The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 25 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
What Predicts Long-Term Survival After Heart Transplantation? An Analysis of 9,400 Ten-Year Survivors
Abstract
Background This case-control study was conducted to identify factors predictive of 10-year survival after orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT).Methods Prospectively collected data from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry were reviewed to identify adult patients undergoing OHT between 1987 and 1999 (N=22,385) who had survived 10 years. Controls were those who had died within 10 years of OHT. Factors associated with 10-year survival were identified with multivariate logistic regression analysis. Lowess smoothing plots were used to identify linear breakpoints in continuous variables, and splines were incorporated when appropriate.Results There were 9,404 ten-year survivors (42%; mean follow-up, 14.0±3.0 years) and 10,373 controls (46%) with a mean survival of 3.7±3.3 years post-OHT. Predictors of 10-year survival in the optimal multivariate model were age younger than 55 (odds ratio [OR], 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10 to 1.38; p<0.001), white race (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.56; p<0.001), shorter ischemic time (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.18; p<0.001), younger donor age (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.02; p<0.001), annual center volume of 9 or more (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.47; p<0.001), mechanical ventilation (OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.78; p=0.001), and diabetes (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.78; p<0.001).Conclusions Age younger than 55 years, annual center volume of 9 or more, white race, shorter ischemic time, and younger donor age improved the likelihood of 10-year survival after OHT. Mechanical ventilation and diabetes reduced this likelihood. These data should serve as a useful guide to long-term prognostication in adult OHT.
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“T2DM was an independent risk factor for reduced 10-year survival in a large registry of 22 385 transplant patients.178”
From Type 2 diabetes mellitus and heart failure: A position statement from the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology (2018) · cites this paper as [178]
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Items 101–130 of 130
Woolley, B. E., Hong, Y., Nasim, U., Iyanna, N., Dorken‐Gallastegi, A., Machinski, S. N., Hickey, G., Keebler, M., Horn, E. T., & Kaczorowski, D. J. (2025) · The Journal of Heart and Lung Transplantation · doi:10.1016/j.healun.2025.08.015 · Cited by 2
Evidence-based surgery for chronic heart failure
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Examining Mortality and Rejection in Combined Heart–Lung Transplantations
Taghavi, S., Jayarajan, S. N., Ambur, V., Wheatley, G. H., Kaiser, L. R., Toyoda, Y., & Kadakia, S. (2017) · The Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeon · doi:10.1055/s-0036-1597989 · Cited by 2
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Mid-term Waitlist and Posttransplant Outcomes With Hepatitis C-positive Donor Hearts
Hong, Y., Couper, C. D., Iyanna, N., Hess, N. R., Ziegler, L. A., Abdullah, M., Mathier, M. A., Hickey, G., Keebler, M., Silvestry, S., et al. (2024) · Transplantation · doi:10.1097/tp.0000000000005193 · Cited by 1
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“This reduced 2-year survival among the DCD donor heart recipients with pretransplant diabetes mellitus persisted after adjusting for established risk factors for post-transplant mortality among heart transplant recipients (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.07–2.31, p = 0.021) (Table 4) [18].”
InfluentialBerg, A., Krishnan, A., Heng, E., Choi, A. Y., Zhou, A. L., Alnasir, D. I., Ruaengsri, C., Shudo, Y., Woo, Y.-P. J., & MacArthur, J. W. (2025) · Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery · doi:10.1016/j.jtcvs.2025.11.025 · Cited by 1
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“Minority recipients, and specifcally black recipients, have historically experienced higher mortality rates post-HT than white recipients [1, 4–10].”
The effect of donor ischemic time on mortality in heart transplanted patients
Yağdı, T. (2014) · Turkish Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery · doi:10.5606/tgkdc.dergisi.2014.9024 · Cited by 1
“[1,12,13] Kilic et al.[11] studied 9,404 patients who underwent an orthotopic heart transplantation from 1987 to 1999 and concluded that younger patient age (<55 years), a shorter donor ischemic time, and younger donor age were the most Table 3.”
BackgroundSynchronous Donor Heart and Lung Procurement Does Not Impair Outcomes After Heart Transplant.
Jenkins, F. S., Boettger, C., Immohr, M. B., Akhyari, P., Aubin, H., Tudorache, I., Sigetti, D., Oehler, D., Lichtenberg, A., & Boeken, U. (2023) · Experimental and Clinical Transplantation · doi:10.6002/ect.2023.0151 · Cited by 1
Acute Heart Transplant Graft Failure in Association with Hyperosmolar Hyperglycemia State
Sadat, K., Morsy, M., & Khalife, W. I. (2014) · Journal of Cardiac Surgery · doi:10.1111/jocs.12408
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“[10] found that 42% lived for 10 years or more, but for those who did not reach 10 years, mean survival was 3.”
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OBSOLETE: Cardiac Transplantation
Hasan, A. (2017) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-801238-3.99670-3
Morris, A. A. (2019) · The Journal of Heart and Lung Transplantation · doi:10.1016/j.healun.2019.06.020
(2013) · Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery · doi:10.1016/j.jtcvs.2013.06.050
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What Influences the Adoption of Innovations in Healthcare in Wales
Bell, H. J. (2022) · Cronfa (Swansea University) · doi:10.23889/suthesis.61910
Miscellaneous Adverse Events and Causes of Death
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“Comparable posttransplant survival between the two groups persisted after adjusting for established risk factors for posttransplant mortality among heart transplant recipients (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.97–1.25, p = 0.155) [18].”
InfluentialNew surgical methods of treating advanced heart failure
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“17 Because of substantial collinearity among liver-related laboratory values, only 1 marker was included in the multivariable model.”
Utilization and outcomes of cardiopulmonary resuscitated donor hearts in the modern era
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“…largely due to the lack of serial donor echocardiograms, which limits our ability to study the reversibility of depressed EF after CPR. Finally, without access to the list of all potential donors, it is not possible to say how many CPR + donors were underutilized, especially among DCD candidates.”
Increased mortality when combining older donors and recipients in heart transplantation
Walsh, M. G., Cui, E. Y., Satija, D., Gouchoe, D. A., Henn, M. C., Ganapathi, A. M., Whitson, B. A., & Choi, K. (2025) · World Journal of Transplantation · doi:10.5500/wjt.v15.i4.105974
“When examining long-term survival, which has often been cited as a reason for avoiding older donors for younger recipients, our sub-group analysis suggested an association between older donors and higher mid-and long-term mortality in both older and younger recipients[14,15].”
Marx-Schütt, K. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-87862-3.00016-1
Machinski, S. N., Hong, Y., Nasim, U., Dorken‐Gallastegi, A., Iyanna, N., Woolley, B. E., Hickey, G., Keebler, M., Seese, L., Horn, E. T., et al. (2026) · Clinical Transplantation · doi:10.1111/ctr.70569
“[ 18 ] 4 Discussion This study utilized the UNOS registry to evaluate survival following DCD heart transplantation in recipients with prior conventional cardiac surgery, excluding those with d-LVADs or congenital cardiac surgery.”
InfluentialÖzsoy, B., Vercauteren, B., Slambrouck, J. V., Vanluyten, C., Barbarossa, A., Jin, X., Raemdonck, D. E. V., Dmitrieva, J., Khan, A., Jacquemyn, X., et al. (2026) · Transplantation Direct · doi:10.1097/txd.0000000000001984
“13,14 In 15-22 Beyond prediction, ML may also offer a data-driven approach to refine classification.”
Metadata
- Authors
- Kilic, A., Weiss, E. S., George, T. J., Arnaoutakis, G. J., Yuh, D. D., Shah, A. S., & Conte, J. V.
- Affiliations
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Johns Hopkins Hospital (US)
- Venue
- The Annals of Thoracic Surgery
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-03
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 699-704
- ISSN
- 0003-4975 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2042384239
- Cited by
- 131
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 17 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 13.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Annals of Thoracic Surgery (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Transplantation: Methods and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Organ Transplantation Techniques and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Cardiac and Coronary Surgery Techniques
- Keywords
- heart transplantation, long-term survival, transplant recipient characteristics, donor age, donor ischemic time, transplant center volume, mechanical ventilation, diabetes mellitus, race, age, mortality risk factors, United Network for Organ Sharing registry, organ allocation policy, organ shortage, organ procurement, organ donation
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Time Factors, Survival Rate, Case-Control Studies, Heart Transplantation, Survivors
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