Projecting Long-Term Care Costs for Home and Community-Based Services in China from 2005 to 2050
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Objectives The aim of this study was to estimate and project the trend in long-term care (LTC) costs for home and community-based services as a percentage of gross domestic product in China between 2005 and 2050. Design Longitudinal. Setting and participants We used 61,249 observations from 37,702 adults age ≥65 years from waves 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2018 of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Surveys. Methods LTC costs for home and community-based services consisted of the monetary value of time spent on LTC and the direct LTC cost. We used the age-sex-residence-specific weights provided by the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Surveys to estimate the LTC costs from 2005 to 2018. We used a component-based model to project LTC costs, in which the 2-part model was used to estimate the average LTC costs and the multi-state Markov model approach was used to project the future population by age, sex, and disability state. Results The percentage of older adults with disabilities was projected to increase from 6.1% in 2005 to 7.5% in 2020 and 9.6% in 2050. The total LTC cost for home and community-based services were projected to increase from 0.3% of gross domestic product in 2005 to 0.7% in 2020 and to 6.4% in 2050. Conclusions and implications Policymakers in China should take urgent actions to delay the onset of disabilities among older adults, which would curb the increasing LTC costs and maintain the sustainability of the LTC policies.
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Jin et al projected that meeting the need for long-term dementia care in China by 2050 could cost as much as 6% of GDP.
“Jin et al100 projected the need for long-term dementia care in China forward to 2050 and found that meeting this need could cost as much as 6% of gross domestic product (GDP).”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [100]
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Zeng, Y., Chen, H., Wang, Z., & Land, K. C. (2015) · Journal of Aging and Health · doi:10.1177/0898264314552690 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
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Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century
Jamison, D. T., Summers, L. H., Chang, A. Y., Karlsson, O., Mao, W., Norheim, O. F., Ogbuoji, O., Schäferhoff, M., Watkins, D., Adeyi, O., et al. (2024) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)01439-9 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Jin, H., Su, Y., Ping, Y., Pickersgill, S., Chen, X., Liu, X., Watkins, D., Li, Y., Liu, H., & Wu, C.
- Affiliations
- Duke Kunshan University (CN)
- University of Washington (US)
- Yale University (US)
- Zhejiang University (CN)
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (US)
- Jiangsu University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Wu, Chenkai
- Venue
- Journal of the American Medical Directors Association
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-02
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 228-234
- ISSN
- 1525-8610 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10134410
- OpenAlex
- W4310852291
- Cited by
- 11
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 5
- FWCI
- 2.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of the American Medical Directors Association (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China
- National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC2000400)
- National Major Science and Technology Projects of China (2020YFC2005600)
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (72004201)
- National Institute on Aging (71490732, K01AG053408, P30AG021342, R01AG077529)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Geriatric Care and Nursing Homes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Global Health Care Issues
- Keywords
- long-term care costs, home and community-based services, older adults, disability prevalence, cost projections, gross domestic product, multi-state Markov model, Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, population aging, China
- MeSH terms
- Aged, China, Community Health Services, Disabled Persons, Persons with Disabilities, Health Status, Home Care Services, Humans, Long-Term Care
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