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Epidemic Models of Contact Tracing: Systematic Review of Transmission Studies of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
Open accessAbstract
The emergence and reemergence of coronavirus epidemics sparked renewed concerns from global epidemiology researchers and public health administrators. Mathematical models that represented how contact tracing and follow-up may control Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) transmissions were developed for evaluating different infection control interventions, estimating likely number of infections as well as facilitating understanding of their likely epidemiology. We reviewed mathematical models for contact tracing and follow-up control measures of SARS and MERS transmission. Model characteristics, epidemiological parameters and intervention parameters used in the mathematical models from seven studies were summarized. A major concern identified in future epidemics is whether public health administrators can collect all the required data for building epidemiological models in a short period of time during the early phase of an outbreak. Also, currently available models do not explicitly model constrained resources. We urge for closed-loop communication between public health administrators and modelling researchers to come up with guidelines to delineate the collection of the required data in the midst of an outbreak and the inclusion of additional logistical details in future similar models.
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“In conclusion, when SARS-CoV-2 was first identified, initial assessments of its potential epidemic impact and intervention options were informed by epidemiological and modelling analyses.”
From Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) mathematical models and disease parameters: a systematic review (2025) · cites this paper as [26]
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“The analyses, in the absence of characterisation of the new coronavirus, assumed that its natural history and epidemiology (eg, degree of superspreading) would be similar to those of SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV.25,26,129,130”
From Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) mathematical models and disease parameters: a systematic review (2025) · cites this paper as [26]
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Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
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“There are two main approaches for modelling contact tracing [25]: Population-based modelling is a top-down approach depicting disease dynamics on a system level that is typically used for analysing research matters from a macroscopic perspective; Agent-based modelling is a bottom-up approach…”
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Decoding China’s COVID‐19 ‘virus exceptionalism’: Community‐based digital contact tracing in Wuhan
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COVID-19 Contact Tracing Solutions for Mass Gatherings
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Caraballo, T., Bouzalmat, I., Settati, A., Lahrouz, A., Brahim, A. N., & Harchaoui, B. (2024) · Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences · doi:10.1002/mma.9928 · Cited by 16
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“Related Work While manual contact tracing is considered an established response to infectious disease outbreaks [55,56], DCT apps were first developed in response to COVID-19 and have been studied extensively since then [57].”
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Bidkar, V. G., Selvaraj, K., Mishra, M., Shete, V., & Sajjanar, A. (2020) · American Journal of Otolaryngology · doi:10.1016/j.amjoto.2020.102872 · Cited by 14
“They have helped us to create mathematical models for contact tracing and follow up, which are useful for establishing measures to control of transmission while navigating through the pandemic [1].”
BackgroundThompson, K. M., Kalkowska, D. A., & Badizadegan, K. (2021) · Expert Review of Vaccines · doi:10.1080/14760584.2021.1891888 · Cited by 14
“The emergence of SARS motivated modeling to explore the pandemic potential of emerging diseases [4,5], which later shifted to a focus on pandemic influenza [6].”
BackgroundTechnological and analytical review of contact tracing apps for COVID-19 management
Gupta, R., Pandey, G., Chaudhary, P., & Pal, S. K. (2021) · Journal of Location Based Services · doi:10.1080/17489725.2021.1899319 · Cited by 15
“Kwok et al. (2019) have provided a thorough review of mathematical models used for developing the models of contact tracing and follow-up control.”
MethodA Methodology for Determining Which Diseases Warrant Care in a High-Level Containment Care Unit
Cieslak, T. J., Herstein, J. J., Kortepeter, M. G., & Hewlett, A. L. (2019) · Viruses · doi:10.3390/v11090773 · Cited by 14
Dhungel, B., Rahman, M. S., Rahman, M. M., Bhandari, A. K. C., Le, P. M., Biva, N. A., & Gilmour, S. (2022) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph191811613 · Cited by 12
“Estimating a precise reproduction number is essential for determining the severity and size of any infectious disease and planning interventions to control its spread [25].”
BackgroundHowerton, E., Ferrari, M. J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Bogich, T. L., Borchering, R. K., Jewell, C., Nichols, J. D., Probert, W. J. M., Runge, M. C., Tildesley, M. J., et al. (2021) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009518 · Cited by 11
“The utility of “test, trace, and isolate” strategies has been demonstrated in prior outbreaks of novel infectious diseases, including SARS [14] and Ebola [15], as well as in a multitude of mathematical models [16].”
BackgroundA review on COVID-19 transmission, epidemiological features, prevention and vaccination
Zhang, Y., Wu, G., Chen, S., Xu, J., Yimaer, W., Zhang, W., Lin, S. C. C., Hao, Y., Gu, J., & Li, J. (2022) · Medical Review · doi:10.1515/mr-2021-0023 · Cited by 13
“It is necessary to estimate the R 0 of COVID-19 to determine the capability of transmission per primary infectedpersontothesecondarily infectedpersons[105],as well as to provide a reference for the government to make interventions to control the spread of the disease [106].”
BackgroundLi, J., Wang, Y., Wu, J., Ai, J.-W., Zhang, H.-C., Gamber, M., Li, W., Zhang, W., & Sun, W.-J. (2020) · Open Forum Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/ofid/ofaa442 · Cited by 11
“To evaluate the COVID-19 transmission control measures put in place in NYC, the SEIR compartmental model was used, which has been applied to many other respiratory diseases [7, 8].”
MethodKao, I.-H., & Perng, J. (2021) · Results in Physics · doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104287 · Cited by 11
High Performance Agent-Based Modeling to Study Realistic Contact Tracing Protocols
Hoops, S., Chen, J., Adiga, A., Lewis, B. L., Mortveit, H., Baek, H., Wilson, M., Xie, D., Swarup, S., Venkatramanan, S., et al. (2021) · Winter Simulation Conference · doi:10.1109/wsc52266.2021.9715382 · Cited by 11
“The role and effectiveness of contact tracing during the 2014 Ebola, SARS, and MERS outbreaks have also been investigated; see (Eames and Keeling 2003; Liu et al. 2015; Kwok et al. 2019; Olu et al. 2016; Swanson et al. 2018).”
BackgroundBai, Z., Ma, Z., Jing, L., Li, Y., Wang, S., Wang, B.-G., Wu, Y. Y., & Han, X. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-33499-z · Cited by 11
Zhu, H., Liu, S., Li, X., Zhang, W., Osgood, N. D., & Jia, P. (2023) · Journal of Simulation · doi:10.1080/17477778.2023.2189027 · Cited by 12
How Can Hybrid Simulation Support Organizations in Assessing COVID-19 Containment Measures?
Cimini, C., Pezzotta, G., Lagorio, A., Pirola, F., & Cavalieri, S. (2021) · Healthcare · doi:10.3390/healthcare9111412 · Cited by 10
“The efficiency factor represents the overall quarantine and isolation efficiency in transmission control [20].”
BackgroundContact tracing apps for COVID-19 pandemic: Challenges and potentialPreprint
Akinbi, A., Forshaw, M. J., & Blinkhorn, V. (2020) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/6xbcs · Cited by 10
Contact-Tracing-Apps als unterstützende Maßnahme bei der Kontaktpersonennachverfolgung von COVID-19
Jahnel, T., Kernebeck, S., Böbel, S., Buchner, B., Grill, E., Hinck, S., Ranisch, R., Rothenbacher, D., Schüz, B., Starke, D., et al. (2020) · Das Gesundheitswesen · doi:10.1055/a-1195-2474 · Cited by 9
“Smartphone-Apps wurden bereits früher im Pandemie-Management eingesetzt [12, 13].”
BackgroundTanaka, T., Yamaguchi, T., & Sakamoto, Y. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0241170 · Cited by 9
Modelling the anti-COVID19 individual or collective containment strategies in Cameroon
Kouakep, Y. T., & TCHOUMI, S. Y. (2021) · Applied Mathematical Sciences · doi:10.12988/ams.2021.914395 · Cited by 9
A methodology for evaluating digital contact tracing apps based on the COVID-19 experience
Hernández‐Orallo, E., Manzoni, P., Calafate, C. T., & Cano, J. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-17024-2 · Cited by 8
Automated Contact Tracing: a game of big numbers in the time of COVID-19Preprint
Kim, H., & Paul, A. (2020) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2020.04.22.20071043 · Cited by 9
“This brings about additional challenges when the disease 1One study suggested that MERS-CoV can be transmitted before the onset of symptoms [12].”
InfluentialEffectiveness of Contact Tracing Using KNN for COVID-19
Venkatasen, M., Mathivanan, S. K., Mani, P., Jayagopal, P., Thanapal, P., Somanathan, M. S., Upendra Babu, K., & Elangovan, D. (2021) · Journal of Mobile Multimedia · doi:10.13052/jmm1550-4646.17415 · Cited by 8
SIM-D: An Agent-Based Simulator for Modeling Contagion in Population
Waleed, M., Um, T., Tariq, K., Khan, A., & Zahid, Z. U. (2020) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app10217745 · Cited by 8
“This is a realistic approach for observing the spread of diseases and understanding its patterns [30].”
BackgroundAli, A. R., Rehman, D. U., Khan, N. A., Ayaz, M., Ara, A., & Khan, M. (2025) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-024-02452-7 · Cited by 7
“The advancement in mathematical modeling techniques and the availability of computational power have been used by many scholars in the development of epidemic models [1, 2] that have gained significant attention.”
Importance of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in fighting with COVID-19 Epidemic
Solanki, V., Solanki, U., Baliyan, A., Kukreja, V., Lamba, V., & Sahoo, B. K. (2021) · International Conference on Information Systems and Computer Networks (ISCON) · doi:10.1109/iscon52037.2021.9702316 · Cited by 9
Severt, M., Vara, R. C., & del Rey, A. M. (2023) · Technologies · doi:10.3390/technologies11050133 · Cited by 7
“Such models include Susceptible–Infectious–Susceptible (SIS), Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered (SIR), Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered–Susceptible (SIRS), Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR), and SI and SIRS variants, to name only a few [33,34].”
BackgroundA Non-Markovian Model to Assess Contact Tracing for the Containment of COVID-19
Vajdi, A., Cohnstaedt, L. W., Noronha, L. E., Mitzel, D., Wilson, W. C., & Scoglio, C. (2023) · IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering · doi:10.1109/tnse.2023.3293690 · Cited by 7
“Asystematicreviewofthese modelscanbefoundin[25].”
Values for a Post-Pandemic Future
Dennis, M., Ishmaev, G., Umbrello, S., & van den Hoven, J. (2022) · Philosophy of engineering and technology · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-08424-9 · Cited by 9
Automated Contact Tracing: A Game of Big Numbers in the Time of COVID-19Preprint
Kim, H., & Paul, A. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3590183 · Cited by 7
Morgenstern, C., Rawson, T., Routledge, I., Kont, M., Imai-Eaton, N., Skarp, J., Doohan, P., McCain, K., Johnson, R., Unwin, H. J. T., et al. (2025) · The Lancet Microbe · doi:10.1016/j.lanmic.2025.101144 · Cited by 6
COVID-19 and the Rationale for Pharmacotherapy: A South African Perspective
Richards, G. A., Mer, M., Schleicher, G., & Stacey, S. L. (2020) · Wits Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.18772/26180197.2020.v2nsia2 · Cited by 6
“11 SARS-CoV-2 is a pathogen phylogenetically similar to two previous zoonotic coronaviruses: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2002 (SARS-CoV-1) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2012 (MERS-CoV), the case fatality rates (CFRs) of which were 7%–10% and 30%, respectively.(1,2) While the CF…”
BackgroundWithin Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Humans: Modeling Immune Responses and Antiviral Treatments
Ghosh, I. (2021) · SN Computer Science · doi:10.1007/s42979-021-00919-8 · Cited by 6
Optimizing the order of actions in a model of contact tracing
Meister, M., & Kleinberg, J. M. (2023) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad003 · Cited by 5
“The importance of developing prioritization strategies for contact tracing under resource constraints is highlighted in recent surveys (33, 34).”
Ekpenyong, M. E., Udo, I. J., Uzoka, F., & Attai, K. F. (2020) · International Conference on Medical and Health Informatics (ICMHI) · doi:10.1145/3418094.3418141 · Cited by 6
“Kwok et al. [17] derived mathematical models of contact tracing and follow-up control measures for SARS and MERS transmission; and considered epidemiological parameters, model characteristics and intervention parameters.”
BackgroundSimulation Analysis of Epidemic Trend for COVID-19 Based on SEIRS Model
Ge, J., Zhang, L., Chen, Z., Chen, G., & Peng, J. (2020) · IEEE International Conference on Cognitive Informatics & Cognitive Computing (ICCI*CC) · doi:10.1109/iccicc50026.2020.9450226 · Cited by 6
“Kwok and Tang discussed the mathematical models for contact tracing and follow-up control measures of SARS and MERS transmission, and summarized the model characteristics, epidemiological parameters and intervention parameters used in the mathematical models from seven studies [6].”
MethodModelling and Control of Epidemics Across Scales
Hernandez-Vargas, E. A., González, A. H., Beck, C. L., Bi, X., Campana, F. C., & Giordano, G. (2022) · IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC) · doi:10.1109/cdc51059.2022.9992380 · Cited by 6
“Mass testing, along with contact tracing that aims at identifying and isolating infected individuals by following the contact network of detected infected [83], [142], can also be represented by explicitly including diagnosed and nondiagnosed compartments in epidemic models: a higher level of testing and tracing is th…”
BackgroundCoronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19): A Survey of Analysis, Modeling and RecommendationsPreprint
Amjad, T., Daud, A. Y., Hayat, M. K., Afzal, M. T., & Dawood, H. (2020) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0495.v1 · Cited by 6
“It belongs to the family of coronaviruses that have already appeared in past namely, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012 (Kwok et al. 2019).”
BackgroundSIR Model for Estimations of the Coronavirus Epidemic Dynamics in Iran
Deldar, M., Ghorabi, S. T., & Sayehmiri, K. (2020) · Journal of Biostatistics and Epidemiology · doi:10.18502/jbe.v6i2.4872 · Cited by 5
“com family of the SARS that outbreak also in South China in 2002-2003 (4).”
BackgroundArtificial Intelligence against COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comprehensive Insight
Masood, S., Equbal, A., Equbal, I., Ahmad, S., Khan, N. Z., & Khan, Z. A. (2021) · Current Medical Imaging Formerly Current Medical Imaging Reviews · doi:10.2174/1573405617666211004115208 · Cited by 7
Jeon, S., Watson-Lewis, L., Rainisch, G., Chiu, C.-C., Castonguay, F. M., Fischer, L. S., Moonan, P. K., Oeltmann, J. E., Adhikari, B. B., Lawman, H. G., et al. (2024) · Emerging infectious diseases · doi:10.3201/eid3002.230988 · Cited by 5
“In addition, CICT has proven effective in controlling outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome and Ebola ( 11 ) and will serve as an important tool for managing other infectious diseases with pandemic potential.”
Ladib, M., Ouhinou, A., & Yakubu, A. (2024) · Infectious Disease Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.010 · Cited by 5
“…perspective, modelling the process of contact tracing itself, was also subject of study for numerous research papers (Browne, Gulbudak, & Webb, 2015; Huo, 2015; Hyman, Li, & Stanley, 2003; Kwok et al., 2019; Müller & Kretzschmar, 2021a; Rusu, Emonet, & Farrahi, 2021; Tsimring & Huerta, 2003).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Kwok, K. O., Tang, A., Wei, V. W. I., Park, W. H., Yeoh, E. K., & Riley, S.
- Affiliations
- Chinese University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Sungkyunkwan University (KR)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Kwok, Kin On
- Tang, Arthur
- Venue
- Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal
- Published
- 2019-01
- Volume
- 17
- Pages
- 186-194
- ISSN
- 2001-0370 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6376160
- OpenAlex
- W2913820390
- Semantic Scholar
- 3baedc51f6e23ad1e8bf4b65980bd40e161a148f
- Cited by
- 172
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 5.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (200861/Z/16/Z)
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (MIDAS U01 GM110721-01)
- Health and Medical Research Fund (17160302)
- National Institute for Health Research
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Keywords
- contact tracing, follow-up, SARS, MERS, coronavirus transmission, epidemic modeling, mathematical model, infection control interventions, epidemiological parameters, resource constraints, public health administration
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