Model predictive control of distributed energy resources in residential buildings considering forecast uncertainties

Abstract

Forecast uncertainties pose a considerable challenge to the success of model predictive control (MPC) in buildings. Numerous possibilities for considering forecast uncertainties in MPCs are available, but an in-depth comparison is lacking. This paper compares two main approaches to consider uncertainties: robust and stochastic MPC. They are benchmarked against a deterministic MPC and an MPC with perfect forecast. The MPCs utilize a holistic building model to reflect modern smart homes that include photovoltaic power generation and storage, thermally controlled loads, and smart appliances. Real-world data are used to identify the thermal building model. The performance of the various controllers is investigated under three levels of uncertainty for two building models with different envelope performance. For the highly insulated building, the deterministic MPC achieves satisfactory thermal comfort when the forecast error is medium or low, but the thermal comfort is compromised for high forecast errors. In the poorly insulated building, thermal comfort is compromised at medium and high forecast errors. Compared to the deterministic MPC, the robust MPC increases the electricity cost by up to 4.5% and provides complete temperature constraint satisfaction while the stochastic MPC increases the electricity cost by less than 1% and fulfills the thermal comfort requirements.