Everything you always wanted to know about evaluating prediction models (but were too afraid to ask)
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References 10 · Cited by 112
- Authors
- Vickers, A. J., & Cronin, A. M.
- Affiliations
- Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (US)
- Corresponding author
- Vickers, Andrew J.
- Venue
- Urology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-12
- Volume
- 76
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1298-1301
- ISSN
- 0090-4295 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2997853
- OpenAlex
- W2071727133
- Cited by
- 112
- References
- 10
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 3.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- Locations
- Urology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Prostate Cancer Foundation
- Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers (P50-CA92629)
- National Cancer Institute
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Inference
- Keywords
- prediction model evaluation, nomogram, prognostic model, model validation, calibration, discrimination (statistics), risk prediction, prostate cancer, kidney cancer, bladder cancer, statistical principles, overfitting, external validation, risk stratification, risk communication tools
- MeSH terms
- Calibration, Forecasting, Humans, Predictive Value of Tests, Probability, Reproducibility of Results, Models, Statistical, Area Under Curve, Nomograms
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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