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Global incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 63 studies and 1,201,807 persons
Abstract
Background & aims The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing. We aimed to estimate the pooled global NAFLD incidence.Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults without NAFLD at baseline to evaluate the global incidence of ultrasound-diagnosed NAFLD.Results A total of 63 eligible studies (1,201,807 persons) were analyzed. Studies were from Mainland China/Hong Kong (n = 26), South Korea (n = 22), Japan (n = 14), other (n = 2, Sri Lanka, Israel); 63.8% were clinical center studies; median study year 2000 to 2016; 87% were good quality. Among the 1,201,807 persons at risk, 242,568 persons developed NAFLD, with an incidence rate of 4,612.8 (95% CI 3,931.5-5,294.2) per 100,000 person-years and no statistically significant differences by study sample size (p = 0.90) or study setting (p = 0.055). Males had higher incidence vs. females (5,943.8 vs. 3,671.7, p = 0.0013). Both the obese (vs. non-obese) and the overweight/obese groups (vs. normal weight) were about threefold more likely to develop NAFLD (8,669.6 vs. 2,963.9 and 8,416.6 vs. 3,358.2, respectively) (both p <0.0001). Smokers had higher incidence than non-smokers (8,043.2 vs. 4,689.7, p = 0.046). By meta-regression, adjusting for study year, study setting, and study location, study period of 2010 or after and study setting were associated with increased incidence (p = 0.010 and p = 0.055, respectively). By country, China had a higher NAFLD incidence compared to non-China regions (p = 0.012) and Japan a lower incidence compared to non-Japan regions (p = 0.005).Conclusions NAFLD incidence is increasing with a current estimate of 4,613 new cases per 100,000 person-years. Males and overweight/obese individuals had significantly higher incidence rates compared to females and those of normal weight. Public health interventions for prevention of NAFLD are needed with a special emphasis on males, overweight/obese individuals, and higher risk regions.Impact and implications Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects approximately 30% of people worldwide and appears to be increasing, but data to estimate the incidence rate are limited. In this meta-analytic study of over 1.2 million people, we estimated an incidence rate of NAFLD of 46.13 per 1,000 person-years with significant differences by sex, BMI, geography, and time-period. As treatment options for NAFLD remain limited, prevention of NAFLD should remain the focus of public health strategies. Studies such as these can help policy makers in determining which and whether their interventions are impactful.
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“The estimated global prevalence of MASLD in the general population has risen from 25% in 2016 12 to currently more than 30%, and the incidence is continually increasing. 12 -14”
From EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). (2024) · cites this paper as [14]
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Muscle Strength and Cardiovascular Health in MASLD: A Prospective Study
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PGC-1α protects against MASH via Tim23-dependent inhibition of DRP1-mediated ferroptosis
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“MASLD is currently the most prevalent chronic liver disease globally, with a prevalence of over 30% (5) and incidence rates continuing to rise, particularly in males and overweight/obese individuals (6).”
Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease
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“[5] NAFLD may progress to cirrhosis and increase the likelihood of hepatocellular cancer, and gut microbiota dysbiosis plays a critical role in this process by disrupting the gut–liver axis and immune system function.”
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“%) and affects up to 70% of T2DM patients, adding to their health burden [3–5].”
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Survey of physicians' knowledge about pediatric nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in China
Gao, X. Y., Yang, Y. F., Li, L., Xing, Y. F., Wang, Y. X., Li, X. Y., Yang, S., Wang, M. Y., Fan, J., & Wang, H. (2024) · Journal of Digestive Diseases · doi:10.1111/1751-2980.13297 · Cited by 3
Carmiel-Haggai, M., Daood, R., Fassan, F., Jeries, H., Dror-Zur, D., Omar, M., Watad, ., Patalon, T., & Naffaa, M. E. (2025) · Joint Bone Spine · doi:10.1016/j.jbspin.2025.105917 · Cited by 3
Lee, C.-H., Kang, M.-G., Oh, S., Gwak, I. S., Shen, C., Oh, H., Park, Y. R., Kim, J. S., & Park, J. H. (2025) · Clinics And Research in Hepatology and Gastroenterology · doi:10.1016/j.clinre.2025.102612 · Cited by 3
Identification of CDKN1A as a potential key risk factor in MASLD progression
Deng, L., Deng, J., Luo, L., Yang, H., Sun, M., Yucheng, G., Liu, Q., Ngowi, E. E., Zhou, Y., Zhang, R., et al. (2025) · The FASEB Journal · doi:10.1096/fj.202402942r · Cited by 2
“2,3 Excessive accumulation of fatty acids in the liver, or disruptions in the metabolic pathways of fatty acids, leads to the production of lipotoxic substances, which cause cell damage, inflammation, programmed cell death, and fibrotic remodeling.”
Reference ranges for liver function tests in pregnancy controlling for maternal characteristics
Judah, H., Rigby, R. A., Stasinopoulos, M. D., Pateras, K., Rahim, M. N., Heneghan, M. A., Nicolaides, K. H., & Kametas, N. A. (2025) · American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1016/j.ajog.2025.06.056 · Cited by 2
Ge, Q., Lin, Y., Wang, M., Zhu, J., Zhang, Q., Wang, J., Yang, Y., Zhangdi, H., Guo, Y., Wang, S., et al. (2025) · Food Science & Nutrition · doi:10.1002/fsn3.70627 · Cited by 2
Fei, H., Lv, K., Xu, J., Hao, H., Quan, Y., Shi, J., & Zhang, W. (2025) · Metabolic Syndrome and Related Disorders · doi:10.1177/15578518251363914 · Cited by 2
Xu, Q., He, N., Tian, Y., Wu, Z., Wang, H., Liu, B., Yang, Z., Zhang, H., Luo, Q., Zhong, Y., et al. (2025) · Journal of Applied Microbiology · doi:10.1093/jambio/lxaf271 · Cited by 2
Met-ALD and ALD- Does Differentiating These Impact Management and Clinical Outcomes?
Elmustafa, F., Tyagi, M., Kaur, H., Blaney, H. L., Xie, C., Jalil, S., & Singal, A. K. (2025) · Current Hepatology Reports · doi:10.1007/s11901-025-00712-8 · Cited by 3
Liang, Q., Hu, H., Chen, X., Yang, S., Zhang, Y., Wu, Y., Wang, X., & Chen, H. (2025) · Diabetes Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity · doi:10.2147/dmso.s556539 · Cited by 2
“4,8 The poor prognosis of NAFLD is primarily associated with cardiovascular diseases and non-liver malignancies.”
Hu, M.-J., Dong, X., Wang, X., Yao, B., Fu, Y., Su, D., Li, L., Zhang, Y., & Chu, X.-M. (2025) · Experimental Gerontology · doi:10.1016/j.exger.2025.112998 · Cited by 2
Mohamadi, B., Ostadan, M. T., Shokri, S., Bakhtiyari, A., Rasooli, R., Sadighara, P., & Bekheir, S. A. (2026) · Toxicology Reports · doi:10.1016/j.toxrep.2026.102216 · Cited by 4
“In this situation, global data indicate a significant prevalence of 38 % and an annual incidence of 4613 cases per 100,000 people [40].”
Comparison of patients with HCC with and without MASLD after surgical resection
Ho, C.-J., Lei, H.-J., Ho, C.-T., Chau, G., Chou, S., Tan, E. C., Lee, P., Huang, Y., Yang, Y.-Y., Huo, T., et al. (2026) · JHEP Reports · doi:10.1016/j.jhepr.2026.101768 · Cited by 2
“7,8 It is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) coexisting with at least one cardiometabolic risk factor (CMRF), including overweight or obesity, dysglycemia or type 2 diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and hypertension.”
Prevalence of MASLD and fibrosis in Turkey: Results from a multicenter study of at-risk populations
Us, G. D., Innocenti, F., Koc, Ö. M., Yumuk, V., Öztürk, Z., & Koek, G. H. (2026) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0341214 · Cited by 2
Chen, D., Yan, L., Wu, T., Zhao, J., Xu, X., Xu, W., Zhang, H., & Xiao, M. (2026) · Frontiers in Endocrinology · doi:10.3389/fendo.2026.1819756 · Cited by 2
“Currently, obesity is widely recognized as one of the major causative factors of MASLD (14).”
Wan, X., Liu, X., Meng, D., Wang, A., Song, X., Huang, Y., Zhang, F., Lin, X., Yao, J., Zheng, Y., et al. (2026) · Journal of Advanced Research · doi:10.1016/j.jare.2026.04.059 · Cited by 2
Hao, X., He, H., Tao, L., Zhao, W., & Wang, P. (2024) · BMC Gastroenterology · doi:10.1186/s12876-024-03229-4 · Cited by 2
“The incidence of 46.13 new MAFLD cases per 1,000 person-years has been reported on a global scale [26].”
BackgroundInfluentialRathnayake, D. W., Sooriyaarachchi, P., Niriella, M. A., Ediriweera, D. S., & Perera, J. A. (2024) · Advances in Integrative Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.aimed.2024.08.016 · Cited by 2
Yang, J., Huang, L., Ren, T. Y., Zeng, J., Shi, Y. W., & Fan, J. (2024) · Journal of Digestive Diseases · doi:10.1111/1751-2980.13311 · Cited by 2
Yuan, F., Fang, D., Xu, H., Nie, Y., Cai, W., & Gu, T. (2024) · Diabetes & Metabolism · doi:10.1016/j.diabet.2024.101588 · Cited by 2
Tiwari, K., Kumar, B., Tiwari, A., Dhamija, P., Vardhan, G., Dehade, A., & Kumar, V. (2025) · Cureus · doi:10.7759/cureus.79437 · Cited by 2
“Recognizing MASLD as a significant non-communicable disease, the WHO is crucial for developing tailored policies to address its multifaceted impact on health, economics, and patient well-being, underscoring the urgent need for collective action [7,8].”
Xu, X., Li, J., Fu, Y., Li, J., Shen, W., Tan, X. W., Wang, N., Wang, B., & Lu, Y. (2025) · Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism · doi:10.1111/dom.16533 · Cited by 2
Yao, M., Xing, Y.-F., Liu, S.-H., Peng, Y., Yang, S.-H., Chen, J., Zhao, J., & Wang, H. (2025) · World Journal of Gastroenterology · doi:10.3748/wjg.v31.i28.108321 · Cited by 2
“When only the routine examination indices of community health centers were included, ten variables were selected (Supplementary Table 10), with no strong multicollinearity being observed among them (Supplementary Table 11).”
Martínez, G., & Ángel, M. (2012) · Congreso de los Diputados eBooks · Cited by 2
Zhang, Q., Zhao, W., Sun, Z., Dong, X., Zhu, L., Zhang, Z., Chen, X., Hu, Y., Du, M., Li, J., et al. (2024) · Frigid Zone Medicine · doi:10.2478/fzm-2024-0002 · Cited by 1
Jin, Y., Liu, Q., Wang, Y., Wang, B., An, J., Chen, Q., Wang, T., & Shang, J. (2024) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms251910764 · Cited by 1
“Its prevalence is estimated to be up to 30% and is continuously increasing [2,3].”
BackgroundYang, H., Zhang, C., Kim, W., Shi, M., Kılıçlıoğlu, M., Bayram, C., Bolar, I., Tozlu, Ö. Ö., Baba, C., Yuksel, N., et al. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.98427.3 · Cited by 8
Zhang, R., Weng, G., Wang, J., Lin, Y.-Y., Chen, Q., Ou, Y., & Yu, J. (2025) · European Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology · doi:10.1097/meg.0000000000002959 · Cited by 1
“The global prevalence of NAFLD is as high as approximately 30.05% [2].”
InfluentialSun, J., Lee, H. J., Lee, H. J., Park, T. Y., Heo, E. Y., Kim, D. K., & Lee, H. W. (2025) · Respiratory Medicine and Research · doi:10.1016/j.resmer.2025.101171 · Cited by 1
Research progress on probiotics and prebiotics in the treatment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease
Bai, F.-P., Tang, J., Liao, X., & Jiang, Z.-X. (2025) · journal of nutritional oncology · doi:10.1097/jn9.0000000000000050 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Le, M. H., Le, D. M., Baez, T. C., Wu, Y., Ito, T., Lee, E. Y., Lee, K., Stave, C. D., Henry, L., Barnett, S. D., Cheung, R., & Nguyen, M. H.
- Affiliations
- University of Vermont (US)
- Burrell College of Osteopathic Medicine (US)
- Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (CN)
- Nagoya University (JP)
- Stanford Medicine (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- VA Palo Alto Health Care System (US)
- Corresponding author
- Nguyen, Mindie H.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Hepatology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-08
- Volume
- 79
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 287-295
- ISSN
- 0168-8278 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4362719751
- Cited by
- 303
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 71 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 98 · 2023: 35
- FWCI
- 11.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Hepatology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hepatology › Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects
- Keywords
- NAFLD incidence, global prevalence, ultrasonography, obesity, overweight, smoking, sex differences, China, South Korea, Japan, cohort studies, risk factors, study quality bias, study design bias, publication bias
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Female, Humans, Male, Obesity, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Overweight, Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
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