Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis.
Open accessAbstract
Most pandemics--eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza--originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.
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References 99 · Cited by 1,070
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- [20]Barber MR Guan Y Magor KE Peiris JS Webster RG The role of animal surveillance in influenza preparedness: the consequence of inapparent infection in ducks and pigs Influenza Other Respir Viruses 5 suppl 1 2011 8 11 21751455
- [37]Fenner F Human monkeypox, a newly discovered human virus disease Morse SS Emerging viruses 1993 Oxford University Press Oxford 176 183
- Authors
- Morse, S. S., Mazet, J. A., Woolhouse, M., Parrish, C. R., Carroll, D., Karesh, W. B., Zambrana-Torrelio, C., Lipkin, W. I., & Daszak, P.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- University of California, Davis (US)
- Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution (GB)
- Cornell University (US)
- United States Agency for International Development (US)
- International Union for Conservation of Nature (CH)
- EcoHealth Alliance (US)
- Corresponding author
- Daszak, Peter
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-12
- Volume
- 380
- Issue
- 9857
- Pages
- 1956-1965
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC3712877
- OpenAlex
- W2098459942
- Cited by
- 1,070
- References
- 99
- Citations by year
- 2026: 47 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 88 · 2023: 95 · 2022: 127 · 2021: 170 · 2020: 147 · 2019: 51 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 49 · 2016: 42 · 2015: 50 · 2014: 60 · 2013: 34 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 7.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- US Agency for International Development (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT project (GHN-A-009-00010-00)
- National Institutes of Health (AI079231, AI57158)
- Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases award from the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health (2R01-TW005869)
- National Science Foundation Human and Social Dynamics programme (BCS-0826779)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Global Security and Public Health
- Keywords
- pandemic forecasting, zoonotic emergence, emerging viruses, reservoir hosts, disease surveillance, risk assessment, pandemic prevention, diagnostic technologies
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Environmental Monitoring, Health Policy, Humans, International Cooperation, Travel, Virus Diseases, Global Health, Zoonoses, Blood-Borne Pathogens, Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Pandemics
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