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Vectorial capacity: Must we measure all its components?
Abstract
Following attack on an insect vector-perhaps with insecticide or by removing breeding sites-we need to know what reduction in disease can be expected. In general, reliable predictions of the epidemiological consequences of any entomological change are highly desirable. Such predictions require a measure of the capacity of an insect population to transmit disease. A popular approach is to try to quantify all the entomological components of transmission, in isolation from the parasitological components, and then calculate the maximum daily reproductive rate of the disease-known as the Vectorial Capacity. But to measure accurately all the entomological components is technically demanding. In this article, Chris Dye argues that epidemiological predictions could be made by including only the dominant entomological variables in an index-a streamlined Vertical Capacity-which can then be fine-tuned by closely matching entomological and parasitological observations.
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“in making an estimate of VC, errors can be propagated by taking the product of several noisy and potentially biased parameter estimates.82”
From Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control (2014) · cites this paper as [82]
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Barnard, D. R., Knue, G. J., Dickerson, C., Bernier, U. R., & Kline, D. L. (2010) · Bulletin of entomological research · doi:10.1017/s0007485310000453 · Cited by 16
“The effectiveness of any such system will depend on the estimation of critical population parameters in an unbiased manner (Morris, 1960; Bidlingmayer, 1985; Dye, 1986).”
BackgroundReceptivity to malaria: meaning and measurement
Yukich, J. O., Lindblade, K. A., & Kolaczinski, J. H. (2022) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-022-04155-0 · Cited by 15
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“According to [8], Garret-Jones designed and implemented Equation (1) following a series of parameters incorporated in a differential equation system that was proposed by Ross [9] and Macdonald [10], which is considered as the first model that described malaria’s dynamic propagation [3, 11].”
BackgroundDye, C. (1988) · Parasitology · doi:10.1017/s0031182000081622 · Cited by 14
Self-citationChristofferson, R. C., Turner, E. A., & Peña-García, V. H. (2023) · Pathogens · doi:10.3390/pathogens12111368 · Cited by 13
“In addition, vector competence and EIP are impactful parameters of the vectorial capacity equation, which is a measure of transmission efficiency and a component of the basic reproductive number (R 0 ) for vector-borne pathogens [13,15,42–47].”
BackgroundChristofferson, R. C., Wearing, H. J., Turner, E. A., Walsh, C. S., Salje, H., Kiem, C. T., & Cauchemez, S. (2022) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010818 · Cited by 14
Westby, K., & Juliano, S. (2015) · Journal of medical entomology · doi:10.1093/jme/tjv116 · Cited by 13
“All of these traits are thought to alter vectorial capacity, which is a mathematical expression of the rate of new infections arising from a single infected mosquito in a given place and time (Dye 1986).”
BackgroundEstimation of survival rates in haematophagous insects
Lord, C., & Baylis, M. (1999) · Medical and Veterinary Entomology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2915.1999.00170.x · Cited by 13
“The mean survival rate of a population of blood-feeding insects is an important component of vectorial capacity (Garrett-Jones, 1964; Milby & Reisen, 1989), and has been recognized as a major factor in the ability of a particular vector species to transmit disease since the pioneering work of Ross (1911) and Macdonald…”
Backgroundde Oca-Aguilar, A. C. M., Pavón-Méndez, M., López-Ávila, K., Sosa-Bibiano, E., Rebollar-Téllez, E., Palacio-Vargas, J. A., Fernández-Figueroa, E. A., & Loría-Cervera, E. N. (2023) · Acta Tropica · doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.107014 · Cited by 12
West, R., Mathias, D., Day, J. F., Boohene, C., Unnasch, T., & Burkett-Cadena, N. (2020) · Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.3389/fevo.2020.00270 · Cited by 12
“One assumption of vectorial capacity is that the pathogen is transmitted by only one species of vector to one type of host (Dye, 1986).”
BackgroundMalaria, Babesiosis, Theileriosis and Related Diseases
Burkot, T. R., & Graves, P. M. (2000) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-011-6472-6_7 · Cited by 5
Figurskey, A. C., Hollingsworth, B., Doyle, M. S., & Reiskind, M. H. (2022) · Pest Management Science · doi:10.1002/ps.6917 · Cited by 11
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Are nulliparous sandflies light-shy?
Gibb, P., Anderson, T., & Dye, C. (1988) · Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · doi:10.1016/0035-9203(88)90472-5 · Cited by 11
Self-citationBarker, C., Johnson, W., Eldridge, B., Park, B., Melton, F., & Reisen, W. (2010) · American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · doi:10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0324 · Cited by 10
Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control
Smith, D. L., Perkins, T. A., Reiner, R. C., Barker, C. M., Niu, T., Chaves, L. F., Ellis, A. M., George, D. B., Le Menach, A., Pulliam, J. R. C., et al. (2014) · Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · doi:10.1093/trstmh/tru026 · Cited by 9
Zimmerman, R. H., Galardo, A. K., Lounibos, L., Galardo, C., Bahar, A. K., & van Santen, E. (2022) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-022-04255-x · Cited by 9
A New Test of a Theory about Old Mosquitoes
Smith, D. L., Musiime, A. K., Kilama, M., Lindsay, S. W., & Kiware, S. S. (2020) · Trends in Parasitology · doi:10.1016/j.pt.2020.10.011 · Cited by 10
“A single estimate of transmission intensity would require 4–5 separate parameter estimates, and there were lingering questions about the accuracy of each parameter and of estimates made by taking their product [30].”
BackgroundEllis, B. R., Wesson, D., & Sang, R. (2007) · Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases · doi:10.1089/vbz.2006.0561 · Cited by 9
“These types of measures are important because they provide a quantifiable and realistic indicator of human exposure, are requisite for predictive modeling, and of immediate utility in targeting surveillance (Dye 1986).”
Plasticity of blood feeding behavior of Anopheles mosquitoes in Ethiopia: a systematic review
Ashine, T., Kochora, A., Shibru, H., Bekele, A., Assefa, M., Gidisa, B., Negash, N., Weetman, D., Ayele, T. A., Gadisa, E., et al. (2024) · Parasites & Vectors · doi:10.1186/s13071-024-06493-1 · Cited by 10
“Thus, in addition to supporting the sporogonic development of Plasmodium parasites, the host preference of Anopheles mosquitoes determines their vectorial capacity [3–5].”
BackgroundPiedrahita, S., Álvarez, N., Naranjo-Díaz, N., Bickersmith, S. A., Conn, J. E., & Correa, M. M. (2022) · Acta Tropica · doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2022.106567 · Cited by 13
Debalke, S., Habtewold, T., Duchateau, L., & Christophides, G. K. (2019) · Parasites & Vectors · doi:10.1186/s13071-019-3414-y · Cited by 9
Can Horton Hear the Whos? The Importance of Scale in Mosquito-Borne Disease
Lord, C. C., Alto, B. W., Anderson, S. L., Connelly, C. R., Day, J. F., Richards, S. L., Smartt, C. T., & Tabachnick, W. J. (2014) · Journal of Medical Entomology · doi:10.1603/me11168 · Cited by 8
“Models have shown that adult mosquito mortality affects mosquito-borne disease epidemiology (e.g., Ross 1911; Macdonald 1957; Garrett-Jones 1964; Dye 1986a,b, 1992; Lord and Day 2001b, Luz et al. 2003; Medlock et al. 2009, Bellan 2010), but this has largely been studied using population-level…”
BackgroundMalaria transmission potential in the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yangtze River, China.
Wang, D.-Q., Tang, L.-H., Gu, Z.-C., Zheng, X., & Jiang, W.-K. (2013) · Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES · doi:10.3967/0895-3988.2013.01.007 · Cited by 8
Modeling the human infectious reservoir for malaria control: does heterogeneity matter?
Hansen, E., & Buckee, C. O. (2013) · Trends in Parasitology · doi:10.1016/j.pt.2013.03.009 · Cited by 7
“Studies examining heterogeneity of mosquito biting rates, parasite virulence and spatial patterns of infection have shown that substantial variation exists, and this can have important impacts on model behavior [3-14].”
BackgroundHuman Malaria Transmission: Reconciling Field and Laboratory Data
Burkot, T. R., & Graves, P. M. (1994) · Advances in disease vector research · doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-2590-4_6 · Cited by 7
Walshe, R., Pongsoipetch, K., Mukem, S., Kamsri, T., Singkham, N., Sudathip, P., Kitchakarn, S., Maude, R. R., & Maude, R. J. (2024) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-024-05044-4 · Cited by 3
“Where a strong surveillance system is not in place, vectoral capacity approximated as biting rate [10, 11] and historical or approximated parasite rate [12, 13] has been used .”
BackgroundGutiérrez, E. H. J., Riehle, M., Walker, K., Ernst, K., & Davidowitz, G. (2022) · Parasites & Vectors · doi:10.1186/s13071-022-05605-z · Cited by 6
Kirstein, O., Culquichicón, C., Che-Mendoza, A., Navarrete-Carballo, J., Wang, J., Bibiano-Marín, W., González-Olvera, G., Ayora-Talavera, G., Earnest, J. T., Puerta-Guardo, H., et al. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-48620-5 · Cited by 5
Jude, J., Gunathilaka, N., Udayanaga, L., Fernando, D., Premarathne, P., Wickremasinghe, R., & Abeyewickreme, W. (2022) · Parasitology International · doi:10.1016/j.parint.2022.102715 · Cited by 6
Costanzo, K., Dahan, R. A., & Radwan, D. (2016) · International Journal of Tropical Insect Science · doi:10.1017/s1742758416000163 · Cited by 5
Is there a risk of malaria transmission in NSW?
Ewald, B. D., Webb, C., Durrheim, D., & Russell, R. (2008) · New South Wales Public Health Bulletin · doi:10.1071/nb07040 · Cited by 5
Forshey, B., Stoddard, S., & Halsey, E. (2013) · doi:10.2217/fvl.13.95 · Cited by 4
Debalke, S., Habtewold, T., Duchateau, L., & Christophides, G. (2018) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1101/361444 · Cited by 3
Westby, K. M., Muturi, E. J., & Juliano, S. A. (2015) · Journal of Medical Entomology · doi:10.1093/jme/tjv146 · Cited by 7
Marrelli, M. (2000) · doi:10.11606/t.42.2000.tde-30032001-141738 · Cited by 2
“A densidade da população e a proporção de picadas infectantes sobre o homem também são fatores importantes na determinação da capacidade vetorial de um mosquito numa determinada região (DYE 1986).”
BackgroundWhy Measure the Vectorial Capacity of Sandflies
Dye, C. (1989) · doi:10.1007/978-1-4613-1575-9_30 · Cited by 2
Self-citationComparative Study of Dengue Prevention Measures in Malaysian Construction Site
Halmi, N. A., & Rahman, H. A. (2020) · International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences · doi:10.6007/ijarbss/v10-i16/8295 · Cited by 1
“A female mosquito will eat a lot of blood (Dye, 1986), and each cycle of female mosquito eggs will increase its ability to spread the dengue virus.”
BackgroundArbovirus phenotype alters transmission potential
Christofferson, R. (2011) · doi:10.31390/gradschool_dissertations.3885 · Cited by 1
“In 1964, Garrett-Jones isolated the entomological parameters from MacDonald’s equation and introduced the term “vectorial capacity,” though it excludes the parameter of vector competence discussed below (Garrett-Jones and Grab 1964; Dye 1986; Dye 1992).”
BackgroundInfluentialThe extrinsic incubation period for Zika virus: a Bayesian time delay modelling studyPreprint
Hartner, A.-M., Wieler, L. H., & Irrgang, C. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.08.05.742962
“EIP influences the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) because mosquitoes must survive long enough for the virus to disseminate to the saliva before transmission can occur [7–9].”
Bolton, J. S., Kobylinski, K., Doum, D., Tatarsky, A., Macdonald, M., McIver, D., Lobo, N. F., & Bergmann-Leitner, E. S. (2026) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-026-05920-1
“However, inaccurate measurements of the components of the formula, especially age-grading, often make this approach impractical [1].”
Regaining the path to malaria elimination: Lessons from the pandemic
Macdonald, M. (2024) · MalariaWorld Journal · doi:10.5281/zenodo.10948595
“In vector control we can move away from prohibitive epidemiological endpoints to prove ‘Public Health Value’ similar to the WASH sector, by improved entomological endpoints and vectorial capacity [5], modelling, Human Centered Design [6] and soon, serological markers for vector exposure [7].”
BackgroundGutiérrez, E. J., Riehle, M., Walker, K., Ernst, K., & Davidowitz, G. (2020) · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-22098/v1
“These factors include the mosquito’s survival rates, biting frequency, likelihood of encountering a human, reproductive rate, susceptibility to infection, and the incubation period of the pathogen [8].”
BackgroundMitri, C., Thiéry, I., Lecoq, M.-T., Thouvenot, C., Touron, S., Landier, A., Bischoff, E., & Bourgouin, C. (2020) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2020.01.27.922070
Chaumeau, V. (2017) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/02c2f3b5z42c4z43fczac68z7df0d1a63da8
“en 1986 résume les limites de la CV : « In summary, methods based on untested assumption are used to estimate parameters with unknown error » (Dye, 1986).”
MethodYamany, A. S., Adham, F., & Mehlhorn, H. (2016) · Parasitology Research · doi:10.1007/s00436-016-5348-z
RetractedThe link between disparity and disease.
Medlin, J. (2004) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.112-a28
Environmental Impacts on life history in container breeding mosquitoes
Westby, K. M. (2015) · doi:10.30707/etd2015.westby.k
“This “condition-dependent competence” and the combined effects of 3 resource limitation on vector life history traits can influence vectorial capacity (Dye 1986, Moller-Jacobs et al. 2014).”
BackgroundInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Dye, C.
- Affiliations
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Dye, C.
- ORCID
- Dye, C.
- Venue
- Parasitology Today
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1986-08
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 203-209
- ISSN
- 0169-4758 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1987979366
- Cited by
- 178
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 5.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Parasitology Today (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- vectorial capacity, insect vectors, disease transmission, vector control, mosquito breeding sites, vector-borne diseases
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