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The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model
Open accessAbstract
Since it first appeared in China's Guangdong Province, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has caused serious damages to many parts of the world, especially Asia. Little is known about its epidemiology. We developed a modified discrete SIR model including susceptible individuals, non-hospitalized SARS persons; hospitalized patients, cured hospital patients, and those who have died due to SARS infection. Here, we demonstrate the effective reproduction number is determined by infection rates and infectious period of hospitalized and non-hospitalized SARS patients. Both infection rate and the effective reproductive number of the SARS virus are significantly negatively correlated with the total number of cumulative cases, indicating that the control measures implemented in China are effective, and the outbreak pattern of accumulative SARS cases in China is a logistic growth curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of SARS virus is 2.87 in mainland of China, very close to the estimations in Singapore and Hong Kong.
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“Growth rate central estimates ranged from 4⋅22% per day, corresponding to the midpoint of the estimate range captured by Zhang, 43 to 16% per day (four estimates from two high-QA-score studies, all estimated in the presence of control measures); figure 4C, corresponding to doubling times of 4-16 days (appendix 1 p 5).”
From Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) mathematical models and disease parameters: a systematic review (2025) · cites this paper as [43]
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References 33 · Cited by 32
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Monteriro, L.H.A., Sasso, J.B., Beilinck J.G.C., 2006b. Continous and discrete approached to the epidemiology of viral spreading in populations taking into account the delay of incubation time. Ecol. Model., doi:10.1016/j.ecomodel.2006.09.27. · DOI
Metadata
- Authors
- Zhang, Z.
- Affiliations
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Zhang, Zhibin
- ORCID
- Zhang, Zhibin
- Venue
- Ecological Modelling
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2007-06
- Volume
- 204
- Issue
- 3-4
- Pages
- 420-426
- ISSN
- 0304-3800 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7117038
- OpenAlex
- W2105948957
- Semantic Scholar
- 265a466ad3656b7437e8b7e11c25bcbb9e1abf24
- Cited by
- 32
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 1.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Ecological Modelling (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Chinese Academy of Sciences
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Keywords
- SARS, outbreak patterns, basic reproduction number, SIR model, logistic curve, infectious period, infection rate, epidemic control measures, hospitalized patients, cumulative cases, China
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