Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990–2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control
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Background Countries have agreed on reduction targets for tobacco smoking stipulated in the WHO global monitoring framework, for achievement by 2025. In an analysis of data for tobacco smoking prevalence from nationally representative survey data, we aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of recent trends in tobacco smoking, projections for future tobacco smoking, and country-level estimates of probabilities of achieving tobacco smoking targets. Methods We used a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression modelling approach using data from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control to assess trends from 1990 to 2010 and made projections up to 2025 for current tobacco smoking, daily tobacco smoking, current cigarette smoking, and daily cigarette smoking for 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women. Modelling was implemented in Python with DisMod-MR and PyMC. We estimated trends in country-specific prevalence of tobacco use, projections for future tobacco use, and probabilities for decreased tobacco use, increased tobacco use, and achievement of targets for tobacco control from posterior distributions. Findings During the most recent decade (2000-10), the prevalence of tobacco smoking in men fell in 125 (72%) countries, and in women fell in 156 (88%) countries. If these trends continue, only 37 (21%) countries are on track to achieve their targets for men and 88 (49%) are on track for women, and there would be an estimated 1·1 billion current tobacco sm…
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Tobacco control has been identified as a crucial and necessary part of reaching global non-communicable disease goals, with one in six non-communicable disease-related deaths being attributable to smoking tobacco use.
“Tobacco control has been identified as a crucial and necessary part of reaching these goals, with one in six non-communicable disease-related deaths being attributable to smoking tobacco use.”
Other studies have used similar data synthesis approaches to project smoking trends from 2010 to 2025 in 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women.
“Since then, other studies have used similar data synthesis approaches to project smoking trends from 2010 to 2025 in 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women.30”
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- Authors
- Bilano, V., Gilmour, S., Moffiet, T., d'Espaignet, E. T., Stevens, G. A., Commar, A., Tuyl, F., Hudson, I., & Shibuya, K.
- Affiliations
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- University of Newcastle Australia (AU)
- World Health Organization (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Shibuya, Kenji
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2015-03
- Volume
- 385
- Issue
- 9972
- Pages
- 966-976
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W2116515517
- Cited by
- 463
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 44 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 78 · 2019: 49 · 2018: 52 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 33 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 35.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- figshare.com
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RMIT Research Repository (RMIT University Library) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Swinburne figshare (Swinburne University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- NOVA (University of Newcastle Australia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (26030101)
- Australian Government
- Department of Health and Social Care
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (25253051)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Keywords
- smoking prevalence, smoking trends, Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, sex differences in smoking, low- and middle-income countries, tobacco epidemic, smoking cessation
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Epidemiologic Methods, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Smoking, Global Health, Sex Distribution, Young Adult
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