Student or educator? Sign up with your school email and get 6 months of Pro free.
CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 3

The DOI matches its Crossref record; the references it cites are not checked yet.

Linking land-based pollution pathways to coral reef exposure and ecological response

Steward, Rex, Chopin, Pierre, Bertoncelj, Vesna, Verburg, Peter H.·2026·Environmental Pollution
DOI 10.1016/j.envpol.2026.127839
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Land-based pollution is a major driver of coral reef degradation, yet the pathways linking terrestrial activities to marine exposure and ecological response remain difficult to resolve. Using Curaçao as a case study, we developed and tested 78 land-based pressure indices (LBPIs) that represent alternative spatial assumptions about pollutant sources, contributing catchments, and coastal dispersion. These indices were evaluated both as proxies for nutrient enrichment, using water-quality indicators, and as integrative measures of land-based pressure, using benthic condition. The framework spans simple land-use metrics (e.g., built-up area) to process-based nutrient export and hydrodynamic connectivity models, allowing systematic evaluation of land-based pollution pathways and their ecological consequences. We assessed how these indices explain spatial variation in reef pollution signatures (macroalgal δ15N, a tracer of wastewater-derived nitrogen) and ecological condition. Coral cover was evaluated across two survey years (1982 and 2015), while δ15N and benthic community composition were assessed for 2015. Results show that LBPIs capture most of the spatial variation in δ15N (R2 = 0.78), demonstrating their effectiveness in representing land-derived nutrient exposure. By contrast, coral cover was more weakly explained by LBPIs alone (R2 = 0.23), but model fits improved markedly when environmental variables such as wave exposure and geomorphology were included. Proxy performance also shifted over time: localized dispersion and land-use intensity metrics performed best in 1982, while broader source metrics combined with model-based connectivity were strongest in 2015, suggesting changes in pollution regimes or reef sensitivity. These findings demonstrate how alternative representations of land-based pollution pathways influence predictions of ecological exposure and response. The approach advances process-based modeling of pollutant transport across the land-sea continuum, providing transferable methods for diagnosing and managing land-derived pressures on coral reef ecosystems.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.envpol.2026.127839

Cites

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet

Cited by 3

Research works printed but not linked: 87

  1. Adams, 2014, Planning across freshwater and terrestrial realms: cobenefits and tradeoffs between conservation actions, Conserv. Lett., 7, 425, 10.1111/conl.12080 · DOI
  2. Aguiar, 2023, Detection and impact of sewage pollution on South Kohala's coral reefs, Hawai‘i, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 188, 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.114662 · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.114662
  3. Álvarez-Romero, 2015, Integrated cross-realm planning: a decision-makers’ perspective, Biol. Conserv., 191, 799, 10.1016/j.biocon.2015.07.003 · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.07.003
  4. Álvarez-Romero, 2013, A novel approach to model exposure of coastal-marine ecosystems to riverine flood plumes based on remote sensing techniques, J. Environ. Manag., 119, 194, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.01.036 · DOI
  5. Álvarez-Romero, 2014, Modeling catchment nutrients and sediment loads to inform regional management of water quality in coastal-marine ecosystems: a comparison of two approaches, J. Environ. Manag., 146, 164, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.007 · DOI
  6. Álvarez-Romero, 2012, Integrated land-sea conservation planning: the missing links, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Systemat., 42, 381, 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102209-144702 · DOI · Paper page
  7. Bak, 2005, Coral reef crisis in deep and shallow reefs: 30 years of constancy and change in reefs of Curacao and Bonaire, Coral Reefs, 24, 475, 10.1007/s00338-005-0009-1 · DOI · Paper page
  8. Ban, 2014, Evidence for multiple stressor interactions and effects on coral reefs, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 681, 10.1111/gcb.12453 · DOI · Paper page
  9. Bellwood, 2019, Coral reef conservation in the Anthropocene: confronting spatial mismatches and prioritizing functions, Biol. Conserv., 236, 604, 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.056 · DOI · Paper page
  10. Bertoncelj, 2025, Flow patterns, hotspots, and connectivity of land-derived substances at the sea surface of Curaçao in the southern Caribbean, Ocean Sci., 21, 945, 10.5194/os-21-945-2025 · doi:10.5194/os-21-945-2025
  11. Blanco, 2011, Estimation of nearshore groundwater discharge and its potential effects on a fringing coral reef, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 62, 770, 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.01.005 · DOI
  12. Bradbury, 1981, The effects of a major forcing function, wave energy, on a coral reef ecosystem, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 5, 229, 10.3354/meps005229 · doi:10.3354/meps005229
  13. Brewer, 2013, Effects of human population density and proximity to markets on coral reef fishes vulnerable to extinction by fishing, Conserv. Biol., 27, 443, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01963.x · DOI
  14. Bries, 2004, Damage to the leeward reefs of Curaçao and Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles from a rare storm event: Hurricane Lenny, November 1999, Coral Reefs, 23, 297, 10.1007/s00338-004-0379-9 · doi:10.1007/s00338-004-0379-9
  15. Brodie, 2012, Terrestrial pollutant runoff to the Great Barrier Reef: an update of issues, priorities and management responses, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 65, 81, 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.12.012 · DOI · Paper page
  16. Bruno, 2016, Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density, Sci. Rep., 6, 10.1038/srep29778 · DOI
  17. Cantarero, 2019, Offshore submarine groundwater discharge at a coral reef front controlled by faults, G-cubed, 20, 3170
  18. Carlson, 2021, Synergistic benefits of conserving land-sea ecosystems, Glob. Ecol. Conserv., 28
  19. Carlson, 2019, Land use impacts on coral reef health: a ridge-to-reef perspective, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00562 · DOI · Paper page
  20. Chollett, 2012, Predicting the distribution of Montastraea reefs using wave exposure, Coral Reefs, 31, 493, 10.1007/s00338-011-0867-7 · DOI
  21. Cinner, 2009, Linking social and ecological systems to sustain coral reef fisheries, Curr. Biol., 19, 206, 10.1016/j.cub.2008.11.055 · DOI · Paper page
  22. Darling, 2019, Social–environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the anthropocene, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 3, 1341, 10.1038/s41559-019-0953-8 · DOI · Paper page
  23. de Bakker, 2017, 40 years of benthic community change on the Caribbean reefs of Curaçao and Bonaire: the rise of slimy cyanobacterial mats, Coral Reefs, 36, 355, 10.1007/s00338-016-1534-9 · DOI · Paper page
  24. de Jong, 2025, High-resolution temporal assessment of physicochemical variability and water quality in tropical semi-enclosed bays and coral reefs, Sci. Total Environ., 968, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.178810 · DOI
  25. Delevaux, 2018, A linked land-sea modeling framework to inform ridge-to-reef management in high oceanic islands, PLoS One, 13, 10.1371/journal.pone.0193230 · DOI
  26. Dollar, 1982, Wave stress and coral community structure in Hawaii, Coral Reefs, 1, 71, 10.1007/BF00301688 · doi:10.1007/bf00301688
  27. Draper, 1995, Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 57, 45, 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02015.x · DOI · Paper page
  28. Edmunds, 2025, Long-term community dynamics are heterogeneous between fringing- and fore-reef habitats on an Indo-Pacific coral reef, Ecosphere, 16, 10.1002/ecs2.70398 · doi:10.1002/ecs2.70398
  29. Elliott, 2018, Decline in coral cover and flattening of the reefs around Mauritius (1998–2010), PeerJ, 6, 10.7717/peerj.6014 · DOI
  30. Ellis, 2019, Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 4131, 10.1111/gcb.14819 · DOI · Paper page
  31. Fabricius, 2005, Effects of terrestrial runoff on the ecology of corals and coral reefs: review and synthesis, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 50, 125, 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2004.11.028 · DOI · Paper page
  32. Fong, 2018, Nutrient fluctuations in marine systems: press versus pulse nutrient subsidies affect producer competition and diversity in estuaries and coral reefs, Estuaries Coasts, 41, 421, 10.1007/s12237-017-0291-5 · DOI
  33. Ford, 2020, Local human impacts disrupt relationships between benthic reef assemblages and environmental predictors, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 10.3389/fmars.2020.571115 · DOI
  34. Ford, 2024, Recurring bleaching events disrupt the spatial properties of coral reef benthic communities across scales, Rem. Sens. Ecol. Conserv., 10, 39, 10.1002/rse2.355 · DOI
  35. Gardner, 2011, Quantifying watershed sensitivity to spatially variable N loading and the relative importance of watershed N retention mechanisms, Water Resour. Res., 47, 10.1029/2010WR009738 · DOI
  36. Gardner, 2003, Long-term region-wide declines in Caribbean corals, Science, 301, 958, 10.1126/science.1086050 · DOI · Paper page
  37. Gartner, 2002, Use of δ15N signatures of different functional forms of macroalgae and filter-feeders to reveal temporal and spatial patterns in sewage dispersal, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 235, 63, 10.3354/meps235063 · doi:10.3354/meps235063
  38. Gove, 2023, Coral reefs benefit from reduced land–sea impacts under ocean warming, Nature, 621, 536, 10.1038/s41586-023-06394-w · DOI
  39. Gove, 2015, Coral reef benthic regimes exhibit non-linear threshold responses to natural physical drivers, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 522, 33, 10.3354/meps11118 · DOI
  40. Grady, 2013, The influence of sea level rise and changes in fringing reef morphology on gradients in alongshore sediment transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3096, 10.1002/grl.50577 · doi:10.1002/grl.50577
  41. Halpern, 2019, Recent pace of change in human impact on the world's ocean, Sci. Rep., 9, 10.1038/s41598-019-47201-9 · DOI · Paper page
  42. Halpern, 2008, A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems, Science, 319, 948, 10.1126/science.1149345 · DOI · Paper page
  43. Hughes, 2017, Coral reefs in the Anthropocene, Nature, 546, 82, 10.1038/nature22901 · DOI · Paper page
  44. John, 2025, Terrigenous inputs link nutrient dynamics to microbial communities in a tropical lagoon, Limnol. Oceanogr., 70, 3741, 10.1002/lno.70240 · doi:10.1002/lno.70240
  45. Jouffray, 2015, Identifying multiple coral reef regimes and their drivers across the Hawaiian archipelago, Phil. Trans. Biol. Sci., 10.1098/rstb.2013.0268 · DOI
  46. Jupiter, 2017, Opportunities and constraints for implementing integrated land–sea management on islands, Environ. Conserv., 44, 254, 10.1017/S0376892917000091 · doi:10.1017/s0376892917000091
  47. Knowlton, 2008, Shifting baselines, local impacts, and global change on coral reefs, PLoS Biol., 6, e54, 10.1371/journal.pbio.0060054 · DOI · Paper page
  48. Kruijssen, 2024, Hydrogeological conceptualization of a small island groundwater system using historical data, Neth. J. Geosci., 103, e27
  49. Larsen, 2023, High-resolution hydrodynamics of coral reefs and tracing of pollutants from hotel areas along the west coast of Unguja Island, Zanzibar, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 191, 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.114968 · DOI
  50. Lee, 2009, Landscape ecological approach to the relationships of land use patterns in watersheds to water quality characteristics, Landsc. Urban Plann., 92, 80, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2009.02.008 · DOI · Paper page
  51. Mingotti, 2022, Dynamics of sediment-laden plumes in the ocean, Flowline, 2, E26
  52. Mora, 2008, A clear human footprint in the coral reefs of the Caribbean, Proc. Biol. Sci.
  53. Mudge, 2023, Disturbance intensification is altering the trait composition of Caribbean reefs, locking them into a low functioning state, Sci. Rep., 13, 10.1038/s41598-023-40672-x · DOI
  54. Mumby, 2017, Embracing a world of subtlety and nuance on coral reefs, Coral Reefs, 36, 1003, 10.1007/s00338-017-1591-8 · DOI
  55. Murphy, 2019, A human impact metric for coastal ecosystems with application to seagrass beds in Atlantic Canada, FACETS, 4, 210, 10.1139/facets-2018-0044 · DOI
  56. Nalley, 2023, A systematic review and meta-analysis of the direct effects of nutrients on corals, Sci. Total Environ., 856, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159093 · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159093
  57. Norat-Ramírez, 2019, A septic waste index model to measure the impact of septic tanks on coastal water quality and coral reef communities in Rincon, Puerto Rico, Ocean Coast Manag., 169, 201, 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.12.016 · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.12.016
  58. Orchard, 2025, River radii: a comparative national framework for remote monitoring of environmental change at River mouths, Remote Sens., 17, 10.3390/rs17081369 · DOI
  59. Palola, 2025, Nutrientscape ecology: a whole-system framework to support the understanding and management of coastal nutrient connectivity, Landsc. Ecol., 40, 1, 10.1007/s10980-025-02060-w · DOI
  60. Paris, 2008, River-reef connectivity in the Meso-American Region, Coral Reefs, 27, 773, 10.1007/s00338-008-0396-1 · doi:10.1007/s00338-008-0396-1
  61. Pawlik, 2016, A vicious circle? Altered carbon and nutrient cycling may explain the low resilience of Caribbean coral reefs, Bioscience, 66, 470, 10.1093/biosci/biw047 · DOI
  62. Pellowe, 2023, Global analysis of reef ecosystem services reveals synergies, trade-offs and bundles, Ecosyst. Serv., 63, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2023.101545 · DOI
  63. Pratchett, 2013, Changes in bleaching susceptibility among corals subject to ocean warming and recurrent bleaching in Moorea, French Polynesia, PLoS One, 8, 10.1371/journal.pone.0070443 · DOI · Paper page
  64. Renard, 2010, Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: the challenge of identifying input and structural errors, Water Resour. Res., 46, 10.1029/2009WR008328 · DOI · Paper page
  65. Richardson, 2017, Sources and spatial variability of groundwater-delivered nutrients in Maunalua Bay, Oʻahu, Hawai‘i, J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud., 11, 178
  66. Risk, 2009, The use of δ15N in assessing sewage stress on coral reefs, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 58, 793, 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2009.02.008 · DOI
  67. Robinson, 2018, Environmental conditions and herbivore biomass determine coral reef benthic community composition: implications for quantitative baselines, Coral Reefs, 37, 1157, 10.1007/s00338-018-01737-w · DOI
  68. Rogers, 2022, Assessing effects of sediment delivery to coral reefs: a Caribbean watershed perspective, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 10.3389/fmars.2021.773968 · DOI
  69. Sakamaki, 2022, Effects of watershed land use on coastal marine environments: a multiscale exploratory analysis with multiple biogeochemical indicators in fringing coral reefs of Okinawa Island, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 183, 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114054 · DOI
  70. Sanchez Barranco, 2025, Seasonal changes in bay water column properties and their influence on the distribution of dissolved and particulate substances along the south coast of Curaçao (Caribbean Sea), Mar. Pollut. Bull., 212, 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.117545 · DOI
  71. Sandin, 2022, Benthic assemblages are more predictable than fish assemblages at an island scale, Coral Reefs, 10.1007/s00338-022-02272-5 · doi:10.1007/s00338-022-02272-5
  72. Smith, 2016, Re-evaluating the health of coral reef communities: baselines and evidence for human impacts across the central Pacific, Proc. Biol. Sci., 283
  73. Steward, 2025, Impact-driven spatial planning for future-proofing small island states: A scenario-based land model analysis in Curaçao, Appl. Geogr., 178, 103604, 10.1016/j.apgeog.2025.103604 · DOI
  74. Sura, 2023, Press versus pulse nutrient supply and species interactions mediate growth of coral reef macroalgae, Oikos, 2023, 10.1111/oik.09716 · DOI
  75. Tulloch, 2016, Improving conservation outcomes for coral reefs affected by future oil palm development in Papua New Guinea, Biol. Conserv., 203, 43, 10.1016/j.biocon.2016.08.013 · DOI
  76. Umezawa, 2002, Fine-scale mapping of land-derived nitrogen in coral reefs by δ15N in macroalgae, Limnol. Oceanogr., 47, 1405, 10.4319/lo.2002.47.5.1405 · DOI
  77. Van Duyl, 1985, Atlas of the living reefs of Curaçao and Bonaire (Netherlands Antilles), Stud. Flora Fauna Surinam Netherlan Antilles, 117, 1
  78. Vermeij, 2011, Juvenile coral abundance has decreased by more than 50% in only three decades on a small Caribbean Island, Diversity, 3, 10.3390/d3030296 · doi:10.3390/d3030296
  79. Ward, 2023, The importance of resolving nearshore currents in coastal dispersal models, Ocean Model., 183, 10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102181 · DOI
  80. Wear, 2015, Sewage pollution: mitigation is key for coral reef stewardship, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1355, 15, 10.1111/nyas.12785 · DOI · Paper page
  81. Wedding, 2018, Advancing the integration of spatial data to map human and natural drivers on coral reefs, PLoS One, 13, 10.1371/journal.pone.0189792 · DOI
  82. Weijerman, 2015, How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs, Prog. Oceanogr., 138, 559, 10.1016/j.pocean.2014.12.017 · DOI
  83. Williams, 2019, Coral reef ecology in the Anthropocene, Funct. Ecol., 33, 1014, 10.1111/1365-2435.13290 · DOI
  84. Williams-Subiza, 2022, Point source pollution influences water quality of Patagonian streams more than land cover, River Res. Appl., 38, 69, 10.1002/rra.3881 · DOI
  85. Windom, 2006, Submarine groundwater discharge: a large, previously unrecognized source of dissolved iron to the South Atlantic Ocean, Mar. Chem., 102, 252, 10.1016/j.marchem.2006.06.016 · DOI · Paper page
  86. Wit, 2025, Hydrogeochemical signatures and human impact: a comprehensive analysis of groundwater quality on the semi-arid Island of Curaçao, Soc. Sci. Res. Netw.
  87. Woodhead, 2019, Coral reef ecosystem services in the Anthropocene, Funct. Ecol., 33, 1023, 10.1111/1365-2435.13331 · DOI · Paper page

Metadata

Authors
Steward, R., Chopin, P., Bertoncelj, V., & Verburg, P. H.
Venue
Environmental Pollution
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2026-05
Volume
396
Pages
127839
ISSN
0269-7491
DOI
10.1016/j.envpol.2026.127839
Cited by
3
Language
en
Licence
Funders
Dutch Research Council (NWOCA.2019.003)

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

How to cite

Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.

This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Linking land-based pollution pathways to coral reef exposure and ecological response. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.envpol.2026.127839
The paper
Steward, R., Chopin, P., Bertoncelj, V., & Verburg, P. H. (2026). Linking land-based pollution pathways to coral reef exposure and ecological response. Environmental Pollution. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2026.127839

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.