The heterogeneous and regressive consequences of COVID-19: evidence from high quality panel data
Open accessAbstract
Using new data from the first two waves of the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study collected in April and in May 2020 in the UK, we study the labour market shocks that individuals experienced in the first wave of the pandemic, and the steps they and their households took to cope with those shocks. Understanding Society is based on probability samples and the Covid-19 Study is constructed carefully to support valid population inferences. The Covid-19 Study collected novel data on the mitigation strategies that individuals and households employ. Further, prior observation of respondents in the panel allows us to characterize regressivity with respect to pre-pandemic economic positions. Our key findings are that those with precarious employment, aged under 30 and from minority ethnic groups faced the biggest labour market shocks. Almost 50% of individuals have experienced declines in household earnings of at least 10%, but declines are most severe in the bottom pre-pandemic income quintiles. Methods of mitigation vary substantially across groups: borrowing and transfers from family and friends are most prevalent among those most in need.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an economic recession, a contraction in foreign trade and international investment, and a reduction in fiscal sources.
“the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an economic recession, a contraction in foreign trade and international investment, and a reduction in fiscal sources (Crossley et al., 2021; Ginsburgh et al., 2021; Wildman, 2021)”
From COVID-19 pandemic and adolescent mental health in China: Micro evidence and socioeconomic mechanisms (2022) · cites this paper as Crossley et al., 2021
The Introduction reports a substantial contraction in UK economic activity during the first wave of COVID-19, supporting the recession component. The cited passages and searches for foreign trade, international investment, and fiscal revenue do not support the claimed contractions in those areas. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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References 28 · Cited by 179
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- University of Essex Institute for Social and Economic Research, NatCen Social Research, and Kantar Public, n.d. Understanding Society: Waves 1–9, 2009–2018 and Harmonised BHPS: Waves 1–18, 1991–2009. [data collection]. 12th Edition.
- Authors
- Crossley, T. F., Fisher, P., & Low, H.
- Affiliations
- European University Institute (IT)
- University of Essex (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Low, Hamish
- Venue
- Journal of Public Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-01
- Volume
- 193
- Pages
- 104334
- ISSN
- 0047-2727 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7666552
- OpenAlex
- W3101818020
- Cited by
- 179
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 37 · 2020: 3
- FWCI
- 28.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Public Economics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Open Access at Essex (University of Essex) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Cadmus - EUI Research Repository (European University Institute) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Funders
- University of Essex
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/K005146/1, ES/N00812X/1, ES/S012486/1, ES/T002611/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Employment and Welfare Studies
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, labor market shocks, household earnings, precarious employment, young workers, ethnic minorities, income inequality, coping strategies, borrowing, informal transfers
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