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Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

Twilley, Robert R., Bentley, Samuel J., Chen, Qin, Edmonds, Douglas A., Hagen, Scott C., Lam, Nina S.-N., Willson, Clinton S., Xu, Kehui, Braud, DeWitt, Hampton Peele, R., McCall, Annabeth·2016·Sustainability Science
DOI 10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4PMC PMC6106107
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Fig. 1 Conceptual diagram of the interactions of source-sink processes of major river basins and delta development, including co-evolution of land formation (L), ecosystems (E), human settlement (G), and flooding risks (V). (r o) is the contribution of organic production to land elevation, and (fr) is fraction of sediment delivery to coastal zone retained in formation of land
Fig. 1 Conceptual diagram of the interactions of source-sink processes of major river basins and delta development, including co-evolution of land formation (L), ecosystems (E), human settlement (G), and flooding risks (V). (r o) is the contribution of organic production to land elevation, and (fr) is fraction of sediment delivery to coastal zone retained in formation of landCC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 2 a Upper panel Map of the Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) based on satellite image overlaid with the historical delta lobe occurrences over the last 7000 years (from Day et al. 2007). b Lower panel Stages of the delta cycle, including the phases of river occupation, land formation, and ecosystem development, along with river abandonment and wetland loss (from Penland et al. 1988; modified from Gosselink et al. 1998)
Fig. 2 a Upper panel Map of the Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) based on satellite image overlaid with the historical delta lobe occurrences over the last 7000 years (from Day et al. 2007). b Lower panel Stages of the delta cycle, including the phases of river occupation, land formation, and ecosystem development, along with river abandonment and wetland loss (from Penland et al. 1988; modified from Gosselink et al. 1998)CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 3 Ecosystem development along the spatial and temporal gradients of delta cycle associated with the magnitude of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic basins, including specific attributes of coastal basins (subaerial development, length of land-to-water edge, salinity, estuarine secondary productivity), and distribution of ecosystem types in a coastal basin with the magnitude of river input (modified from Gagliano and Van Beek 1975; Gosselink et al. 1998). Numbers on the subaerial development line correspond to delta lobes in Fig. 2a
Fig. 3 Ecosystem development along the spatial and temporal gradients of delta cycle associated with the magnitude of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic basins, including specific attributes of coastal basins (subaerial development, length of land-to-water edge, salinity, estuarine secondary productivity), and distribution of ecosystem types in a coastal basin with the magnitude of river input (modified from Gagliano and Van Beek 1975; Gosselink et al. 1998). Numbers on the subaerial development line correspond to delta lobes in Fig. 2aCC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 4 a Map of the coastal deltaic basins of Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) based on hydrology overlay on a satellite image of the 2011 flood, showing patterns of sediment plumes at mouth of Mississippi River (east) and Atchafalaya River (west). b Map of Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) with historical distributary systems of the Mississippi River as described by Fisk (1944). The original map has been modified to show the location of coastal deltaic basins of MRDP
Fig. 4 a Map of the coastal deltaic basins of Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) based on hydrology overlay on a satellite image of the 2011 flood, showing patterns of sediment plumes at mouth of Mississippi River (east) and Atchafalaya River (west). b Map of Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) with historical distributary systems of the Mississippi River as described by Fisk (1944). The original map has been modified to show the location of coastal deltaic basins of MRDPCC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 5 a Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) showing progressive position of the 50 % land:water isopleth along the coast (modified from Gagliano et al. 1970). b Map of Mississippi River Delta Plain showing isopleths of land:water ratio of 50 % in 1930 (from Gagliano et al. 1970) compared to results of the land:water model of 50 % land:water occurrence of an image in 1932 used in this study. c Map of Mississippi River Delta Plain showing isopleths of land:water ratio of 50 % predicted for 2000 (from Gagliano et al. 1970) compared to results of the land:water model of actual image in 1999, showing 50 % land:water isopleth based on model in this study. All isopleths in a–c have been overlaid upon a satellite image from 2011 showing distribution of sediment during major flood event
Fig. 5 a Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) showing progressive position of the 50 % land:water isopleth along the coast (modified from Gagliano et al. 1970). b Map of Mississippi River Delta Plain showing isopleths of land:water ratio of 50 % in 1930 (from Gagliano et al. 1970) compared to results of the land:water model of 50 % land:water occurrence of an image in 1932 used in this study. c Map of Mississippi River Delta Plain showing isopleths of land:water ratio of 50 % predicted for 2000 (from Gagliano et al. 1970) compared to results of the land:water model of actual image in 1999, showing 50 % land:water isopleth based on model in this study. All isopleths in a–c have been overlaid upon a satellite image from 2011 showing distribution of sediment during major flood eventCC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 6 Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) showing progressive position of the 50 % land:water isopleth along the coast across coastal deltaic basins using an image from 1932 compared to image in 2010. Isopleths have been overlaid upon a satellite image from 2011 showing distribution of sediment during major flood event
Fig. 6 Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP) showing progressive position of the 50 % land:water isopleth along the coast across coastal deltaic basins using an image from 1932 compared to image in 2010. Isopleths have been overlaid upon a satellite image from 2011 showing distribution of sediment during major flood eventCC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 7 Vegetation maps and wetland distribution for Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins from 1949 to 2013 showing shifts in forested wetlands, freshwater marsh, brackish marsh, intermediate marsh, and salt marsh over time in each basin. Description of data sets used: (1) 1949/1956 map (O’Neil 1949, Habitat zones 1956, USGS 1978); (2) 1978 map (Chabreck and Linscombe 1978, USGS 1978); (3) 2001 map (Linscombe and Chabreck 2001, USGS 2003); and (4) 2013 map (Sasser et al. 2014, USGS 2011)
Fig. 7 Vegetation maps and wetland distribution for Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins from 1949 to 2013 showing shifts in forested wetlands, freshwater marsh, brackish marsh, intermediate marsh, and salt marsh over time in each basin. Description of data sets used: (1) 1949/1956 map (O’Neil 1949, Habitat zones 1956, USGS 1978); (2) 1978 map (Chabreck and Linscombe 1978, USGS 1978); (3) 2001 map (Linscombe and Chabreck 2001, USGS 2003); and (4) 2013 map (Sasser et al. 2014, USGS 2011)CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 8 Percent change in the area of four vegetation classes from 1949 to 2013 in Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins (the intermediate and brackish marshes have been combined into a single type) using information from maps used in Fig. 7: (1) 1949/1956 map (O’Neil 1949, Habitat zones 1956, USGS 1978); (2) 1978 map (Chabreck and Linscombe 1978, USGS 1978); (3) 2001 map (Linscombe and Chabreck 2001, USGS 2003); and (4) 2013 map (Sasser et al. 2014, USGS 2011)
Fig. 8 Percent change in the area of four vegetation classes from 1949 to 2013 in Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins (the intermediate and brackish marshes have been combined into a single type) using information from maps used in Fig. 7: (1) 1949/1956 map (O’Neil 1949, Habitat zones 1956, USGS 1978); (2) 1978 map (Chabreck and Linscombe 1978, USGS 1978); (3) 2001 map (Linscombe and Chabreck 2001, USGS 2003); and (4) 2013 map (Sasser et al. 2014, USGS 2011)CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 9 a Annual landward migration rates for the 50 % land:water (L:W) ratio in Terrebonne Basin based on isopleths in 1932 and difference measured for isopleths calculated from images in 1973, 1999, and 2010. b Annual expansion of area <50 % L:W (including open water) in Terrebonne Basin based on isopleths in 1932 and difference measured for isopleths calculated from images in 1973, 1999, and 2010
Fig. 9 a Annual landward migration rates for the 50 % land:water (L:W) ratio in Terrebonne Basin based on isopleths in 1932 and difference measured for isopleths calculated from images in 1973, 1999, and 2010. b Annual expansion of area <50 % L:W (including open water) in Terrebonne Basin based on isopleths in 1932 and difference measured for isopleths calculated from images in 1973, 1999, and 2010CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 10 Changes in land area and population by coastal drainage basin (Terrebonne, Barataria, Atchafalaya, Pontchartrain, Birdsfoot, and Breton Sound Basins) and coastal parishes contained within those basins (Terrebonne, Lafourche, St. Mary, Orleans, Plaquemines, and St. Bernard, respectively). Land data are from Couvillion et al. 2011, and population data are from Louisiana State Census Data Center, 2011
Fig. 10 Changes in land area and population by coastal drainage basin (Terrebonne, Barataria, Atchafalaya, Pontchartrain, Birdsfoot, and Breton Sound Basins) and coastal parishes contained within those basins (Terrebonne, Lafourche, St. Mary, Orleans, Plaquemines, and St. Bernard, respectively). Land data are from Couvillion et al. 2011, and population data are from Louisiana State Census Data Center, 2011CC BY · PubMed Central

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Authors
Twilley, R. R., Bentley, S. J., Chen, Q., Edmonds, D. A., Hagen, S. C., Lam, N. S.-N., Willson, C. S., Xu, K., Braud, D., Hampton Peele, R., & McCall, A.
ORCID
Twilley, Robert R.
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Sustainability Science
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2016-05-26
Volume
11
Issue
4
Pages
711-731
ISSN
  • 1862-4065
  • 1862-4057
DOI
10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4
PMC
PMC6106107
Cited by
150
References
0
Language
en
Licence
Funders
Directorate for Geosciences (EAR-1427389, OCE-1135427)

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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