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Cited by 48Palliative Care and End-of-Life IssuesHealthcare Operations and Scheduling OptimizationForecasting Techniques and Applications

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 47 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Machine learning-based demand forecasting in cancer palliative care home hospitalization

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Soltani, Marzieh, Farahmand, Mohammad, Pourghaderi, Ahmad Reza·2022·Journal of Biomedical Informatics
DOI 10.1016/j.jbi.2022.104075
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Abstract

Objective To develop an effective Management Information System (MIS) that is empowered by predictive models that can forecast the demand of end-stage cancer home hospitalized patients in individual and population levels, and help palliative care service systems operate smoothly where the demand is highly fluctuating, resources are limited, expensive, and hardly adjustable in a short time, and the backlog and shortage costs are high.Method Inspired by real problems faced by a palliative care center providing various medical, nursing, psychological, and social services in a home-based setting, two Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based deep learning models are proposed for demand forecasting at both individual and population levels. The individual-level model can predict the type and time of the next service required for a specific patient with a given demographic and health profile, and the population-level model helps with the prediction of next week's demand for various services in a center supporting a specific patient population. Predicted demand informs on optimal resource and operations plan through a well designed MIS.Results Experiments were conducted on a dataset consisting of more than 4000 cancer patients with a Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) of 40 and below discharged from hospital to home under a national palliative care center's home hospitalization service in Iran from September 2012 to July 2019. The models outperformed conventional time-series forecasting methods where applicable. Results indicate that the proposed models were capable of forecasting patients' demand with astonishing performances both individually and on larger scales.Conclusion Intelligent demand forecasting can help palliative care home hospitalization systems to overcome the challenge of progressive demand growth when a considerable portion of patients are approaching death, followed by a sudden drop in demand when those patients pass away. It helps to improve resource utilization and quality of care concurrently.

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  1. A. Vaswani, N. Shazeer, N. Parmar, J. Uszkoreit, L. Jones, A.N. Gomez, Ł. Kaiser, and I. Polosukhin, “Attention is all you need,” in Advances in neural information processing systems, 2017, pp. 5998–6008.

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Metadata

Authors
Soltani, M., Farahmand, M., & Pourghaderi, A. R.
Affiliations
  • Isfahan University of Technology (IR)
  • SingHealth (SG)
Corresponding author
Pourghaderi, Ahmad Reza
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Biomedical Informatics
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2022-06
Volume
130
Pages
104075
ISSN
1532-0464 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.jbi.2022.104075
OpenAlex
W4224986685
Cited by
48
References
47
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 3
FWCI
8.62
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Biomedical Informatics (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Palliative Care and End-of-Life Issues
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Healthcare Operations and Scheduling Optimization
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Keywords
demand forecasting, palliative care, home hospitalization, terminal cancer, long short-term memory, management information systems, resource planning, Palliative Performance Scale, hospital discharge, resource utilization (health care)
MeSH terms
Machine Learning, Forecasting, Home Care Services, Hospitalization, Humans, Neoplasms, Palliative Care

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