Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease
Open accessAbstract
INTRODUCTION: Lifetime risks are the probabilities of progressing to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia during one's lifespan. Here, we report the first estimates of the lifetime and ten-year risks of AD dementia based on age, gender, and biomarker tests for preclinical disease. METHODS: We used a multistate model for the disease process together with US death rates. RESULTS: Lifetime risks of AD dementia vary considerably by age, gender, and the preclinical or clinical disease state of the individual. For example, the lifetime risks for a female with only amyloidosis are 8.4% for a 90-year old and 29.3% for a 65-year old. Persons younger than 85 years with mild cognitive impairment, amyloidosis, and neurodegeneration have lifetime risks of AD dementia greater than 50%. DISCUSSION: Most persons with preclinical AD will not develop AD dementia during their lifetimes. Lifetime risks help interpret the clinical significance of biomarker screening tests for AD.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The potential violation of the independence assumption was addressed by taking age as a time-dependent covariate.
“This was addressed by taking age as the time-dependent covariate, which has been applied before to overcome this issue [22, 47].”
From Duration of preclinical, prodromal, and dementia stages of Alzheimer's disease in relation to age, sex, and <i>APOE</i> genotype (2019) · cites this paper as [47]
Cognitively unimpaired individuals with biomarker positivity will not invariably experience subsequent cognitive decline; the best current estimates of lifetime dementia risk range from 5% to 42%.
“Cognitively unimpaired individuals with biomarker positivity will not invariably experience subsequent cognitive decline; the best current estimates of lifetime dementia risk range from 5% to 42%.33”
From Clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease: Recommendations of the International Working Group (2021) · cites this paper as [33]
Cognitively unimpaired individuals can have biomarker evidence of both amyloid β and tau pathology but will often not develop clinical manifestations in their lifetime.
“For instance, cognitively unimpaired individuals can have biomarker evidence of both amyloid β and tau pathology but will often not develop clinical manifestations in their lifetime.”
From Clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease: Recommendations of the International Working Group (2021) · cites this paper as [33]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet
References 49 · Cited by 176
- Authors
- Brookmeyer, R., & Abdalla, N.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Corresponding author
- Brookmeyer, Ron
- ORCID
- Brookmeyer, Ron
- Venue
- Alzheimer's & Dementia
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-05-22
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 981-988
- ISSN
- 1552-5260 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-5279
- PMC
- PMC6097953
- OpenAlex
- W2804922289
- Cited by
- 176
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 12.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Alzheimer s & Dementia (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (R21AG055361)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Cancer-related cognitive impairment studies
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, dementia
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Dementia, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Risk, Biomarkers, Cognitive Dysfunction
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
