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Cited by 14Integrated Energy Systems OptimizationElectric Power System OptimizationPower Systems and Renewable Energy

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Electricity supply and demand in the European market: the effect on generation adequacy in a dunkelflaute period

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Beck-Bang, Andreas Christian, Overgaard, Simon Bay, Keles, Dogan·2026·Energy Policy
DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114910
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Abstract

The recent energy crisis and uncertainty in reaching net-zero goals highlight the need to assess risks in the electricity mix and future developments. With the phasing out of coal power plants, aging gas and nuclear fleets, and ongoing decommissioning, the amount of flexible capacity will be significantly reduced in the North-Western European (NWE) energy system, putting the electricity system under pressure. This study evaluates generation adequacy in three 2035 electricity mix scenarios across 11 European countries, with a central focus on adequacy during a prolonged dunkelflaute period, assessed through expected energy not served (ENS). A baseline analysis identifies periods of system strain based on flexible capacity availability during peak residual demand in the EU-27, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The worst-case two-week dunkelflaute was determined based on the highest residual demand, with non-flexible generation simulated using capacity factors from eight climate years. The dunkeflaute which occurs in times when renewable sources are hardly available for power production and is a growing challenge for our modern power systems in which conventional flexible capacities are shrinking fast. Our results indicate that while capacity is generally sufficient for unexpected demand spikes, vulnerabilities emerge due to reliance on non-flexible onshore and offshore wind and PV production. During the dunkelflaute period, ENS is observed in all scenarios, with Germany particularly at risk, experiencing an hourly average ENS at GWh scale. Storage and demand-side response showed limited ability to cover persistent shortages, and while cross-border transmission alleviates system strain, it cannot fully resolve national shortfalls during widespread low renewable output. All modeled countries face ENS in an additional scenario considering only currently planned capacity expansions. These findings highlight the need for flexible capacities, with EU-level coordination and support policies essential to ensure generation adequacy during dunkelflaute periods across the entire region.

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Metadata

Authors
Beck-Bang, A. C., Overgaard, S. B., & Keles, D.
Affiliations
Technical University of Denmark (DK)
Corresponding author
Beck-Bang, Andreas Christian
ORCID
Keles, Dogan
Venue
Energy Policy
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2026-01
Volume
208
Pages
114910
ISSN
0301-4215 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114910
OpenAlex
W7084768176
Semantic Scholar
2c0d65f1992f409e138225db0d8988160a34689b
Cited by
14
References
24
Citations by year
2026: 14
FWCI
3.15
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
Energy Policy (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Power System Optimization
  • Physical Sciences › Energy › Energy Engineering and Power Technology › Power Systems and Renewable Energy
Keywords
generation adequacy, electricity supply and demand, energy not supplied, energy storage, demand response, cross-border electricity transmission, capacity expansion, coal phase-out, nuclear decommissioning, Northwest Europe

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