A comparative study of marriage and fertility changes in Japan, South Korea, and China
Open accessAbstract
This study investigates the characteristics of marriage and fertility transitions in Japan, South Korea, and China using historical demographic data, revealing a tightly coupled relationship between marriage and childbearing across all three societies. Fertility decline consistently coincides with transitions in marital patterns, with three distinct stages observed during their progression into ultra-low fertility. The first phase features a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by shifts in age specific marriage patterns. The second phase combines continued fertility decline with marital transition and a rising lifetime unmarried individuals. The third phase exhibits adeceleration in fertility reduction and stabilization of marriage patterns. Empirical date identify Japan as being in the third phase, South Korea in the second, and China in the first phase. Tempo effects emergeas a pivotal driver of low fertility levels in all three countries with the strong marriage fertility nexus exacerbating the demographic consequences of these effects. To effectively address the challenges of ultra-low fertility, the three societies must prioritize interventions targeting the rise in unmarried rates as a central driver.
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References 16 · Cited by 8
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Zhai, Z. W., Jin, G. Z., & Zhang, Y. Y. (2022). Reassessment of China's fertility level: An analysis of the 7th population census data. Population Research, 46(4), 3-13. (in Chinese)
- Authors
- Wang, Q., & Li, T.
- Affiliations
- Renmin University of China (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Wang, Qiang
- ORCID
- Venue
- China Population and Development Studies
- Published
- 2025-06
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 195-214
- ISSN
- 2096-448X (ISSN-L)
- 2523-8965
- OpenAlex
- W4411034579
- Cited by
- 8
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8
- FWCI
- 18.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- China Population and Development Studies (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Marriage and Family Dynamics
- Keywords
- transition to marriage, fertility decline, ultra-low fertility, tempo effects, demographic change, Japan, South Korea, China
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