The DOI matches its Crossref record, with a small difference in title or year; 46 of the 46 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 1 of the 19 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Pedestrian evacuation time calculation against tsunami hazard for southern coasts of Bodrum peninsula
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Abstract Historical records with recent events reveal that tsunamis are threatening the western coast of Turkey due to intensely active seismicity of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The most recent tsunami events in the region (30 October 2020 Izmir-Samos and 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos) restated that the cities located near the Eastern Mediterranean and connected seas should consider tsunami events in their disaster mitigation plans. Bodrum is one of the most critical coastal districts, vulnerable to marine hazards with popular hotels, numerous coastal facilities, long and famous beaches, cultural, historical and touristic places. Tsunami evacuation planning is required for Bodrum district to mitigate the damage caused by destructive tsunami waves inundating on land. In this study, the geospatial distribution of pedestrian evacuation time is calculated based on selected credible worst-case scenarios. A widely used anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) model is applied via the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool (PEAT) to calculate the required time for a pedestrian to evacuate the region under tsunami threat based on the selected scenarios. The model includes landscape properties that affect the walking pace of pedestrians during an evacuation, such as elevation, slope, land cover, and land use types (beach, road, bushes, water bodies, any barriers). The resultant pedestrian evacuation time maps show that the maximum time needed for a pedestrian is 8, 6, 5, 4, 3 minutes for highly populated coastal settlements of Bodrum, which are Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet Bays, respectively.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This study calculates pedestrian tsunami evacuation times for the southern coasts of the Bodrum Peninsula using an anisotropic least-cost-distance model in PEAT under credible worst-case tsunami scenarios. It produces evacuation-time maps showing longest required times of 8, 6, 5, 4, and 3 minutes for Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet Bays, respectively.
Key findings
- The longest evacuation times are 8, 6, 5, 4, and 3 minutes for Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet Bays, respectively.
- Specific locations with long evacuation times include Bodrum Marina’s breakwater tip (8 minutes), Camel Beach in Yahsi Bay (6 minutes), Aspat Beach (5 minutes), Karaincir Municipal Beach (5 minutes), and a valley entrance in Bitez Bay (5 minutes); without the breakwater, travel time from Aganlar Shipyard & Marina is 4 minutes.
- Validation walks on four routes found measured times lower than PEAT-calculated times for three routes, but for the Bitez-2 route field experts walked 40 m more than PEAT calculated because the hazard zone continued next to the route.
Methods
- Anisotropic least-cost-distance modeling was applied via the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool (PEAT) using DEM/slope, land-cover/land-use speed conservation values, roads, water bodies, and hazard/safe zones; a slow walking speed of 1.1 m/s was used.
- Hazard zones came from credible worst-case scenarios: Scenario A (1956-Amorgos seismic) and Scenario B (combined Gokova seismic and North Datca landslide), with Bitez Bay using merged A and B scenarios; tsunami modeling was performed with NAMI DANCE.
- Evacuation-time maps were produced for Central Bodrum, Gumbet Bay, Yahsi Bay, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, and Bitez Bay, then validated on four selected routes by walking at nearly constant speed not exceeding 1.1 m/s and comparing measured distance/time with PEAT results.
Limitations
- The paper states that simulations use present mean sea level; debris is ignored; all locations are assumed inundated simultaneously; tsunami warning system reaction time, individual awareness, crowd panic/chaos, earthquake damage to buildings/roads, road congestion, population variability, vertical evacuation, and multi-evacuation are not included; buildings are assumed reinforced concrete; roads are assumed to have identical SCVs; and data resolution/up-to-date accuracy and user-dependent Google Earth land-cover classification affect results.
- The text makes evident that the static LCD approach cannot capture dynamic individual behavior or congestion, and the validation is limited to four routes, with the Bitez-2 case showing possible hazard-zone boundary misinterpretation or resolution issues.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
1 of 19 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“According to the model sensitivity analysis conducted by Wood and Schmidtlein (2012), PEAT tended to underestimate the required evacuation time with coarser-resolution elevation data.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4.1. Validation of resultant evacuation time surfaces
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Wood and Schmidtlein (2012) source
The Data sensitivity section (§4.3) reports that model runs using coarser 10-m elevation data underestimated pedestrian travel times compared with runs using 1-m data. The Influence of modeling assumptions section (§5.1) likewise says the underestimates were consistent regardless of the land-cover dataset. (LLM, conf=0.95)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“famous beaches located at the Bodrum like Gumbet Beach (3 minutes), Camel Beach (6 minutes) located in Yahsi Bay, Aspat Beach (5 minutes), Karaincir Municipal Beach (5 minutes) have the longest evacuation time since they are the places having maximum inundation distances (Fig. 5b-d).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.2. Resultant evacuation walk time surfaces
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“famous beaches located at the Bodrum like Gumbet Beach (3 minutes), Camel Beach (6 minutes) located in Yahsi Bay, Aspat Beach (5 minutes), Karaincir Municipal Beach (5 minutes) have the longest evacuation time since they are the places having maximum inundation distances (Fig. 5b-d).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.2. Resultant evacuation walk time surfaces
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“famous beaches located at the Bodrum like Gumbet Beach (3 minutes), Camel Beach (6 minutes) located in Yahsi Bay, Aspat Beach (5 minutes), Karaincir Municipal Beach (5 minutes) have the longest evacuation time since they are the places having maximum inundation distances (Fig. 5b-d).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.2. Resultant evacuation walk time surfaces
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, in the absence of breakwater, the travel time is calculated as 4 minutes from the Aganlar Shipyard & Marina.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.2. Resultant evacuation walk time surfaces
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Scenario B creates the maximum inundation area for Central Bodrum, Gumbet Bay, Yahsi Bay, and Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays (Fig. 4a,b,c and d).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.1.3. Hazard zone/Safe zone
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition to beaches, the tsunami waves easily inundate through valleys also; hence the longest time required for a pedestrian is calculated as 5 minutes around the valley entrance located in Bitez Bay (Fig. 5e).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.2. Resultant evacuation walk time surfaces
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As shown in Fig. 8, there is a valley where the hazard zone continues 40 m more right next to the validation route.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4.1. Validation of resultant evacuation time surfaces
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“According to validation results (Table 2), the measured time to reach the safe zone from selected validation routes is lower than it is calculated by PEAT.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4.1. Validation of resultant evacuation time surfaces
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, those beaches face greater danger because tsunami waves inundate faster through valleys.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.2. Resultant evacuation walk time surfaces
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Rests on an assumption: The study areas are dominated by rivers that mostly pour into the sea through beaches.
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
- It may state two separate claims as one. 7
- Probably not a substantial claim. 15
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result of our study, the longest time required for evacuees to get out of hazard zone with 1.1 m/s walking speed from the tip of Bodrum Marina's breakwater is calculated as 8 minutes (Fig. 5a).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.2. Resultant evacuation walk time surfaces
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, in the case of the Bitez-2 validation route (Fig. 8), eld experts thought that the selected route was within the hazard zone and walked 40 m more than it is calculated by PEAT for that route even there is no panic situation during validation.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4.1. Validation of resultant evacuation time surfaces
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“According to evacuation walk time maps (Fig. 5), the longest evacuation times are 8, 6, 5, 4, and 3 minutes for Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet bays, respectively.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 5. Conclusion
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The nal resultant maps reveal the spatial distribution of time required for a person to reach a safe zone in the fast and easiest way.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 5. Conclusion
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, PEAT does not take into account possible crowd behavior, such as panic and chaos, which may have an effect on the time required for evacuation.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 6. Declarations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jones et al. (2014) source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not checked yet
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool (PEAT) used in this study considers the di culties of pedestrian movement within a hazard zone (cost-distance) based on the static landscape properties such as slope and landcover types.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 6. Declarations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jones et al. (2014) source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not checked yet
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The time calculated by PEAT in the nal resultant evacuation time maps at the locations where the validation route starts (Fig. 6789) is compared with the time passed to reach the safe zone during the walk (Table 2).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4.1. Validation of resultant evacuation time surfaces
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Land cover and elevation-derived slope data are converted to speed conservation values (SCVs), representing maximum travel speeds expected on areas with given conditions(Wood and Schmidtlein 2012).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 6. Declarations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Wood and Schmidtlein 2012 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“PEAT was developed byJones et al. (2014) with the USGS support as a decision support system for studies on self-initiated pedestrian evacuation against the sudden onset hazards like tsunamis, lahars, ash oods.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 6. Declarations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jones et al. (2014) source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not checked yet
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, in addition to the collapse of buildings, the road network may be destroyed by an earthquake due to liquefaction.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4. Discussion
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the southern coasts of the Bodrum Peninsula with a maximum runup of 1.9 m (Dogan et al. 2019).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 2. Study Area
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Dogan et al. 2019 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not checked yet
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The Mediterranean Sea hosts active faults and zones that can create many earthquakes and tsunamis (Lorito et al. 2008, Tiryakioğlu et al. 2018).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 2. Study Area
What the sources say
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the damage is mostly due to the debris materials carried by tsunami waves, such as boats, cars, parts of trees, and concrete particles detached from the ground or houses.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4. Discussion
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The anisotropic LCD model uses cost-distance geoprocessing that also includes the in uence of land cover types(Laghi et al. 2006, Post et al. 2009).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 6. Declarations
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Laghi et al. 2006
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked yetcites Post et al. 2009 source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, DEM resolution plays a critical role in the resultant maps and validation is required to make sure accuracy of resultant evacuation time maps (Fig. 5).”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4.1. Validation of resultant evacuation time surfaces
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The validation is performed by a nearly constant speed not exceeding 1.1 m/s.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4.1. Validation of resultant evacuation time surfaces
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing the accuracy and decreasing the misinterpretation and confusion of evacuees depends on using detailed and high-resolution data.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4.1. Validation of resultant evacuation time surfaces
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The raster ow depth results of numerical modelling is vectorized and validations of safe zones are done by removing excessive sliver polygons and safe zone islands within the inundated hazard zones.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 3.1.3. Hazard zone/Safe zone
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“It calculates required evacuation time by considering an anisotropic path distance model where the di culty of the direction of travel against a slope is incorporated.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 6. Declarations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jones et al. (2014) source
Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not checked yet
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the case of a strong earthquake, reinforced concrete buildings may collapse along with unstructured ones towards the important roads, which leads to block the evacuation suddenly and cause congestion.”
§ Pedestrian Evacuation Time Calculation against Tsunami Hazard for Southern Coasts of Bodrum Peninsula > 4. Discussion
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
The study areas are dominated by rivers that mostly pour into the sea through beaches.
“The study areas are dominated by rivers that mostly pour into the sea through beaches.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The inundation is composed of only water, not debris material, during numerical simulations.
“The inundation is assumed as composed of only water, not the debris material, during the numerical simulations.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In LCD models, all locations are inundated simultaneously.
“In an actual tsunami event, the arrival of the rst wave to the land differs, but it is assumed for LCD models that all locations are inundated simultaneously.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
All buildings are reinforced concrete and not damaged by tsunami waves.
“Additionally, all the buildings are assumed as reinforced concrete and not damaged by the tsunami waves.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In PEAT, roads are the safest places to evacuate for an individual.
“In PEAT, roads are assumed as the safest places to evacuate for an individual.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
All roads have identical SCVs providing the easiest way for a pedestrian.
“Although it does not re ect the reality, it is assumed that all the roads have identical SCVs providing the easiest way for a pedestrian.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In LCD models, all individuals in a community have the same and constant speed of evacuation.
“however, in LCD models, it is assumed that all individuals in a community have the same and constant speed of evacuation (Wood and Schmidtlein 2012).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Evacuation is performed only horizontally; vertical evacuation to buildings is ignored.
“Furthermore, evacuation is assumed to performed only horizontally; vertical evacuation to the buildings is ignored.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Multi-evacuation is not allowed in the model; only self-initiated pedestrian evacuation is permitted.
“Likewise, multi-evacuation is not allowed in the model, only self-initiated pedestrian evacuation is permitted as it is the most useful way for sudden hazards like tsunami, debris ow, etc.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The four selected validation routes are representative of all evacuation routes in the study area.
“the maps were validated via eldwork on four selected different routes by performing on foot evacuation with a constant desired speed.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Crowd behavior such as panic and chaos does not materially affect the evacuation times calculated by PEAT for the study area.
“However, PEAT does not take into account possible crowd behavior, such as panic and chaos, which may have an effect on the time required for evacuation.”
The paper relies on this without support.
During a real tsunami evacuation, pedestrians will not experience panic that increases travel time beyond the validated times.
“However, in the case of the Bitez-2 validation route (Fig. 8), eld experts thought that the selected route was within the hazard zone and walked 40 m more than it is calculated by PEAT for that route even there is no panic situation during validation.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Bitez maximum evacuation time is reported as both 4 and 5 minutes
MinorThe conclusion gives Bitez a longest evacuation time of 4 minutes, but the results section reports a 5-minute evacuation time at a valley entrance in Bitez Bay.
“the longest evacuation times are 8, 6, 5, 4, and 3 minutes for Central Bodrum, Yahsi, Akyarlar-Karaincir-Aspat Bays, Bitez, and Gumbet bays, respectively.”
“the longest time required for a pedestrian is calculated as 5 minutes around the valley entrance located in Bitez Bay (Fig. 5e).”
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Connecting Soft and Hard: An Integrating Role of Systems Dynamics in Tsunami Modeling and Simulation
Zanker, M., Alhasnawi, B. N., Babič, F., Bureš, V., Čech, P., Husáková, M., Mikulecký, P., Nacházel, T., Ponce, D., Iqbal, S., et al. (2024) · Sci · doi:10.3390/sci6030039 · Cited by 3
Application of Least-Cost Distance Model and Agent-Based Model in Evacuation Time Estimate
Liu, C., Staes, B. M., & Wang, H. (2024) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105237 · Cited by 3
Enhancing tsunami evacuation strategies in Puerto Rico using open-source least-cost path analysis
Cordero, E., Vélez, R. R., Huerfano, V., & Sherman, C. (2025) · Journal of Disaster Science and Management · doi:10.1007/s44367-025-00018-y
Tsunami insani hasar görebilirlik ve risk değerlendirmesi: küresel olarak uygulanabilir bir yöntem
Tüfekçi Enginar, D. (2024) · OpenMETU (Middle East Technical University)
Navigating the urban labyrinth: challenges in coastal tsunami evacuation
Ranaweera, N., Amaratunga, D., & Haigh, R. (2026) · Frontiers in Sustainability · doi:10.3389/frsus.2026.1814044
Metadata
- Authors
- Celikbas, B., Tufekci-Enginar, D., Dogan, G. G., Kolat, C., Santini, M., Annunziato, A., Necmioglu, O., Yalciner, A. C., & Suzen, M. L.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Natural Hazards
- Published
- 2023-08-15
- Volume
- 119
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 243-260
- ISSN
- 0921-030X (ISSN-L)
- 1573-0840
- OpenAlex
- W4385837735
- Semantic Scholar
- c3c3b4160efd8fe1524655912d27f24cfced5862
- Cited by
- 5
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 3
- FWCI
- 1.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Natural Hazards (publishedVersion)
- Research Square (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- joint research centre (936314-IPR-2018)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Civil and Structural Engineering › Earthquake and Tsunami Effects
- Social Sciences › Geography, Planning and Development › Earthquake and Disaster Impact Studies
- Keywords
- tsunami evacuation, Bodrum Peninsula, tsunami hazard, coastal vulnerability, walking speed, land cover, disaster mitigation planning
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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