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Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine

Wang, Yihan, Bouri, Elie, Fareed, Zeeshan, Dai, Yuhui·2022·Finance Research Letters

Abstract

We evaluate the transmission of returns and volatility in the universe of commodities around the war in Ukraine. The total volatility spillover increases from 35% to 85%, exceeding the level seen during the pandemic. The role of commodities changes in both return and volatility spillover systems. Crude oil becomes a net transmitter of return spillovers whereas wheat and soybeans become net receivers of return spillovers. Silver, gold, copper, platinum, aluminium, and sugar become net transmitters of volatility. Geopolitical risk Granger causes the spillover indices. High levels of return and volatility spillovers are associated with high levels of geopolitical risk.

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Metadata

Authors
Wang, Y., Bouri, E., Fareed, Z., & Dai, Y.
Venue
Finance Research Letters
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2022-10
Volume
49
Pages
103066
ISSN
1544-6123 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W4282971507
Cited by
330
References
0
FWCI
56.29
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103066
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Wang, Y., Bouri, E., Fareed, Z., & Dai, Y. (2022). Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine. Finance Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103066

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.