Sensory shelf-life predictions by survival analysis accelerated storage models

Abstract

An Arrhenius model and survival analysis are introduced to analyze data based on consumers acceptance or rejection of samples stored at different times and different temperatures. Sample data comprises 60 consumers who observed raw minced beef samples stored at 2 degrees C, 9 degrees C and 19 degrees C, with seven different storage times for each temperature, answering yes or no as to whether they would accept the samples. An activation energy of 15.3 kcal/mol was estimated from this censored data set, and shelf-life predictions for temperatures outside the tested temperature range were obtained. In the present study it was found that experimental storage at three temperatures was necessary to obtain satisfactory shelf-life estimations for temperatures outside the tested range.