Global learning loss in student achievement: First estimates using comparable reading scores
Open accessAbstract
We estimate the global impact of COVID-19 on student reading using international achievement tests. We model the effect of school closures (full and partial) on achievement by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend using data from all rounds of PIRLS. Scores declined an average of 33 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent to more than a year of schooling. Losses are larger for students in schools that faced relatively longer closures. While there are no differences by sex, lower-achieving students experienced larger losses. The educational loss may translate to a 0.68 percentage point reduction of GDP growth for a global loss of $66 trillion.
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Global studies document significant learning losses; international reading scores declined by an average of 33 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent to more than a year of schooling.
“Also, global studies—that is, studies using data from international assessments where students in many countries take the same tests and under the same conditions, thus, making them comparable across country and time—document significant learning losses24,25. International reading scores declined by an average of 33 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent to more than a year of schooling.”
From COVID-19, school closures, and student learning outcomes. New global evidence from PISA (2025) · cites this paper as [24]
Losses are greater for disadvantaged students, those struggling before the pandemic, and by duration.
“Losses are greater for disadvantaged students, those struggling before the pandemic, and by duration.”
From COVID-19, school closures, and student learning outcomes. New global evidence from PISA (2025) · cites this paper as [24]
For PIRLS, losses are about a year's worth of learning.
“For PIRLS, losses are about a year’s worth of learning.”
From COVID-19, school closures, and student learning outcomes. New global evidence from PISA (2025) · cites this paper as [24]
Until now, there has only been one international student assessment, covering only fourth grade students in just 55 countries.
“However, until now, there has only been one international student assessment. It covered only fourth grade students in just 55 countries.”
From COVID-19, school closures, and student learning outcomes. New global evidence from PISA (2025) · cites this paper as [24]
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References 8 · Cited by 51
- Authors
- Jakubowski, M., Gajderowicz, T., & Patrinos, H. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Warsaw (PL)
- World Bank (US)
- Corresponding author
- Gajderowicz, Tomasz
- Venue
- Economics Letters
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-11
- Volume
- 232
- Pages
- 111313
- ISSN
- 0165-1765 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4385988503
- Semantic Scholar
- fc635f4c10c4e06a8d69e3b1a66b02139907c2a3
- Cited by
- 51
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 37.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Economics Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- ReIn UW (University of Warsaw) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Narodowe Centrum Nauki (UMO-2021/42/E/HS4/00305)
- World Bank Group
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Education during COVID-19 pandemic
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, learning loss, academic performance, reading achievement, school closures, PIRLS, fourth grade, standardized test scores, GDP growth, low-achieving students, sex differences
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