Distribution of Marburg virus in Africa: An evolutionary approach

Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the origin and geographical dispersion of Marburg virus, the first member of the Filoviridae family to be discovered. Seventy-three complete genome sequences of Marburg virus isolated from animals and humans were retrieved from public databases and analysed using a Bayesian phylogeographical framework. The phylogenetic tree of the Marburg virus data set showed two significant evolutionary lineages: Ravn virus (RAVV) and Marburg virus (MARV). MARV divided into two main clades; clade A included isolates from Uganda (five from the European epidemic in 1967), Kenya (1980) and Angola (from the epidemic of 2004-2005); clade B included most of the isolates obtained during the 1999-2000 epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and a group of Ugandan isolates obtained in 2007-2009. The estimated mean evolutionary rate of the whole genome was 3.3×10(-4) substitutions/site/year (credibility interval 2.0-4.8). The MARV strain had a mean root time of the most recent common ancestor of 177.9years ago (YA) (95% highest posterior density 87-284), thus indicating that it probably originated in the mid-XIX century, whereas the RAVV strain had a later origin dating back to a mean 33.8 YA. The most probable location of the MARV ancestor was Uganda (state posterior probability, spp=0.41), whereas that of the RAVV ancestor was Kenya (spp=0.71). There were significant migration rates from Uganda to the DRC (Bayes Factor, BF=42.0) and in the opposite direction (BF=5.7). Our data suggest that Uganda may have been the cradle of Marburg virus in Africa.