Diabetes incidence and influencing factors in women with and without gestational diabetes mellitus: A 15 year population-based follow-up cohort study

Abstract

Aim Very few extensive follow-up investigations evaluating patients with history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have been documented. We conducted this longitudinal study to estimate the incidence of diabetes and its predictors in women with and without GDM. Method A total of 2458 eligible women, aged 20-50years (476 with GDM and 1982 without GDM) were selected from among participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose study, based on the World Health Organization definition for GDM screening. Pooled logistic regression was used to assess the association between time-dependent covariates and diabetes. Results The incidence rate of diagnosed diabetes was 9/1000 for women with GDM and 4/1000 for their counterparts, without GDM. Kaplan-Meier curve indicated a significantly shorter median time for developing diabetes in women with a history of GDM (6.95years [IQ: 4.22-10.71]), compared to their healthy peers (8.45years [IQ: 5.08-10.89]). BMI and previous family history of diabetes were found as major risk factors for future diabetes in women with GDM. Conclusion The results presented here lead to better identification and selection of at-risk women with prior GDM history.