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The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis
Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1 m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3–5 m SLR. In this paper, we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP), with the inundation zones projected for 1–5 m SLR. Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries.
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Cited by
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Watts, N., Adger, W. N., Agnolucci, P., Blackstock, J., Byass, P., Cai, W., Chaytor, S., Colbourn, T., Collins, M., Cooper, A., et al. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60854-6 · Cited by 2,055
Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: a social science review
Thomas, K., Hardy, R. D., Lazrus, H., Mendez, M., Orlove, B., Rivera‐Collazo, I., Roberts, J. T., Rockman, M., Warner, B. P., & Winthrop, R. (2019) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.565 · Cited by 881
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century
Nicholls, R. J., Marinova, N., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Vellinga, P., de Gusmão, D., Hinkel, J., & Tol, R. S. J. (2011) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0291 · Cited by 555
Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S., Aich, V., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Fader, M., Hoff, H., Jobbins, G., Marcus, R., et al. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2 · Cited by 367
Share green growth: regional evaluation of green output performance in China
Song, M., Zhu, S., Wang, J., & Zhao, J. (2020) · International Journal of Production Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.05.012 · Cited by 156
Metadata
- Authors
- Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., & Yan, J.
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2008-10-10
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 3-4
- Pages
- 379-388
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- OpenAlex
- W3121626742
- Cited by
- 725
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 79.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., & Yan, J. (2009). The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5
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