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Predicting brain age with deep learning from raw imaging data results in a reliable and heritable biomarker
Open accessAbstract
&NA; Machine learning analysis of neuroimaging data can accurately predict chronological age in healthy people. Deviations from healthy brain ageing have been associated with cognitive impairment and disease. Here we sought to further establish the credentials of ‘brain‐predicted age’ as a biomarker of individual differences in the brain ageing process, using a predictive modelling approach based on deep learning, and specifically convolutional neural networks (CNN), and applied to both pre‐processed and raw T1‐weighted MRI data. Firstly, we aimed to demonstrate the accuracy of CNN brain‐predicted age using a large dataset of healthy adults (N = 2001). Next, we sought to establish the heritability of brain‐predicted age using a sample of monozygotic and dizygotic female twins (N = 62). Thirdly, we examined the test‐retest and multi‐centre reliability of brain‐predicted age using two samples (within‐scanner N = 20; between‐scanner N = 11). CNN brain‐predicted ages were generated and compared to a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach, on all datasets. Input data were grey matter (GM) or white matter (WM) volumetric maps generated by Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) or raw data. CNN accurately predicted chronological age using GM (correlation between brain‐predicted age and chronological age r = 0.96, mean absolute error [MAE] = 4.16 years) and raw (r = 0.94, MAE = 4.65 years) data. This was comparable to GPR brain‐predicted age using GM data (r = 0.95, MAE = 4.66 years). Brain‐predicted age was a heritable phenotype for all models and input data (h2 ≥ 0.5). Brain‐predicted age showed high test‐retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.90–0.99). Multi‐centre reliability was more variable within high ICCs for GM (0.83–0.96) and poor‐moderate levels for WM and raw data (0.51–0.77). Brain‐predicted age represents an accurate, highly reliable and genetically‐influenced phenotype, that has potential to be used as a biomarker of brain ageing. Moreover, age predictions can be accurately generated on raw T1‐MRI data, substantially reducing computation time for novel data, bringing the process closer to giving real‐time information on brain health in clinical settings. HighlightsChronological age can be accurately predicted using convolutional neural networks.Age predicted is accurate even using raw structural neuroimaging data.Brain‐predicted age can be generated in a clinically applicable timeframe.Brain‐predicted age is significantly heritable.Brain‐predicted age is highly reliable, both within and between scanners.
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Self-citationApplication and Construction of Deep Learning Networks in Medical Imaging
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Self-citationPromises and pitfalls of deep neural networks in neuroimaging-based psychiatric research
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ResultInfluentialThe Speed of Development of Adolescent Brain Age Depends on Sex and Is Genetically Determined
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BackgroundResultIndividual variation underlying brain age estimates in typical development
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Age-Related Alterations in DTI Metrics in the Human Brain—Consequences for Age Correction
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“The so-called “brain age” of a subject, estimated by structural properties, often differs from the actual chronological age (Franke et al., 2010; Cole et al., 2017; Smith et al., 2019).”
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BackgroundAge-Net: An MRI-Based Iterative Framework for Brain Biological Age Estimation
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“For example, those genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of PAD may yield misleading sequence variants [11, 12].”
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Deep learning in systems medicine
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“an accurate biomarker of chronological age using eye cornea images [107] and also applied in neuroimaging to identify biomarkers of brain aging using CNNs [108].”
MethodInfluentialLong-term Anabolic–Androgenic Steroid Use Is Associated With Deviant Brain Aging
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“The difference between the predicted and chronological age, termed the brain age gap (BAG), serves as a surrogate marker of individual brain health and individual differences in brain maturation and aging (49, 50).”
Brain structure ages—A new biomarker for multi‐disease classification
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“Recent studies show the capacity of deep learning algorithms in the brain age estimation task based on sMRI with an MAE ranging from 1.96 to 4.16 years (Armanious et al., 2021; Bermudez et al., 2019; Bintsi et al., 2020; Cole et al., 2017; Jonsson et al., 2019).”
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“Here, we will focus on the most recent and accurate developments, which use structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data (5, 6, 23, 27, 28, 31, 32).”
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“37 Moreover, since T1-weighted MRI has been validated far more extensively, 9 our results can be readily compared with most of the brain age literature.”
Self-citation“Brain age” predicts disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis
Brier, M. R., Li, Z., Ly, M. J., Karim, H. T., Liang, L., Du, W., McCarthy, J. E., Cross, A. H., Benzinger, T. L. S., Naismith, R. T., et al. (2023) · Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology · doi:10.1002/acn3.51782 · Cited by 49
Genetic architecture of brain age and its causal relations with brain and mental disorders
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“Twin-based heritability for BAG has been estimated to be as high as 0.66 [17], and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based heritability estimates are also relatively high — around 0.2 [6, 18].”
BackgroundInfluentialExcess brain age in the sleep electroencephalogram predicts reduced life expectancy
Paixão, L., Sikka, P., Sun, H., Jain, A., Hogan, J. S., THOMAS, R. J., & Westover, M. B. (2019) · Neurobiology of Aging · doi:10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2019.12.015 · Cited by 49
“Cole (2017) and Cole et al. (2017b) further found that raw T1-weighted MRI data using machine learning methods can function as a brain aging biomarker.”
BackgroundTunç, B., Yankowitz, L., Parker, D., Alappatt, J. A., Pandey, J., Schultz, R., & Verma, R. (2019) · Molecular Autism · doi:10.1186/s13229-019-0301-5 · Cited by 47
“Brain age models, while limiting region-specific interpretations, use multivariate machine learning techniques to better capture complex interactions between brain regions during development [42, 43], as well as the interplay between different modalities such as anatomical and diffusion metrics.”
BackgroundPopulation modeling with machine learning can enhance measures of mental health
Dadi, K., Varoquaux, G. P., Houenou, J., Bzdok, D., Thirion, B., & Engemann, D. A. (2021) · GigaScience · doi:10.1093/gigascience/giab071 · Cited by 54
“Learning curves documented that the training split was sufficiently large for constructing stable prediction models Figure 1 – Figure supplement 1 with profiles of performance similar to latest benchmarks on model complexity in the UK Biobank [71].”
InfluentialYu, X. (2018) · Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) · doi:10.17632/ffkv2xj2m7.1 · Cited by 48
“…machine learning research (LeCun et al., 2015), which has a deep structure of arti fi cial neural networks with capable of processing very large-scale data, and has dramatically improved the modeling performance in many data analysis tasks (Zhao and Du, 2016; Farias et al., 2016; Cole et al., 2017).”
BackgroundAn automated machine learning approach to predict brain age from cortical anatomical measures
Dafflon, J., Pinaya, W. H. L., Turkheimer, F., Cole, J. H., Leech, R., Harris, M. A., Cox, S. R., Whalley, H. C., McIntosh, A. M., & Hellyer, P. J. (2020) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.25028 · Cited by 48
“A similar problem has been described and extensively studied in motion correction in resting state fMRI.”
MethodInfluentialSelf-citationHepp, T., Blum, D., Armanious, K., Schölkopf, B., Štern, D., Yang, B., & Gatidis, S. (2021) · Computerized Medical Imaging and Graphics · doi:10.1016/j.compmedimag.2021.101967 · Cited by 49
Investigating the impact of motion in the scanner on brain age predictions
Moqadam, R., Dadar, M., & Zeighami, Y. (2024) · Imaging Neuroscience · doi:10.1162/imag_a_00079 · Cited by 50
Lv, H., Zeng, N., Li, M., Sun, J., Wu, N., Xu, M., Chen, Q., Zhao, X., Chen, S., Liu, W., et al. (2024) · Health Data Science · doi:10.34133/hds.0087 · Cited by 46
Petersen, K. J., Metcalf, N. V., Cooley, S., Tomov, D., Vaida, F., Paul, R. H., & Ances, B. M. (2021) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciab169 · Cited by 46
“Brain Aging in HIV • cid 2021:73 (15 November) • 1819 predictive accuracy in training and testing [34].”
BackgroundUsman, O. L., & Muniyandi, R. C. (2020) · Symmetry · doi:10.3390/sym12050836 · Cited by 50
“Additionally, at the end, CNN usually has fully connected layers that compute the final output [44].”
BackgroundA deep learning model for brain age prediction using minimally preprocessed T1w images as input
Dartora, C. M., Marseglia, A., Mårtensson, G., Rukh, G., Dang, J., Muehlboeck, J., Wahlund, L., Moreno, R., Barroso, J., Ferreira, D., et al. (2024) · Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnagi.2023.1303036 · Cited by 46
Anatomical context improves deep learning on the brain age estimation task
Bermudez, C. L., Plassard, A. J., Chaganti, S., Huo, Y., Aboud, K. S., Cutting, L. E., Resnick, S. M., & Landman, B. A. (2019) · Magnetic Resonance Imaging · doi:10.1016/j.mri.2019.06.018 · Cited by 45
“Cole et. al proposed a convolutional deep neural network technique on raw T1w MRI images which showed an mean absolute error of 4.65 years in 2,001 healthy adults ages 18 to 90 years (13).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialImproving Individual Brain Age Prediction Using an Ensemble Deep Learning Framework
Kuo, C.-Y., Tai, T., Lee, P., Tseng, C.-W., Chen, C.-Y., Chen, L., Lee, C.-K., Chou, K., See, S. C. W., & Lin, C. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2021.626677 · Cited by 46
“Several DL-based studies have demonstrated the superior predictive performance of this approach using single imaging modalities as the input feature set for estimating individual brain age with minimal image preprocessing procedures and feature extraction steps (19, 21, 22).”
BackgroundMethodRadiomics-Derived Brain Age Predicts Functional Outcome After Acute Ischemic Stroke
Bretzner, M., Bonkhoff, A. K., Schirmer, M. D., Hong, S., Dalca, A. V., Donahue, K., Giese, A., Etherton, M. R., Rist, P. M., Nardin, M., et al. (2022) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.0000000000201596 · Cited by 44
Self-citationHong, G.-S., Jang, M., Kyung, S., Cho, K., Jeong, J., Lee, G. Y., Shin, K., Kim, K., Ryu, S. M., Seo, J. B., et al. (2023) · Korean Journal of Radiology · doi:10.3348/kjr.2023.0393 · Cited by 46
“The disparities between predicted and chronological ages may be attributed to the accumulation of age-related alterations in pathological circumstances [185-187] or protective factors in brain aging [188,189].”
BackgroundWeakly supervised object detection with 2D and 3D regression neural networks
Dubost, F., Adams, H. H. H., Yilmaz, P., Bortsova, G., van Tulder, G., Ikram, M. A., Niessen, W. J., Vernooij, M. W., & de Bruijne, M. (2020) · Medical Image Analysis · doi:10.1016/j.media.2020.101767 · Cited by 45
Dunås, T., Wåhlin, A., Nyberg, L. H., & Boraxbekk, C. (2021) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhab019 · Cited by 45
Geometric deep learning on brain shape predicts sex and age
Besson, P., Parrish, T. B., Katsaggelos, A. K., & Bandt, S. K. (2021) · Computerized Medical Imaging and Graphics · doi:10.1016/j.compmedimag.2021.101939 · Cited by 43
Couvy‐Duchesne, B., Faouzi, J., Martin, B., Thibeau–Sutre, E., Wild, A., Ansart, M., Durrleman, S., Dormont, D., Burgos, N., & Olivier Colliot, A. (2020) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2020.593336 · Cited by 47
“In addition, brain age (and PAD) has been shown to be heritable (17, 18), and recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have started shedding light on some of themolecular mechanisms responsible for brain aging (19, 20).”
BackgroundVoldsbekk, I., Barth, C., Maximov, I. I., Kaufmann, T., Beck, D., Richard, G., Moberget, T., Westlye, L. T., & de Lange, A. G. (2021) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.25553 · Cited by 45
Drobinin, V., Gestel, H. V., Helmick, C. A., Schmidt, M. H., Bowen, C. V., & Uher, R. (2021) · Biological Psychiatry Cognitive Neuroscience and Neuroimaging · doi:10.1016/j.bpsc.2021.09.004 · Cited by 47
Korbmacher, M., de Lange, A. G., van der Meer, D., Beck, D., Eikefjord, E., Lundervold, A., Andreassen, O. A., Westlye, L. T., & Maximov, I. I. (2023) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.26333 · Cited by 43
“The disparity between chronological age and predicted age, the so-called brain age gap (BAG), can be used as an indicator of various disorders and potentially general health status (Beck et al., 2022; Cole et al., 2017; Franke & Ten Gaser, 2019; Kaufmann et al., 2019; Leonardsen et al., 2021).”
BackgroundMethodPredicting Brain Age Based on Spatial and Temporal Features of Human Brain Functional Networks
Zhai, J., & Li, K. (2019) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2019.00062 · Cited by 40
Gong, W., Beckmann, C. F., Vedaldi, A., Smith, S. M., & Peng, H. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2021.627996 · Cited by 43
Stripelis, D., Thompson, P. M., & Ambite, J. L. (2022) · ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology · doi:10.1145/3524885 · Cited by 57
“We evaluate the protocols on the CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ExtendedMNIST By Class [9, 13] benchmark datasets with a federation consisting of 10 learners as well as on the BrainAge prediction task [14, 22, 28, 52, 66] with a federation of eight learners.”
MethodNeuroimaging-Based Brain Age Estimation: A Promising Personalized Biomarker in Neuropsychiatry
Sone, D., & Beheshti, I. (2022) · Journal of Personalized Medicine · doi:10.3390/jpm12111850 · Cited by 41
“In 2017, James Cole and his peers developed the first deep learning-based brain-age estimation framework, with a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) that uses 3D gray matter and 3D white matter intensity maps as the input data [11].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialJoo, Y., Namgung, E., Jeong, H. S., Kang, I., Kim, J., Oh, S., Lyoo, I. K., Yoon, S. J., & Hwang, J. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-49514-2 · Cited by 43
“While their study 15 did not specify the exact training duration, the application of Gaussian process regression (GPR) is known to reduce computational time compared to certain other deep learning algorithms with a similar level of performance.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialImproved Brain Age Estimation With Slice-Based Set Networks
Gupta, U., Lam, P., Steeg, G. V., & Thompson, P. M. (2021) · IEEE International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging (ISBI) · doi:10.1109/isbi48211.2021.9434081 · Cited by 41
“3D-CNN: Most conventional deep learning approaches for BrainAGE estimation use 3D-CNNs [4, 5].”
MethodSex differences in predictors and regional patterns of brain age gap estimates
Sanford, N., Ge, R., Antoniades, M., Modabbernia, A., Haas, S. S., Whalley, H. C., Galea, L. A. M., Popescu, S. G., Cole, J. H., & Frangou, S. (2022) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.25983 · Cited by 42
“G-brainAGE is a global index of age-related changes across the brain (Cole et al., 2017; Cole & Franke, 2017; Franke et al., 2010) while L-brainAGE informs about regional age-related brain changes (Popescu et al., 2021).”
Self-citationAnatomical context protects deep learning from adversarial perturbations in medical imaging
Li, Y., Zhang, H., Bermudez, C. L., Chen, Y., Landman, B. A., & Vorobeychik, Y. (2019) · Neurocomputing · doi:10.1016/j.neucom.2019.10.085 · Cited by 41
“…photographs with great accuracy, while Bejnordi et al. [3] were able to accurately detect lymph node metastasis in patients with breast cancer, and Cole et al. [4] used deep learning to produce a more accurate brain age prediction, which has been shown to correlate with neurodegenerative diseases.”
Correlation Constraints for Regression Models: Controlling Bias in Brain Age Prediction
Treder, M. S., Shock, J. P., Stein, D. J., du Plessis, S. S., Seedat, S., & Tsvetanov, K. A. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2021.615754 · Cited by 41
“Neuroimaging Data Neuroimaging data supplied within the Predictive Analytics Competition were fully pre-processed T1-weighted MRI scans from 2,640 training set and 660 validation set subjects as described previously (2).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialAssociations between alcohol use and accelerated biological ageing
Bøstrand, S. M. K., Vaher, K., de Nooij, L., Harris, M. A., Cole, J. H., Cox, S. R., Marioni, R. E., McCartney, D. L., Walker, R. M., McIntosh, A. M., et al. (2021) · Addiction Biology · doi:10.1111/adb.13100 · Cited by 45
“This could account for some of the variation in susceptibility to age-related disease and suggests that measures of biological ageing may be more clinically relevant than chronological age (10,11).”
Self-citationMultimodal and multicontrast image fusion via deep generative models
Dimitri, G. M., Spasov, S., Duggento, A., Passamonti, L., Lió, P., & Toschi, N. (2022) · Information Fusion · doi:10.1016/j.inffus.2022.07.017 · Cited by 41
EEG-based image classification via a region-level stacked bi-directional deep learning framework
Fares, A. H., Zhong, S.-H., & Jiang, J. (2019) · BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making · doi:10.1186/s12911-019-0967-9 · Cited by 38
MRI-based biomarkers of accelerated aging and dementia risk in midlife: how close are we?
Elliott, M. L. (2020) · Ageing Research Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.arr.2020.101075 · Cited by 39
Deep learning model for predicting gestational age after the first trimester using fetal MRI
Kojita, Y., Matsuo, H., Kanda, T., Nishio, M., Sofue, K., Nogami, M., Kono, A. K., Hori, M., & Murakami, T. (2021) · European Radiology · doi:10.1007/s00330-021-07915-9 · Cited by 39
“CNNs have been shown to be able to accurately predict the age of adult subjects from brain MRI [13, 14].”
BackgroundSullivan, E. V., & Adolf Pfefferbaum, A. (2022) · Alcohol · doi:10.1016/j.alcohol.2022.06.002 · Cited by 44
Identification of Tumor-Specific MRI Biomarkers Using Machine Learning (ML)
Hajjo, R., Sabbah, D. A., Bardaweel, S. K., & Tropsha, A. (2021) · Diagnostics · doi:10.3390/diagnostics11050742 · Cited by 38
“Exploiting quantitative data embedded in images along with demanding protocols for accession and scoring linked with machine learning algorithms have been applied in neurodegenerative disease and treatment protocol [174,175].”
Vasta, R., Cerasa, A., Sarica, A., Bartolini, E., Martino, I., Mari, F., Metitieri, T. T., Quattrone, A., Gambardella, A., Guerrini, R., et al. (2018) · Epilepsy & Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.yebeh.2018.09.008 · Cited by 38
Ning, K., Duffy, B. A., Franklin, M., Matloff, W. J., Zhao, L., Arzouni, N., Sun, F., & Toga, A. W. (2021) · Neurobiology of Aging · doi:10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2021.03.014 · Cited by 38
Brain age estimation reveals older adults’ accelerated senescence after traumatic brain injury
Amgalan, A., Maher, A. S., Ghosh, S., Chui, H. C., Bogdan, P., & Andrei Irimia, A. (2022) · GeroScience · doi:10.1007/s11357-022-00597-1 · Cited by 38
“BA estimation procedures [10], and (C) the ability to predict mortality from BA estimates [7].”
MethodIs musical engagement enough to keep the brain young?
Matziorinis, A. M., Gaser, C., & Koelsch, S. (2022) · Brain Structure and Function · doi:10.1007/s00429-022-02602-x · Cited by 38
Metadata
- Authors
- Cole, J. H., Poudel, R. P. K., Tsagkrasoulis, D., Caan, M. W. A., Steves, C., Spector, T. D., & Montana, G.
- Affiliations
- Imperial College London (GB)
- King's College London (GB)
- Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Montana, Giovanni
- Venue
- NeuroImage
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-12
- Volume
- 163
- Pages
- 115-124
- ISSN
- 1053-8119 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2579617530
- Semantic Scholar
- 5d71c918db224e21982d9eb5ab2359735466959b
- Cited by
- 872
- References
- 72
- Citations by year
- 2026: 91 · 2025: 116 · 2024: 99 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 113 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 92 · 2019: 87 · 2018: 39 · 2017: 6
- FWCI
- 49.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- arxiv.org
- Licence
- Locations
- NeuroImage (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (acceptedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Pure Amsterdam UMC (submittedVersion)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- Medical Research Council
- European Commision’s Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013, 259749)
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)
- BioResource, Clinical Research Facility
- Biomedical Research Centre
- St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre
- Imperial College London from the Medical Research Council (MR/L022141/1)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Advanced MRI Techniques and Applications
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Functional Brain Connectivity Studies
- Keywords
- brain age prediction, brain aging, biomarkers, heritability, monozygotic and dizygotic twins, test-retest reliability, convolutional neural networks, gray matter volume, white matter volume, Gaussian process regression, healthy adults, cognitive impairment risk, neuroimaging
- MeSH terms
- Machine Learning, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Brain, Female, Humans, Image Processing, Computer-Assisted, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Middle Aged, Phenotype, Neural Networks, Computer, Young Adult
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