (USL-B)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration, Refugees, and Integration
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- international migration, migration projections, demographic change, socio-demographic change, world economy model, backcasting, nowcasting, immigration restrictions, development policy, migration trends, 21st century migration
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