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Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam
Open accessAbstract
With 70% of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is highly exposed to riverine and coastal flooding. This paper conducts a “stress-test” and examines the exposure of the population and poor people in particular to current and future flooding in Vietnam and specifically in Ho Chi Minh City. We develop new high-resolution flood hazard maps at 90 m horizontal resolution, and combine this with spatially-explicit socioeconomic data on poverty at the country and city level, two datasets often kept separate. The national-level analysis finds that a third of today’s population is already exposed to a flood, which occurs once every 25 years, assuming no protection. For the same return period flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climate change may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46% of the population (an increase of 13–27% above current exposure), depending on the severity of sea level rise. While poor districts are not found to be more exposed to floods at the national level, the city-level analysis of Ho Chi Minh City provides evidence that slum areas are more exposed than other urban areas. The results of this paper provide an estimate of the potential exposure under climate change, including for poor people, and can provide input on where to locate future investments in flood risk management.
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“A recent mapping-based study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, estimated that 83% of urban informal settlement areas were exposed to floods (for a 1000-year return period) compared to 68% of the city as a whole 65 , not considering the impacts of flood protections such as drainage systems that are unlikely to be equitably distributed between urban informal settlements and wealthier neighborhoods 63 .”
From Urban informal settlements as hotspots of antimicrobial resistance and the need to curb environmental transmission. (2020) · cites this paper as [65]
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“Flood events are expected to become more frequent and intense with climate change, and could continue to overwhelm existing drainage and sanitation infrastructure 65,71 .”
From Urban informal settlements as hotspots of antimicrobial resistance and the need to curb environmental transmission. (2020) · cites this paper as [65]
In the citing paper
“These settlements are more likely to be located in low-lying, flood-prone areas than higher income neighborhoods of the same cities 64-66 .”
From Urban informal settlements as hotspots of antimicrobial resistance and the need to curb environmental transmission. (2020) · cites this paper as [65]
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Nadimpalli, M. L., Marks, S. J., Montealegre, M. C., Gilman, R. H., Pajuelo, M. J., Saito, M., Tsukayama, P., Njenga, S. M., Kiiru, J., Swarthout, J., et al. (2020) · Nature microbiology · doi:10.1038/s41564-020-0722-0 · Cited by 223
Metadata
- Authors
- Bangalore, M., Smith, A., & Veldkamp, T.
- Affiliations
- World Bank (US)
- Fathom (United Kingdom) (GB)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Bangalore, Mook
- Venue
- Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
- Published
- 2018-10-26
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 79-99
- ISSN
- 2511-1280 (ISSN-L)
- 2511-1299
- OpenAlex
- W2490335638
- Cited by
- 149
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 5.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Economics of Disasters and Climate Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- London School of Economics and Political Science
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Keywords
- flood exposure, climate change impacts, poverty, flood hazard mapping, sea level rise, slums, urban flooding, flood risk management, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, coastal flooding, flood return periods
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