Mass gathering events and reducing further global spread of COVID-19: a political and public health dilemma

Abstract

1094 www.thelancet.com Vol 395 April 4, 2020 The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that first emerged in Wuhan in China’s Hubei province has quickly spread to the rest of China and many other countries. Within 3 months, more than 125 000 people have been infected and the death toll had reached over 4600 worldwide on March 12, 2020. In an attempt to contain the virus, the Chinese Government has made unprecedented efforts and invested enormous resources and these containment efforts have stemmed the spread of the disease. As of March 12, 2020, malaria-endemic regions in Africa have reported a few imported COVID-19 cases including in Nigeria, Senegal, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Africa needs to be prepared Preparedness is essential for malaria-endemic regions during the COVID-19 pandemic distancing interventions, including nationwide school closures and cancellation of public gatherings, was associated with a 30% reduction in the transmission rate. However, it increased after the mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. Given the uncertainties surrounding the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic across the country, efforts to sustain online learning and remote working in combination with enhanced infection control measures in health-care settings and nursing homes could aid in mitigating the spread of the virus and gaining control of the epidemic’s chains of transmission. In the USA, past influenza pandemics have spread as a series of waves of varying durations and intensities, which have been associated with seasons and school cycles. Because respiratory viruses, including other coronaviruses, are known to respond to seasonal variation, we might expect that increasing temperatures in the summer could reduce the intrinsic transmissibility of the novel coronavirus to some extent. In the context of a novel virus, warmer weather alone is unlikely to sufficiently mitigate the transmission rate and interrupt community transmission in the absence of social distancing strategies. Perhaps the most reasonable scenario ahead of us is that the transmission rate will decline during the next few months, partly driven by social distancing measures, a scenario that is reminiscent of the influenza 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. Close monitoring of the transmission potential of the virus on the basis of reliable and publicly available data in near real-time will be key to short-term forecasts and sound public health decisions.