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A methodology to model causal relationships on offshore safety assessment focusing on human and organizational factors
Abstract
Introduction Focusing on people and organizations, this paper aims to contribute to offshore safety assessment by proposing a methodology to model causal relationships. Method The methodology is proposed in a general sense that it will be capable of accommodating modeling of multiple risk factors considered in offshore operations and will have the ability to deal with different types of data that may come from different resources. Reason's "Swiss cheese" model is used to form a generic offshore safety assessment framework, and Bayesian Network (BN) is tailored to fit into the framework to construct a causal relationship model. The proposed framework uses a five-level-structure model to address latent failures within the causal sequence of events. The five levels include Root causes level, Trigger events level, Incidents level, Accidents level, and Consequences level. To analyze and model a specified offshore installation safety, a BN model was established following the guideline of the proposed five-level framework. A range of events was specified, and the related prior and conditional probabilities regarding the BN model were assigned based on the inherent characteristics of each event. Results This paper shows that Reason's "Swiss cheese" model and BN can be jointly used in offshore safety assessment. On the one hand, the five-level conceptual model is enhanced by BNs that are capable of providing graphical demonstration of inter-relationships as well as calculating numeric…
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From A BN driven FMEA approach to assess maritime cybersecurity risks (2023) · cites this paper as Ren et al., 2008
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A BN driven FMEA approach to assess maritime cybersecurity risks
Park, C., Kontovas, C., Yang, Z., & Chang, C.-H. (2023) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106480 · Cited by 98
Metadata
- Authors
- Ren, J., Jenkinson, I., Wang, J., Xu, D. L., & Yang, J. B.
- Affiliations
- Liverpool John Moores University (GB)
- University of Manchester (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Wang, J.
- Venue
- Journal of Safety Research
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2008
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 87-100
- ISSN
- 0022-4375 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2059272990
- Cited by
- 189
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 19.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Safety Research (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (GR/S85498/01, GR/S90461/01, GR/S85504/01)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Risk and Safety Analysis
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Occupational Health and Safety Research
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Maritime Navigation and Safety
- Keywords
- human and organizational factors, Bayesian networks, Swiss cheese model, accident sequence analysis, latent failures, collision risk, FPSO, risk factors
- MeSH terms
- Accidents, Occupational, Bayes Theorem, Environment, Humans, Ergonomics, Occupational Diseases, Oceans and Seas, Research, Organizational Culture, Occupational Health, Models, Organizational, Safety Management, Risk Assessment
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