Transmission needs across a fully renewable European power system

Abstract

The residual load and excess power generation of 30 European countries with a 100% penetration of variable renewable energy sources are explored in order to quantify the benefit of power transmission between countries. Estimates are based on extensive weather data, which allows for modelling of hourly mismatches between the demand and renewable generation from wind and solar photovoltaics. For separated countries, balancing is required to cover around 24% of the total annual electricity consumption. This number can be reduced down to 15% once all countries are networked together with unconstrained interconnectors. The reduction represents the maximum possible benefit of transmission for the countries. The total Net Transfer Capacity of the unconstrained interconnectors is roughly 11.5 times larger than current values. However, constrained interconnector capacities 5.7 times larger than the current values are found to provide 98% of the maximum possible benefit of transmission. This motivates a detailed investigation of several constrained transmission capacity layouts to determine the export and import capabilities of countries participating in a fully renewable European electricity system.