Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries
Open accessAbstract
We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division’s current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility will eventually fall below replacement level. It models the decline in TFR as the sum of two logistic functions that depend on the current TFR level, and a random term. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to project future TFR based on both the country’s TFR history and the pattern of all countries. It is estimated from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated using out-of-sample projections for the period since 1980 and the period since 1995, and is found to be well calibrated.
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Previous UN Population Division forecasts have assumed that, in countries with low post-transition fertility below replacement, fertility rates will increase towards replacement levels.
“Previous UN Population Division forecasts have assumed that, in such circumstances, fertility rates will increase towards replacement levels”
From Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2024) · cites this paper as [13]
The Phase III methods section says the UN projected increases in low fertility, but only until the total fertility rate reached 1.85. The Results section contrasts that UN target with the paper’s own projection toward replacement level, approximately 2.1. Thus the claim captures the projected increase but not its endpoint. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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References 54 · Cited by 248
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Alkema L Uncertainty assessments of demographic estimates and projections (Doctoral dissertation) 2008 University of Washington, Seattle
- Guengant J-P May JF Impact of the proximate determinants on the future course of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa Population Bulletin of the United Nations 2002 46/47 71 96
- Lee RD Carter LR Modeling and forecasting US mortality Journal of the American Statistical Association 1992 87 659 671
- Moultrie TA Timaeus IM Stopping, spacing and postponing—Evidence of a uniquely African pattern of fertility decline 2009 9 Presented at the XXVI International Population Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Marrakesh Morocco Retrieved from http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=90376
- Authors
- Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., & Heilig, G. K.
- Affiliations
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- University of Washington (US)
- United Nations (US)
- University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
- Corresponding author
- Alkema, Leontine
- Venue
- Demography
- Publisher
- Duke University Press
- Published
- 2011-07-12
- Volume
- 48
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 815-839
- ISSN
- 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-7790
- PMC
- PMC3367999
- OpenAlex
- W2154895460
- Cited by
- 248
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 20 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 40.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Demography (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- National University of Singapore (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Child Health and Human Development
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (K01HD057246, HD057246, R01HD070936, R01HD054511, R24HD042828)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Keywords
- total fertility rate, fertility projections, Bayesian hierarchical model, fertility transition, replacement-level fertility, autoregressive models, out-of-sample forecast evaluation, United Nations population projections
- MeSH terms
- Bayes Theorem, Birth Rate, Cross-Cultural Comparison, Developing Countries, Forecasting, Humans, Markov Chains, Monte Carlo Method, Population Dynamics, Probability, United Nations, Developed Countries
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