Is gold a safe haven? International evidence
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Fundamental analysis evaluates macroeconomic factors that drive medium- to long-term directional bias in forex and commodity markets.
“Fundamental analysis evaluates macroeconomic factors including central bank interest rate policies, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), GDP growth, and geopolitical conditions that drive medium- to long-term directional bias in forex and commodity markets (Baur & McDermott, 2010; Sarno & Schmeling, 2024).”
From The Role of Trader Psychology in Enhancing Forex Trading Profitability Through Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Risk Management at Wijaya Trading Community Indonesia (2026) · cites this paper as Baur & McDermott, 2010
The Estimation Results (pp. 15–17) examine gold’s relationship with stock markets, while the discussion on p. 15 notes an exchange-rate effect. Searches for fundamental analysis, interest-rate policy, NFP, GDP, and medium- to long-term directional bias found no passage in our copy addressing the attributed claim. (LLM, conf=0.75)
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Research works printed but not linked: 14
- Baur, D.G. and B.M. Lucey (2009). 'Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold', Financial Review , forthcoming
- Boyer, B.H., Kumagai, T. and K. Yuan (2006): 'How Do Crises Spread? Evidence from Accessible and Inaccessible Stock Indices', Journal of Finance , 61, 2, 957-1003
- Calvo, G. A. and E. G. Mendoza (2000).'Rational Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets', Journal of International Economics 51(1), 79-113.
- Capie, F., T. C. Mills, and G. Wood (2005). "Gold as a Hedge against the Dollar", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 15(4): 343-52.
- Dungey, M., Fry, R., Martin, V. and B. Gonzalez-Hermosillo (2004): 'Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers , 04/78, International Monetary Fund
- Faugere, C. and J. Van Erlach (2006). 'The Price of Gold: A Global Required Yield Theory', Journal of Investing 14(1), 99-111.
- Forbes, K. and R. Rigobon (2002). 'No Contagion, Only Interdependence', The Journal of Finance 57, 5, 2223-2261
- Gulko, L. (2002). "Decoupling: If the U.S. Treasury Repays Its Debt, What Then?" Journal of Portfolio Management 28(3): 59-66.
- Hartmann, P., S. Straetmans and C.G. de Vries (2004). "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods", Review of Economics and Statistics 86(1): 313-26.
- Kaul, A. and S. Sapp (2006). "Y2K fears and safe haven trading of the U.S. dollar", Journal of International Money and Finance 25(5), 760-779
- Lucey, B., E. Tully and V. Poti (2006). "International portfolio formation, skewness and the role of gold", Frontiers in Finance and Economics 3(1): 1-17.
- McCown, J.R. and J.R. Zimmerman (2006). 'Is Gold a Zero-Beta Asset? Analysis of the Investment Potential of Precious Metals', Working Paper Series . Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=920496.
- Sherman, E. (1982). "Gold : A Conservative, Prudent Diversifier", Journal of Portfolio Management (Spring): 21-27.
- Upper, C. (2000). 'How Safe was the "Safe Haven"?: Financial Market Liquidity During the 1998 Turbulences', Deutsche Bundesbank Working Paper No. 1/00. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=219132.
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“For instance, Bitcoin should be negatively correlated to the stock market to exhibit safe haven and hedge properties according to the framework proposed (Baur and McDermott 2009).”
Havidz, S. A. H., Santoso, M. D., Alexander, T., & Caroline, C. (2024) · Asian Journal of Accounting Research · doi:10.1108/ajar-10-2023-0334 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Sumadi, S., Susbiyani, A., & Maharani, A. (2026) · Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis · doi:10.70716/emis.v4i2.522
- Authors
- Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K.
- Affiliations
- University of Technology Sydney (AU)
- Trinity College Dublin (IE)
- Corresponding author
- Baur, Dirk G.
- Venue
- Journal of Banking & Finance
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-08
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 1886-1898
- ISSN
- 0378-4266 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3121940608
- Cited by
- 1,947
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 169 · 2025: 170 · 2024: 178 · 2023: 207 · 2022: 206 · 2021: 206 · 2020: 149 · 2019: 127 · 2018: 99 · 2017: 82 · 2016: 98 · 2015: 76 · 2014: 65 · 2013: 52 · 2012: 33
- FWCI
- 86.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Banking & Finance (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion)
- UTS ePRESS (University of Technology Sydney) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Global Financial Crisis and Policies
- Keywords
- gold, safe haven, hedging, stock market, emerging markets, financial crisis, global financial system, BRIC countries, developed markets
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