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Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices
Open accessAbstract
This paper uses time series techniques to re-examine the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis that there has been a secular deterioration in primary commodity prices in terms of manufactured goods. Instead of using price indices, it considers 26 individual commodity prices over the period 1900–1983. This avoids possible aggregation and interpretation problems associated with the use of aggregate indices. The study finds that 16 of the 26 prices are trendless. Five have statistically significant negative trends; the remaining five have positive trends. It concludes that the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis should certainly not be considered a universal phenomenon or ‘stylized fact’.
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Citations
Cited by
The Political Economy of the Resource Curse
Ross, M. L. (1999) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887100008200 · Cited by 1,991
Resource intensity, institutions, and development
Bulte, E. H., Damania, R., & Deacon, R. T. (2005) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.04.004 · Cited by 788
The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey
Frankel, J. (2010) · doi:10.3386/w15836 · Cited by 655
Placing The 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom Into Perspective
Haniotis, T., & Baffes, J. (2010) · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-5371 · Cited by 277
Metadata
- Authors
- Cuddington, J. T.
- Venue
- Journal of Development Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1992-10
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 207-227
- ISSN
- 0304-3878 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1542170841
- Cited by
- 211
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 9.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Cuddington, J. T. (1992). Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices. Journal of Development Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(92)90037-a
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
