Cited by 1Sports Performance and TrainingSports Analytics and PerformanceVideo Analysis and Summarization

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 27 of the 27 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 11 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Automating assist identification in football (soccer): a machine learning approach using event and tracking data

Open access

Abstract

Assists—the number of last passes before a goal—have been a predominant metric to evaluate offensive players contribution in association football. This poses two major limitations: first, assist definitions differ across data collection vendors, and second, the focus on passes leading to goals creates a strong dependency on the player taking the shot. We introduce the term potential assists comprising all actions, that prepare a teammate’s shot regardless of conversion. Additionally, we use expert-knowledge to derive an objective definition for potential assists and show that it can be detected with a substantial inter-rater reliability (Fleiss’ $$\kappa =0.63$$ , $$n=5$$ ). Using this definition, we utilize video footage to label 500 assists manually and train multiple supervised machine learning models to classify potential assists based on 29 features derived from positional and event data. We apply our automated detection approach on 105 DFB-Pokal matches and demonstrate a scalable method to enhance automatic event detection and improve the comparability of assist statistics for application in player assessment and scouting.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper develops and evaluates a machine-learning framework to identify potential football assists from synchronized event and tracking data, using an expert-derived assist definition and hand-labeled DFB-Pokal shot scenarios. Ensemble models (Random Forest and XGBoost) performed best, with a best F1 score of 0.94, though the authors caution that human labeling agreement (Fleiss’ κ = 0.63) and limited annotated matches constrain interpretation.

Key findings

  • Across 105 DFB-Pokal matches from 2023/24 and 2024/25 (up to 31 October 2024; 2972 shots and 436 goals), the final dataset contained 422 shots: 344 with prior successful passes and 78 with unsuccessful prior passes. Expert labeling showed Fleiss’ κ = 0.37 on 50 initial scenes, κ = 0.66 on the remaining 450 clips, and total IRR = 0.63 across all scenarios.
  • Four models (LR, SVM, RF, XGB) were trained across six scenarios and 12 feature configurations, resulting in 288 models. Ensemble models (RF and XGB) achieved the highest F1 scores in five out of six scenarios, with a best F1 score of 0.94.
  • In Scenario 5, RF achieved F1 = 0.94, precision = 0.92, recall = 0.97, ROC-AUC = 0.94, and log loss = 0.29; XGB achieved F1 = 0.92, precision = 0.89, recall = 0.96, ROC-AUC = 0.97, and log loss = 0.26. In Scenario 6, RF achieved F1 = 0.94, precision = 0.91, recall = 0.98, ROC-AUC = 0.94, and log loss = 0.28; XGB achieved F1 = 0.92, precision = 0.88, recall = 0.96, ROC-AUC = 0.96, and log loss = 0.29.
  • SHAP analysis found the squared interval between pass and shot (`frame_difference^2`) had the greatest influence, with lower values increasing assist likelihood; proximity to the opponent’s goal (`assist_x_tracking_player_1` and its interaction with `shot_x_tracking_player_1`) positively affected assist probability, while `number_of_events` had a minor positive influence. Domain knowledge features improved Scenarios 3 and 4 but slightly decreased performance in Scenarios 1 and 2 by up to 0.03 points.

Methods

  • Design: A nine-step pipeline was followed: defining an assist, selecting 500 shot scenarios, expert labeling, data preprocessing, domain-specific feature engineering, dataset creation, feature selection, model training, and validation. The assist definition was synthesized from literature and vendor definitions in consultation with experts; five domain experts (average 9 years experience, all holding UEFA A-Level or B-Level licenses) labeled the scenarios.
  • Data: Synchronized event data from Sportec Solutions and tracking data from Tracab covered 105 DFB-Pokal matches, with 2972 shots and 436 goals. After excluding type 4 shots and edge cases, the final dataset comprised 422 shots.
  • Analysis: Four supervised models (LR, SVM, RF, XGB) were trained across six scenarios and 12 feature configurations (288 models). An 80/20 train/test split was used, with Yeo-Johnson transformation, standard scaling, SMOTE for class imbalance, feature selection (Mutual Information, Recursive Feature Elimination, and model selectors), and halving random search with cross-validation. Evaluation used F1, accuracy, precision, recall, ROC-AUC, and log loss; SHAP values and partial dependence plots were used for interpretation.

Limitations

  • Stated in the paper: The assist definition lacks concrete boundaries and requires a dedicated study; performance above 0.9 must be interpreted considering the IRR of 0.63; the small sample size raises overfitting and limited generalization concerns; Scenarios 3 and 4 were limited by smaller, biased samples; Scenarios 5 and 6 faced imbalance between successful and unsuccessful passes; missing or noisy data reduced training quality; frame-based time differences assumed defaults for miscellaneous events; the rule-based preselection struggles with complex events such as corner kicks; SMOTE may generate synthetic examples that do not fully reflect real-world football situations; and the model’s application to entirely new scenarios must be observed.
  • Evident from the text: The paper’s own results show that unsuccessful passes remained challenging for all models, and domain knowledge features slightly decreased performance in Scenarios 1 and 2 (by up to 0.03 points), indicating context-dependent feature utility.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/s12283-025-00533-4

Cites

27 of 27 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Figures

Fig. 1 Decision tree illustrating the rule-based preselection process to identify potential assist events preceding a shot based on event data characteristics, including pass and shot player, team, and event outcome
Fig. 1 Decision tree illustrating the rule-based preselection process to identify potential assist events preceding a shot based on event data characteristics, including pass and shot player, team, and event outcomeCC-BY · From the PDF
Image 2
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 3 Presentation of feature selection and subsequent input into model types, exemplary using Scenario 1 with raw features
Fig. 3 Presentation of feature selection and subsequent input into model types, exemplary using Scenario 1 with raw featuresCC-BY · From the PDF
Image 4
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 5 Partial Dependency Plots for the top 20 SHAP value features (excluding binary feature shot_player_equals_assist_receiver ) of the Random Forest model in Scenario 2
Fig. 5 Partial Dependency Plots for the top 20 SHAP value features (excluding binary feature shot_player_equals_assist_receiver ) of the Random Forest model in Scenario 2CC-BY · From the PDF

Verification

Claims the paper makes

29 Own result · 18 Own interpretation · 8 Own method · 7 No basis given · 2 Sources not found · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 No full text of the sources · 1 Not checked yet

  • It may state two separate claims as one. 37
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 16
44 of 44
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The expert consensus labels used as ground truth correctly represent whether an assist occurred.

    “Finally, Phase 5: Final Label Creation aggregated expert inputs into a single label by rounding the average.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The rule-based system correctly identifies the preceding potential assist event.

    “A rule-based system identified the preceding potential assist event, resulting in four assist types across various game situations, as shown in Fig. 1: (1) direct passes (pass event), (2) deflected but successful passes (pass + trajectory check), (3) interjacent teammate touches (miscellaneous), and (4) no valid assist (no assist).”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The tracking and event data are accurately synchronized.

    “The tracking and event data are synchronized providing passes, shots, referee actions, and miscellaneous occurrences covering all remaining events as described by the authors of [19,26,27] .”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The human-labeled assist labels are a valid ground truth for training and evaluating the models.

    “The presented findings demonstrate successful classification of potential assists using validated assist labels across different scenarios.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The expert-developed assist definition adequately captures assist situations for labeling.

    “A common, practical definition of an assist was developed by integrating existing definitions, highlighting the challenges of standardizing assist criteria across the football world.”
5 of 5

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

1 of 1

Citations

Cites

Show all 25 references

Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. Richly K, Moritz F, Schwarz C (2017) Utilizing artificial neural networks to detect compound events in spatio-temporal soccer data. In: Proceedings of the 2017 SIGKDD workshop MiLeTS, pp 13–17
  2. Gudmundsson J, Wolle T (2010) Towards automated football analysis: Algorithms and data structures. In: Proceedings of the 10th Australasian conference on mathematics and computers in sport. MathSport (ANZIAM), Darwin, Australia, https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:15369923
  3. Decroos T, Van Haaren J, Dzyuba V et al (2017) Starss: a spatio-temporal action rating system for soccer. Machine learning and data mining for sports analytics ECML/PKDD 2017 workshop. Springer, pp 11–20
  4. Neter J, Kutner MH, Nachtsheim CJ et al (1996) Applied linear statistical models, 4th edn. WCB McGraw-Hill, New York

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Metadata

Authors
Klemmer, M., Arnsmeyer, K., Bauer, P., & Bücker, M.
Affiliations
  • FH Münster University of Applied Sciences (DE)
  • Saarland University (DE)
Corresponding author
Klemmer, Maike
Venue
Sports Engineering
Published
2026-01-09
Volume
29
Issue
1
ISSN
  • 1369-7072 (ISSN-L)
  • 1460-2687
OpenAlex
W7119509037
Cited by
1
References
25
Citations by year
2026: 1
FWCI
6.45
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
Sports Engineering (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
FH Münster
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Sports Performance and Training
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition › Video Analysis and Summarization
Keywords
football, soccer, player performance evaluation, event detection, player tracking data, video annotation, inter-rater reliability, player scouting

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