COVID-19 cases prediction by using hybrid machine learning and beetle antennae search approach

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to further improve the current time-series prediction (forecasting) algorithms based on hybrids between machine learning and nature-inspired algorithms. After the recent COVID-19 outbreak, almost all countries were forced to impose strict measures and regulations in order to control the virus spread. Predicting the number of new cases is crucial when evaluating which measures should be implemented. The improved forecasting approach was then used to predict the number of the COVID-19 cases. The proposed prediction model represents a hybridized approach between machine learning, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and enhanced beetle antennae search swarm intelligence metaheuristics. The enhanced beetle antennae search is utilized to determine the parameters of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and to improve the overall performance of the prediction model. First, an enhanced beetle antennae search algorithm has been implemented that overcomes deficiencies of its original version. The enhanced algorithm was tested and validated against a wider set of benchmark functions and proved that it substantially outperforms original implementation. Afterwards, the proposed hybrid method for COVID-19 cases prediction was then evaluated using the World Health Organization’s official data on the COVID-19 outbreak in China. The proposed method has been compared against several existing state-of-the-art approaches that were tested on the same datasets. The proposed CESBAS-ANFIS achieved R2 score of 0.9763, which is relatively high when compared to the R2 value of 0.9645, achieved by FPASSA-ANFIS. To further evaluate the robustness of the proposed method, it has also been validated against two different datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in China and the USA. Simulation results and the comparative analysis show that the proposed hybrid method managed to outscore other sophisticated approaches that were tested on the same datasets and proved to be a useful tool for time-series prediction.